Labor's Medicare scare campaign has invited the Coalition to frame the last week of this campaign as a matter of trust – and Malcolm Turnbull has grabbed that opportunity with gusto.
The official Coalition campaign launch on Sunday focused on who voters could trust to control immigration, stop union thuggery and above all manage the economy in uncertain times.
Malcolm Turnbull had to avoid mentioning the social issues that divide his supporters from that of his predecessor, Tony Abbott. Credit: Andrew Meares
"There has never been a more exciting time to be an Australian," Mr Turnbull said. "But only if your optimism and confidence is matched with a clear-eyed understanding of what makes the economy work, what makes businesses invest and hire, and an ability to see the world as it is, not how you would like it to be."
Mr Turnbull tried to appear statesmanlike, pitching to the broader electorate, counselling them not to "roll the dice" on anyone other than Coalition candidates in both houses.
By contrast, Mr Shorten's launch a week earlier targeted Labor's true believers who want social progress and to prioritise spending on schools and hospitals. Opinion polls and Fairfax Media's YourVote survey show people prefer Labor on those issues as well as the NBN and climate.
Yet at the Labor launch Mr Shorten's 100 positive policies played second fiddle to his claim that voters could not trust the Coalition on Medicare privatisation.
That claim threatens to overshadow his team's economic case, which is backed up by independently scrutinised costings released on Sunday.
The Herald has supported most of Labor's economic plan, with the caveat that some company tax cuts should have been considered. We recognise that the government includes "zombie" measures to make its figures look better. And Labor has better structural reforms to negative gearing and capital gains tax that help the budget in the longer term.
"The government won't show you their 10-year figures because they won't add up," shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said on Sunday.
But Labor is struggling to reassure voters on the economy. One reason is that Labor deficits would be higher than the forecast Coalition ones for the next three years. And despite Labor's strong record during the global financial crisis in 2008-09, voters tend to trust the Coalition with the economy.
Mr Turnbull is playing that to his advantage. Still, his invocation of economic uncertainty from the Brexit vote was overegging the case. His use of Margaret Thatcher's "expect the unexpected" line about the likely effects of the "shockwave" were similarly designed to scare voters.
In his pitch on stability, Mr Turnbull railed against any Labor-Greens-independent alliance, even though he had to avoid mentioning the social issues that divide his supporters from that of his predecessor, Tony Abbott. The former prime minister looked testy as Mr Turnbull pleaded for a strong mandate – one which would allow him to lead the Liberal Party towards the social centre.
But Mr Turnbull went to great lengths to show the right that he would maintain the Coalition's tough refugee policy. The 700 days without a successful boat arrival allowed him to boast that there were now no children in immigration detention.
Perhaps the most telling message was that Mr Shorten personally could not be trusted. The Labor leader had done "special deals for his union mates" and "Labor and the Greens will fight tooth and nail to protect their paymasters".
Above all, Mr Turnbull claimed unions were "preying" on older Australians by ringing them to further the Medicare scare: "Labor has put a lie at the create of its campaign. That's not an alternative government, that's an opposition unfit to govern."
Earlier, Liberal deputy Julie Bishop targeted Mr Shorten's integrity, reminding voters of his testimony at the trade unions royal commission, the "cosy deal" with the Transport Workers Union on truck safety, and the union movement's attempts to control volunteer fire-fighters in Victoria. He did not have "the moral fibre" to be prime minister, she said.
Mr Shorten entered this campaign with positive policies. He has exceeded most expectations. But the Medicare scare and Labor's union links raise questions of trust. Had Mr Abbott still been Coalition leader, it would be a roughly equal problem for both sides. Mr Turnbull, though, is driving home what he sees as his personal advantage over Mr Shorten.