Crisis time in Kerala; rice bowl Palakkad worst affected

Kerala is anticipating a significant drop in agricultural output as a result of the successive failures of the South-West and North-East monsoons in 2016.

While the June-September season left a gaping rain deficit of 34 per cent, the October-December season that followed has proved even more disastrous, with a shortfall of 61 per cent.

Such a significant departure from the norm is causing an unprecedented crisis to communities habituated to living in water-surplus areas such as Kerala, notes the State Emergency Operations Centre (SEOC).

The State government is gearing up for the worst, and had declared the entire State drought-affected as early as October 31, soon after the North-East monsoon showed signs of straying.

According to a preliminary estimate of the Agriculture Department, at least 17,128.76 hectares of farm land were affected by drought conditions from October 31 to December 20, 2016.

An estimated 49,276 farmers suffered crop damage to the tune of ₹90.25 crore during this period. The worst damage is reported from the rice bowl of Palakkad district (7,027 hectares of farmland hit) followed by Thiruvananthapuram (4,714 hectares).

Most irrigation dams in the State are already down to 50 per cent of their storage capacity. Saline intrusion is a major threat to the low-lying paddy lands.

It is not unusual for Kerala to experience seasonal drought-like conditions during the summer months. Even in the years of normal rainfall, water scarcity problems are severe in the midland and highland regions.

In the period from 1881 to 2000, the State experienced 66 drought years, according to a drought assessment report prepared by the SEOC.

In the recent past, until 2012, the State had not experienced severe meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts.

A 29 per cent deficit from June to December in 2012 had led to an agricultural and hydrological drought that peaked during the August 2012 -May 2013 period.

For the first time, in December 2012, the India Met Department mapped the State as a ‘mild to moderately arid’ geography. Prior to this, an official declaration of drought had been made in March 2010 and December 2003.

In 2010, 17 taluks were declared drought-affected while in 2003, seven districts and as many taluks apart from 119 villages were declared drought-hit.

Other known meteorological drought years are 1983, 1986, 1987, 1992, 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2004. The aridity index of different parts has increased, which is an indication of an increase in the frequency of drought years, the SEOC says.

Although the deviation in the annual rainfall received in any year from the long-term average is very small, there is considerable variation in the rainfall availability during different seasons.

A trend analysis on rainfall data over the last 100 years reveals that there is a significant decrease in most regions, especially in January, July and November.

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