2017 NHL playoff projections: Capitals over Penguins, Rangers over Senators

So how will the second round most likely play out? Here’s a look.

Eastern Conference

Washington Capitals (Metropolitan No. 1 seed) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (Metropolitan No. 2 seed)

Capitals have a 56.8 percent chance at winning the series.

This is the matchup everyone wanted to see, and due to the NHL’s silly playoff format, the two best teams will face off in the second round, giving Washington a chance to move on to its first conference finals since 1998 at the expense of a bitter rival — the Penguins went on to win the Stanley Cup last season after defeating the Capitals in the second round.

This Caps and Penguins series might be a classic. It shouldn’t be happening in the second round.

Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby will get the lion’s share of the attention, but the eventual winner will be the team that gets the most production from players other than its stars.

When the Penguins beat the Capitals last year, their third line of Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino and Phil Kessel produced 18 points, with all three of its members registering multiple goals and assists. Hagelin is unavailable this time around because of a lower-body injury, but Pittsburgh got significant contributions from Jake Guentzel (five goals, one assist) and Bryan Rust (four goals) in Round 1.

Washington, meanwhile, had one bottom-six forward, Tom Wilson, produce more than one goal against Toronto.

How the Capitals tilted the series and eliminated the Maple Leafs

The Capitals’ best bottom-six trio during the regular season was Lars Eller, Brett Connolly and Andre Burakovsky. Those three put almost 61 percent of all even-strength shot attempts in the team’s favor after adjusting for score and special teams. They also produced shots of high quality with an expected goal rate of 2.8 per 60 minutes. Only three other line combinations tilted the ice as well or better with more expected production. If the Capitals are going to exorcise their demons, this might be the line to do it.

Ottawa Senators (Atlantic No. 2 seed) vs. New York Rangers (Wild-card No. 1)

Rangers have a 58.4 percent chance at winning the series.

Rangers’ netminder Henrik Lundqvist was underwhelming during the regular season. His save percentage (.910) hit a career low, and it was unknown how much the Blueshirts could expect from him in the postseason. Turns out, the team got a vintage performance.

Lundqvist stopped 195 of the 206 shots (.947) he faced in the series against the Canadiens despite a higher rate of high-danger shots, including second-chance opportunities off rebounds and rush shots following a giveaway or takeaway in the defensive zone.

The good news for New York is Ottawa wasn’t as good as Montreal at creating scoring chances or quality shots. The Senators averaged 2.4 expected goals per 60 minutes during the regular season, 10th fewest in the league, while the Canadiens ranked fourth (2.8).

Western Conference

Anaheim Ducks (Pacific No. 1 seed) vs. Edmonton Oilers (Pacific No. 2 seed)

Oilers have a 55 percent chance at winning the series.

The league’s best scorer, Connor McDavid, will go up against one the league’s best two-way forwards, Selke finalist Ryan Kesler, in a dynamic matchup that will be the key to the series.

McDavid was the NHL’s only 100-point scorer during the regular season, tallying 30 goals with a league-leading 70 assists for Edmonton. He’s continued producing in the playoffs with four points (two goals and two assists) in six games. Kesler helped Anaheim put more than half (54.5 percent) of even-strength shot attempts in the Ducks’ favor while outscoring opponents, typically the opposition’s top forwards, by a score of 48 to 39.

The playoffs aren’t supposed to be easy. And Round 1 proved it for Caps.

McDavid got the better of Kesler and his linemates during this year’s five regular season matchups, outscoring them 3 to 1 at even strength with a plus-12 shot differential, giving Edmonton a 3-2 lead in the regular season series.

In fact, during his two NHL seasons, McDavid’s line has scored almost as much against Kesler (3.1 even-strength goals per 60 minutes) as they have without Kesler on the ice (3.5). Kesler, meanwhile, sees a huge dip in production, scoring 1.6 goals per 60 minutes against McDavid but 2.1 goals per 60 against any other opponent.

St. Louis Blues (Central No. 3 seed) vs. Nashville Predators (Wild-card No. 2)

Blues have a 61.3 percent chance at winning the series.

The Blues power play was anemic in the first round against the Minnesota Wild, converting just once in 15 opportunities on the power play during the first round. Recent history suggests it will struggle against Nashville, too: the Blues were 1 for 14 with the man-advantage in five games against the Predators during the regular season.

However, St. Louis generated quality chances against the Wild, chances that should have resulted in three power-play goals scored rather than the one. And those are the chances Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne struggles with the most.

During the regular season, Rinne posted a save percentage of .859 on the penalty kill, the ninth lowest among 29 goaltenders with at least 200 penalty-kill minutes played. He stopped 16 of 75 chances in the slot or the crease, giving him the 11th lowest high-danger save percentage (.787) in the league.

Win probabilities are based on a team’s Pythagorean win percentage using goals for and goals allowed.