TRENTON -- Republican Kim Guadagno is vying to become only the second woman in New Jersey history to be elected governor.
That makes one problem she's facing so glaring: Polls show she's struggling with women voters.
A Quinnipiac Poll from this past week showed 65 percent of likely women voters in the Garden State back Guadagno's main opponent, Democrat Phil Murphy, while she draws only 29 percent.
That, Quinnipiac concluded, has helped Murphy stake a 20-point lead overall heading into the final days of the Nov. 7 race to succeed Gov. Chris Christie.
By comparison, the poll found the gap among male voters was much smaller: 49 percent like Murphy, while 45 percent go for Guadagno.
Guadagno rejected the poll, saying its methodology was flawed.
But other surveys show a similar story. A Monmouth University poll from earlier this month found women pick Murphy over Guadagno, 56 to 31 percent. It was 46 to 44 among men.
And a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind Poll from earlier this month showed the split among women's 56 to 31 for Murphy. It was 43 to 38 among men.
Deborah Walsh, the director of the Center for American Women and Politics at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, said the results are hardly odd. They're actually "what you'd expect," she said.
"The gender gap is not about the gender of the candidate," Walsh explained. "It's about the gender of the voters."
Walsh noted that a trend has emerged since 1980: Women tend to prefer Democratic candidates.
She said Republican incumbent Gov. Christie Whitman saw similar numbers when she narrowly defeated Democrat Jim McGreevey in 1997 -- even though, like Guadagno, Whitman was a "pro-choice, moderate Republican."
Walsh said it's driven largely by economics.
"Women see themselves as more economically vulnerable than men," she said. "They may be more insecure in their employment. So they tend to support the party that supports that social safety net they imagine they may need at some point in their life -- Social Security, health insurance, family leave."
Pete Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, said Guadagno, the state's lieutenant governor, is hurt by two other things: her connections to Christie and President Donald Trump, a fellow Republican.
Both Christie and Trump have dismal approval ratings in the heavily Democratic state, especially with women. The recent Quinnipiac poll showed only 11 percent of female likely New Jersey voters approve of Christie's performance, while only 27 percent approve of Trump's.
"It's not that complicated," Brown said. "The Republican brand is just down in New Jersey."
"Republicans do well in races when they're able to win independents and are able to chip away at Democratic votes," he added. "It's the exact opposite right now."
Krista Jenkins, director of the FDU poll, said there's a "demographic reality" that there are more Democrats and Democratic-leaning Republicans in New Jersey.
"I don't think you can overlook the unique time in history we're experiencing," Jenkins said. "Most people in this state are pretty sour on Trump, and women in particular."
"Even though she's a woman, she's not known for her strong protests over Trump because, by definition, she can't," Jenkins added.
Guadagno, however, said she does not believe that more women want Murphy to be governor.
"I do not think that's the case," she said at the news conference. She said the Quinnipiac poll "doesn't even come close" to inernal polling by both political parties.
She declined to disclose what her internal polls show when it comes to support from women.
"Let me tell you what I believe women believe in," Guadagno added. "I think I can do that as a mother, and as a mother of three children, and as a working mom, and as a professional person for all of my life until I got involved in politics."
"I believe women care about their families, they care about safety in their communities, they care about whether their kids are going to get a good quality education," she continued. "They care about whether they will have a job once they get that education. And those are exactly the same things I care about."
Matt Arco may be reached at marco@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @MatthewArco or Facebook.
Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @johnsb01.