Another winter storm is on the way, and it could bring more than a half-foot of snow to parts of New Jersey. (NJ Advance Media file photo)
By Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Wednesday morning updates:
- N.J. school closings, delayed openings due to snow (Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2018)
- Snow total predictions shift in latest update, but expect messy commute
A winter storm warning has been issued for Sussex County, where a half-foot of snow or more is expected to blanket parts of the area as a complex storm system moves through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The storm is forming more slowly than forecasters had originally expected, giving most of New Jersey a long lull on Tuesday but for many the possibility of a sloppy morning commute on Wednesday.
In its latest snow forecast map, the National Weather Service boosted its snowfall projections for Sussex and Warren counties, kept its projections for other northern counties the same and lowered its snowfall outlook for most of central and southern New Jersey.
For many areas south and east of Philadelphia, forecasters said, temperatures will be warm enough for the precipitation to start as rain or a mix of rain and snow, keeping the accumulations low.
Here are the latest snowfall projections from the National Weather Service's regional office in Mount Holly, covering most of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. This map was last updated at 9:40 p.m. Tuesday. Snow projections for northeastern New Jersey and New York City are included in another map below. (National Weather Service)
Latest snowfall projections
Here's how the weather service's official snow forecast changed since early Tuesday morning:
- Northern areas of Sussex County are now forecast to get hit with as much as 6 to 8 inches of snow.
- Warren County is now forecast to receive 4 to 6 inches of snow.
- Mercer County is now forecast to get 1 to 2 inches of snow, a decrease from earlier forecasts.
- Monmouth County is now forecast to get less than 1 inch of snow, a decrease from earlier forecasts.
- Eastern Essex, Hudson County, Middlesex County and New York City are now forecast to get 1 to 2 inches of snow, a decrease from earlier forecasts.
This is the National Weather Service's latest snow forecast for northeastern sections of New Jersey, along with New York City, Long Island and southern Connecticut, for Tuesday evening into early Wednesday evening. The forecast map was updated at 3 p.m. Tuesday. (National Weather Service)
Main impact area
Forecasters from the weather service say the main impact area of the snowstorm will be along and north of Interstate 78. They are warning commuters that the Wednesday morning rush hour could be a messy one, with the steadiest snow expected to fall during the morning hours.
"Even though it's not a big storm, the impact could be high because of the timing," said Sean Rowland, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks, a private forecasting company based in Warren County.
Rowland said some areas of New Jersey, particularly the northwestern counties like Sussex and Warren, could see some light snow showers or flurries this afternoon, but many areas could stay dry until after the nighttime hours.
Snow timing
Light snow is expected to start falling in the northern region of New Jersey after midnight, and the snow could become steadier before sunrise Wednesday, said Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service.
Much of central and southern New Jersey could get a few hours of rain after midnight, with snow expected to begin as temperatures cool down by about 6 a.m. or 8 a.m., Gaines said.
"Even with lighter accumulations further south, we might have some slick spots out there,” he said.
The snow is expected to end during the mid-morning to late morning on Wednesday.
Here's how much snow AccuWeather is predicting for the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions. (AccuWeather)
No 'bomb cyclone' this time
Some of the snow from this storm is coming from a clipper system that is pushing its way from the Great Lakes region to the eastern United States, forecasters said. The clipper system is expected to interact with a low-pressure system that is developing off the coast of New Jersey.
Although the low-pressure system is forecast to intensify when it forms on Wednesday morning and moves up to New England, it will not be as strong as the massive Jan. 4 snowstorm that went through a deep strengthening process known as bombogenesis. That factor prompted many weather experts to refer to that storm as a "bomb cyclone."
"Bombogenesis is not expected with the (current) storm," said Kristina Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.
She noted, however, if the storm strengthens quickly enough, a few inches of snow could fall on New York City and surrounding areas of the region on Wednesday. Far higher amounts of snow are expected in New England states.
Winter storm warning
A winter storm warning is in effect in Sussex County from Tuesday afternoon through 11 a.m. Wednesday. Most of the accumulating snow is expected to fall after midnight, and the snow could be heavy at times in the morning.
Forecasters say hazardous driving conditions are possible in the Sussex region.
Winter weather advisories
The following areas are under winter weather advisories, with forecasters alerting drivers that the snow can cause travel problems.
- Warren County: Tuesday afternoon through 11 a.m. Wednesday.
- Hunterdon, Morris and Somerset: 8 p.m. Tuesday through noon Wednesday.
- Bergen, Passaic, western Essex and western Union: 6 p.m. Tuesday through noon Wednesday.
Note: Hudson County, eastern Essex, eastern Union and New York City are no longer under a winter weather advisory.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
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