In Shivamogga city, will caste arithmetic add up in 3-cornered clash?

SHIVAMOGGA: It's a three-cornered contest in Shivamogga City assembly constituency in more than one sense. The BJP, JD(S) and Congress candidates are from the three different castes Kurubas, Lingayats and Brahmins, respectively, which have a significant presence in the constituency.
The result: Vote seeking has turned into a virtual street fight in a city that has grown exponentially over the last decade.

Lingayat (35,000), Brahmin (30,000) and Kuruba (18,000) votes constitute one third of the electorate. Muslims though are the biggest chunk with 55,000 votes, followed by SC/STs (40,000) and Vokkaligas (15,000). Surprisingly, the city which is bang in the centre of Karnataka has as many as 19,000 Tamilian voters.

A reading of the ground situation in Shivamogga City suggests that BJP's bigwig K S Eshwarappa is fighting a tough battle in the face of a shrewd caste calculations Congress and JD(S) have resorted to while choosing their candidates.

Eshwarappa is heavily banking upon the polarization of votes and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to weave his magic to see him through. Confident that middle class and educated Brahmin voters are in his party's kitty, Eshwarappa is trying to make in-roads into the Congress vote bank by focusing on the 44 'slums' in the city and assuring slumdwellers title deeds to their small 10 ft x20 ft houses.

Claiming that the fight is 'almost' won even before it has begun, the BJP leader, who was reduced to fourth position in 2013, says Hindutva and Modi have touched off an unprecedented pro-BJP wave.

"I do agree that there is polarization of votes but the aura of Modi is waning due to false promises of creating jobs and financial security to citizens," says Congress MLA K B Prasanna Kumar, who hails from Brahmin community. Kumar though is slightly worried and hesitant to accept that caste will be a factor.

"If caste is the criteria then JD(S) candidate H N Niranjan, a Lingayat, should get the second highest number votes and it will not be a straight fight between me and Eshwarappa," he says.

Niranjan, however, is campaigning that the fight is between him and Eshwarappa and he will ensure the latter is defeated by a huge margin.

"Congress considers that by fielding a Brahmin, it has cornered Brahmin votes and thinks it will win because of the support of Muslims. But then, these numbers do not add up as Brahmins have always sided with the BJP and Muslim votes will be split between JD(S) and Congress," said a BJP leader.