With the huge ongoing investment to advance the development of self-driving cars, the title question might seem irrelevant. That said, there are a number of relative factors that should be given some serious thought.
In fact, there are a number of good reasons why self-driving cars should be preferred to “normal” cars, such as:
- Being much safer than normal cars. This is true primarily because self-driving cars stick to the rules; no speeding, running red lights, lack of signaling, sudden directional changes, or distracted driving. Indeed, they might also be safer because computer reaction time is faster than humans’, and they can cross-communicate to quickly determine the best course of action. This scenario is likely to even out (at least partially) with a failure to manage marginal situations and mechanical problems. Nonetheless, the aforementioned “rules of the road” is the main reason for their increased safety.
- Being more energy savvy. Self-driving cars don’t accelerate un-necessarily and utilize braking more effectively, allowing them to safely tail the car in front of them to decrease drag and improve fuel efficiency.
- Having the ability to be orchestrated in heavy traffic areas, leveraging available road infrastructure to the fullest.
- Being connected, thus allowing for programmable maintenance to keep them driving with scheduled downtime.
For most drivers, these “positive” points are interpreted as having “negative” aspects. Drivers easily become impatient and frustrated when in a hurry and are unable to increase acceleration, or if a car is waiting at a red light where nobody is approaching the road crossing. In effect, a lot of people might say that “self-driving cars rob me the pleasure of driving.” Clearly, all of these points relate to a personal feeling about what driving is or should be. There will surely be plenty of people that would be perfectly contented with their car morphing into a taxi.
Over time, I guess most people would come to appreciate the advantages of riding a self-driving car, but at that point they likely would lose the personal attachment that so many people have with their cars—a primary motivating factor that drives people to purchase a particular type of vehicle.
How much market size would a self-driving car with potentially breathtaking acceleration and 150 miles per hour top speed capture? Very little, I would suppose, since being self-driven it would never accelerate to its potential, nor drive at breakneck speed!
Self-driving cars are likely to change the way we look at a car. Different countries will have varying perceptions due to differences in cultures. That said, one can assume that the general personal and possessive feelings most people have for their car are going to change dramatically. People will no longer drive their cars, but rather utilize them as a transportation provider, similar to catching a cab, taking a bus, or booking an airline flight today. In effect, individual control will be relinquished in the interest and convenience of a provided service that takes you from A to B.
Of course, with longer transportation times spent in autonomous vehicles, extra services will become even more important. Autonomous vehicles will need to provide a smooth ride and explore ways to ensure people don’t get dizzy while reading or using a computer. Some may want the interior space to be tailored for entertainment, while others may prefer an office-type setting. Car manufacturers are already looking into this change of value perception.
Once acceleration and speed are no longer key selling points, what will be motivating future buyers? This is not a moot point, because the profitability of automakers depends on the attractiveness of their car to the “driver”. Today, the driver determines the criteria and makes the decision on what car to buy, but with self-driving cars the driver’s role disappears.
There is more to it than that. Once it’s accepted that a car is no longer special, and just a commodity to provide transportation from A to B, people are likely to question the “need” for owning a car. Today, cars sit idle by the sidewalk, in the garage, or at the office most of the time. It’s estimated that they aren’t’ in use nearly 80% of the time, yet people pay the 100 percent price because it is their car, and an individual statement about themselves.
With a landscape of self-driving cars, does it make sense to own a car? If convenient and personalized transportation can be available on demand, why bother to actually own a car? Several studies analyzed the use of cars in cities and found out that a fleet of shared cars of only 40 percent to 60 percent of the existing cars in use would be plenty to satisfy those cities’ populations. Future self-driving cars would be much better than today’s car sharing where you need to walk to the nearest one, as they would be able to pick riders up from their locations.
This is clearly a very good news in terms of saving resources and decreasing congestion. For example, in Italy a good part of the congestion on streets is due to cars parked on the side of the road, often in double lanes. Imagine the benefits of halving the number of cars in a city.
At the same time, this is very bad news for car manufacturers that will see their markets shrinking. Indeed, the situation for car manufacturer is not rosy. They will have to face:
- A lower interest from users to buy high performance cars (ones usually having a premium price and very good margin).
- A lower demand for cars in general.
- A lower replacement rate because of decreased emotional attachment with cars.
- A shifting value perception with customers more interested in non-car features, (like entertainment, ambient, business environment), features that car manufacturers are not expert in.
This shift is clearly foreseen by car manufacturers that are studying behind closed doors how to transition towards the new business scenario. While it’s true that traditional cars, and drivers refusing to jump on the new wagon, will be around for some time, the past has shown that changes occur very slowly and then suddenly can become like an avalanche. Look at flat screen television, look at cell phones, look at ATM. Each change, once fueled by a reliable technology and an economic incentive, became dependent on a cultural shift to reach the masses and market penetration followed on an exponential curve. It can be a slow process, and then all hell breaks loose.
In the coming years, cultural adoption will slow down the penetration of self-driving cars. In part, it is related to the loss of that driving feeling that is important to so many people (Italians for sure!), as well as the loss of a sense ownership and personal identification with a car. Another part is related to trust. Hopping on a self-driving car requires shifting trust from oneself (absolute trust), or from a human driver (cabbie), to a machine. Today, most people are not yet prepared to take that step.
Perception is clearly playing a strong role and good advertising, particularly supported by proven facts like increased safety, and backed up by lower insurance premiums, will surely help.
At the same time, self-driving cars are computers on wheels, and as computers they might be hacked. Hacking is not just a concern for individual self-driving car owners, who will need to take action to ensure their car remains securely connected. The worry also exists that other self-driving cars could be hacked and then communicate in ways that fool other cars into taking actions that result in bad outcomes. For example, a hacked vehicle could communicate that it was intending to stop at an intersection, so that another car takes the right of way and then it does the complete opposite and accelerates through the crossing.
These are very thorny issues that will need to be tackled. In an ideal world, one could trust everybody, and this would result in much less complexity and cost. Unfortunately, we are living in a world where each self-driving car will have to consider its environment as basically unpredictable.
These are issues that are being addressed by the Symbiotic Autonomous Systems Initiative at IEEE/FDC. Currently, we are at a stage where questions have to be formulated before attempting local answers. The IEEE, with its vast constituency, including associations with sociologists, psychologists, economists, regulators, and through engagement with the user community—particularly the younger generation—can take the lead in helping foster this transformation. By pulling together industry and academia, connecting research with innovation, and innovation with the marketplace, it’s possible we’ll soon see the beginnings of a cultural shift.