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    Is Delhi ready for 8.5 temblor? Afraid not

    Synopsis

    The scientific warnings that a high-intensity earthquake is likely to strike the Himalayas in the ‘near future’ have found backing in a new study.

    earthquake-indiatimesIndiatimes
    “All the government buildings are currently assessed to be safe, including from earthquake,” a source said.
    (This story originally appeared in on Dec 19, 2018)
    NEW DELHI: The scientific warnings that a high-intensity earthquake is likely to strike the Himalayas in the ‘near future’ have found backing in a new study that highlights how the “enormous stacking up of strain” in the region could lead to at least one earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or higher.

    The study, headed, by seismologist C P Rajendran of Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Bengaluru, noted that after a massive earthquake sometime between 1315 and 1440, the central Himalayan region has stayed seismically quiet, though this implies that an enormous strain has built up in the geological region.


    For Delhi, this is ominous because it is highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Experts say only around 20% of the city’s buildings might withstand an 8.5-magnitude temblor. The capital is susceptible because it lies on three fault lines: the Sohna, Mathura and Delhi-Moradabad fault lines. Worse, Gurgaon has seven fault lines running across it.

    “In the aftermath of the 2001 Gujarat quake, Delhi’s seismic classification was revised from Zone III to Zone IV. However, all buildings designed and built before this, while standing, aren’t compliant with the current seismic codes. I would say that only around 10% of the buildings in Delhi are earthquake resistant,” cautioned Manit Rastogi of architectural company Morphogenesis and founder member of the green rating system, GRIHA Council.

    Delhi attempted retrofitting of old buildings in 2008 and in 2015 after the Nepal quake when some complexes like Delhi Secretariat, Delhi Police and PWD headquarters, Ludlow Castle School, Vikas Bhawan, Guru Tegh Bahadur Hospital and the Divisional Commissioner’s Office were strengthened. PWD, which carries out regular strength assessment of government buildings, said retrofitting includes making the buildings accessible to differently abled persons.

    Though the majority of Delhi government buildings are not seismic ready, PWD sources claimed they are under regular annual observation and maintenance, and regular work is carried to ensure they remain safe. “All the government buildings are currently assessed to be safe, including from earthquake,” a source said.

    An older Union ministry of earth sciences study put locations on the Yamuna floodplain at highest risk in the event of an earthquake, including the highly populated residential colonies of east Delhi. Other high-risk places include Lutyens’ Delhi, Sarita Vihar, Paschim Vihar, Wazirabad, Karol Bagh and Janakpuri. In terms of relatively safer areas, locations like JNU, AIIMS, Chattarpur, Naraina and Vasant Kunj might be able to withstand a mightly quake.

    The North Delhi Municipal Corporation’s annual dangerous building survey unearthed 229 precarious buildings in its areas. While SDMC reported zero ‘unsafe’ structures, EDMC reported one building. “People should hire structural engineers to quake proof their buildings, even if these are being constructed in unauthorised areas,” advised a senior corporation official.





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