Everyone is right about China's mixed-up economy

A policeman stands guard in front of a portrait of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong in Tiananmen Square. Photo: Bloomberg

Pete Sweeney

China bears and bulls can pick their data in the Year of the Pig. Stock markets are charging; bonds defaulting. Lunar New Year holiday spending was weak, but January exports boomed. State-owned companies and contradictory industrial and monetary policies are muddying traditional performance measures. They betray an economy going in two directions at once.

Economic distortions introduced by the festival, which falls in January or February depending on the year, make it dangerous to extrapolate trends. But 2019 was extreme even by Chinese standards.