While it’s difficult for political commentators to resist the temptation to handicap the 2020 Democratic presidential race, the truth is that it’s effectively pointless until former Vice President Joe Biden announces whether he is running.
Put simply, Biden is the 800-pound gorilla in the Democratic race. He’s led by a comfortable margin in every national poll, as well as polls in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. There are major donors, talented staffers, and lawmakers who are no doubt sitting on the sidelines for now, waiting for him to make his move.
Once he announces his intentions, it’s going to have a dramatic impact on the race as we currently conceive of it, no matter what.
Should he run, it’s possible he will crowd out other candidates and leverage his institutional advantages all the way to the convention. On the other hand, right now he’s benefiting from universal name recognition and years of sympathetic news coverage. Once he announces, that will change, and he’ll undergo more scrutiny. He’ll face questions not only about his age, but about how he’s a relic from an earlier, pre-woke, version of the Democratic Party. Who can benefit from any collapse?
If he doesn’t run, then that immediately disrupts the polls, in which he is currently sucking up around 30 percent of support. Where do people who are starting out preferring Biden end up? At the same time as redistributing a large chunk of the Democratic electorate, should he choose to take a pass, it will free up a lot of campaign talent. Also, many lawmakers who may be reluctant to endorse somebody other than Biden without knowing his intentions, will now be up for grabs.
Without having a final answer from Biden, people would be wise to discount any sort of predictions about the Democratic race.
