INDIANAPOLIS — A non-free agent, non-Joe Flacco question has loomed over Denver Broncos general manager John Elway during this week’s scouting combine.
Can the Broncos sustain the momentum they felt was created by their 2018 draft class as they set their 2019 board?
The Broncos believe a new foundation was poured when they made 10 picks, nine of whom remain under contract and as many as four could be Week 1 starters.
“Sure,” Elway said. “With what we’re looking at (this year), remember what we looked at last year. We’ll continue to do that.”
That model: Every Broncos draft pick last year was a college senior.
They felt older was wiser and more experienced equaled better-prepared.
“We went a little older (with) team captains and we had a good draft so I’m sure we’ll lean that way again this year,” Elway said.
That baseline would suggest Missouri quarterback Drew Lock instead of Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. It would lean toward Georgia cornerback Deandre Baker instead of Washington’s Byron Murphy or LSU’s Greedy Williams. It would point to TCU linebacker Ben Banogu (a fifth-year senior who said he had a meeting scheduled with the Broncos) instead of Florida State’s Brian Burns.
Depending on how free agency develops, the Broncos’ home-grown cupboard could be bare later this month. A look at how many of Elway’s picks remain on the roster:
2011: One of nine picks remains — outside linebacker Von Miller. That worked out.
2012: One of seven — defensive end Derek Wolfe. One of the few remaining players from the Super Bowl-winning defense in 2015.
2013: None of seven.
2014: Two of six — center Matt Paradis and cornerback Bradley Roby are free agents. Paradis could return if his market dries up, and Roby isn’t expected back.
2015: Three of nine — outside linebacker Shane Ray, tight end Jeff Heuerman and guard Max Garcia. Ray is as good as gone, Heuerman has battled injuries and Garcia lost his starting job after 2017.
2016: Six of eight — two are 2019 projected starters (defensive end Adam Gotsis and safety Justin Simmons). Both could be players who receive second contracts.
2017: Four of eight — one is a projected starter (left tackle Garett Bolles). Bolles, selected ahead of the more experienced Ryan Ramczyk and Cam Robinson, has battled inconsistency.
2018: Nine of 10 — three are projected starters (receiver Courtland Sutton, outside linebacker Bradley Chubb and inside linebacker Josey Jewell). Running back Royce Freeman could also start.
Miller and Wolfe are the only two remaining homegrown Broncos draft picks who have signed a second contract with the team.
Choosing Bolles, who had one year of experience at Utah, may have forced a change for Elway and his personnel cabinet. Projecting upside should be occasionally discarded for college production. The tape doesn’t lie.
The less-than-desirable track record of his drafts from 2013-15, in particular, has created dual importance for Elway this year. He must find immediate starters and he must unearth back-of-the-roster talent that can provide depth and be special teams contributors.
In an NFL world where the salary cap rises every year, allowing teams to re-sign their players, drafting has become even more important. The only way to truly win at free agency is to avoid free agency, save for mid-range signings. That means drafting and developing well. The Broncos’ nearly constant coaching changes — fourth head coach in six years, third defensive coordinator in four years and fourth offensive coordinator in as many years — produces a moving target.
“That’s a problem for any team, always changing up,” NFL Network analyst Charles Davis said on Saturday. “Not the same head coach, not the same philosophy, not the same formula. Everybody wants to consistently say, ‘This is who we are,’ and draft to that.”
To characterize this year’s draft as make-or-break for Elway is an exercise in tomfoolery. His status is envied by all of his makes-the-final-decision colleagues. He has a Super Bowl title on his team-building resume. He has no boss. He has supreme job security.
But if Elway wants to show he can build a second perennial playoff contender — the first run was 2011-15 — stacking up on solid drafts is the only route.
“We learn from the good moves that we made and we also evaluate the bad moves that we made and why we made the mistakes,” Elway said.
