SP-BSP-RLD tie-up, combative Congress change UP equations for BJP

New Delhi: The SP-BSP-RLD tie-up and a combative Congress has made the electoral prospects tough for BJP in several constituencies of Uttar Pradesh in these Lok Sabha elections, making it virtually impossible to repeat the 2014 performance of winning 71 of the 80 seats in the state.
BJP is likely to replace some of the sitting Lok Sabha MPs in these elections to beat anti-incumbency. However, the danger of those deprived tickets standing as rebels and cutting into BJP’s votes is also a worry for the saffron party.

ET took a look at some of the seats won by BJP in 2014 where the battle is not going to be easy in 2019. RLD joining the SP-BSP alliance has made BJP’s chances of retaining the Baghpat seat dim.

Jayant Chaudhary is likely to contest from this seat. In Muzaffarnagar, there is a strong possibility of his father Ajit Singh winning against Sanjeev Balyan, who had a stint as minister of state in the Narendra Modi government.

BJP may find the going tough in Allahabad seat after the SP-BSP alliance. SP’s Reoti Raman Singh, now a member of the Rajya Sabha, had won this seat in 2009 but lost to bidi king Shyama Charan Gupta in 2014.

BJP rebel Savitri Bai Phule will be contesting on a Congress ticket from Bahraich reserved seat and has bright prospects of winning. The seat has a sizeable Kurmi population and if Beni Prasad Verma extends support to Phule, she is likely to get another Lok Sabha term.

Congress leader PL Punia is eyeing a ticket for his son Tanuj from Barabanki reserved seat. Punia, who is a Rajya Sabha MP, had won this seat in 2009. Priyanka Rawat of BJP had won this reserved seat in 2014.

BJP’s defeat in by-polls in Kairana, Phulpur and Gorakhpur are still fresh. The SP-BSP-RLD alliance is likely to lead to a repeat performance in Kairana. Some reports said BJP is not averse to fielding UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya again from Phulpur to wrest back the seat.

BJP sources said Kanpur can be a tough fight this time for the party, especially if Murli Manohar Joshi decides not to contest.

BSP chief Mayawati has a strong hold over Akbarpur and Ambedkarnagar constituencies and poses a serious challenge to BJP this time. Among the other seats where BJP faces a tough challenge from SP are Ballia, Bhadohi, Chandauli, Fatehpur and Deoria. The contest in Unnao is also likely to be tough.