Lok Sabha elections 2019: Why BJP may contest these 13 seats in Bihar

NEW DELHI: As the BJP’s Central Election Committee (CEC) meets on Saturday to finalise the names of candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, it has a major challenge of reaching a consensus on the party’s contestants in Bihar.
Sources said the party is likely to press for 13 traditional seats on which it has fared comparatively better in the last few elections.
The BJP had contested 30 seats and won 22 of the total 40 seats in Bihar in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
However, for the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls, it will contest only 17 seats. This is giving anxious moments to the sitting MPs as well as the other aspirants.
There are two choices before the BJP - to retain 17 of the seats it had won in 2014 or choose the traditional ones where it has fared well in the last few elections.
The sources say the party is likely to select the seats on which it has registered most victories in at least last three elections.
There are at least 13 such seats and the party may choose the remaining four in consultation with its alliance partners - Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) [JDU] and Union consumer affairs minister Ram Vilas Paswan-headed Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

According to the deal among the three NDA partners, while the BJP and the JDU will contest 17 Lok Sabha seats each, the LJP has been given six out of the total 40 constituencies in the state.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP had contested in alliance with the LJP and Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP).
While the BJP had contested 30 seats and won 22, the LJP had contested seven seats and won six. On the other hand, the RLSP had won all the three seats it had contested. The NDA had won 31 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats from Bihar.
However, Upendra Kushwaha, who was a Union minister in the Narendra Modi government, quit the NDA recently and joined the grand alliance comprising the Congress and Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
As far as the JDU is concerned, it had contested 38 seats but won just two and forfeited security deposits on 23.
In such a scenario, the JDU and the LJP are in a win-win situation in the seat-sharing arrangement for this year’s general election.
Despite winning just two seats, JDU will contest 17 while the LJP, which had won six seats, will contest the same number of seats. In addition to it, Ram Vilas Paswan will also get one Rajya Sabha seat from the BJP’s quota.
In contrast to the JDU and the LJP, the BJP appears to have given major concessions to its alliance partners, particularly the JDU.
Even though the party had won 22 seats in 2014, it is contesting 17 seats - five less than it had won last time. With more sitting MPs than the number of seats the BJP is contesting, the law-makers are on tenterhooks.
However, there is some respite for them because effectively there is only one extra MP.
Patna Sahib MP Shatrughan Sinha has turned a rebel and in most likelihood he will contest from other party’s symbol.
Darbhanga MP Kirti Azad, another rebel, joined the Congress recently.
Bhola Singh, MP from Begusarai, died last October.
Madhubani MP Hukmdev Narayan Singh had announced much in advance that he would not contest the next election.
The second reason for the BJP MPs’ worry is that it is likely to drop some sitting MPs against whom there may may be some anti-incumbency feeling in their respective constituencies.
The third and the most important reason for their anxiety is that the BJP, the JDU and the LJP are likely to swap seats.
The BJP is likely to field candidates from its traditional strongholds. It is unlikely to field candidates from the constituencies it has the present MPs from.
The criterion would be the party’s performance in the last few elections.
The JDU and the BJP had jointly contested the 2009 and 2004 Lok Sabha. In 2009, the JDU fielded candidates candidates on 25 seats while the BJP did on 15. The ratio was 26-14 in 2004.
The 2004 election was the first one after the partition of Bihar. Jharkhand was carved out of it in 2001. And the 2009 election was the first one after delimitation in which about 10 constituencies were affected and their names were changed.
The BJP is likely to retain 13 seats which it had won in two of the three Lok Sabha elections in 2004, 2009 and 2014.
These 13 constituencies are West Champaran, East Champaran, Sheohar, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Patna Sahib, Araria, Purnea, Katihar, Bhagalpur, Buxar, Nawada and Gaya.
It won West Champaran, East Champaran, Sheohar, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Patna Sahib, Nawada and Gaya in 2009 and 2014; Araria, Purnea, Katihar and Bhagalpur in 2004 and 2009; and Buxar in 2004 and 2014.
On another 13 seats, the BJP won just once in the past three elections. These may be on second priority for the BJP to contest.
These are Bagaha, Gopalganj, Siwan, Maharajganj, Saran, Muzaffarpur, Jhanjharpur, Ujiarpur, Begusarai, Pataliputra, Arrah, Sasaram and Aurangabad. The BJP won all these in 2014. The BJP may choose four among these 13 seats.
The announcement of candidates is likely to create discontentment among the sitting MPs who will be dropped and the aspirants whose names would not be included in the final list. The BJP faces a challenge to quell dissension which may arise after the list is released.