Lok Sabha Elections: Pact may throw up new caste lines

BENGALURU: The BJP could find the going tough in Karnataka since voters often weigh caste and party loyalties before casting their ballots. Caste could be a decisive factor in 22 of the 28 constituencies in the state as the electorate often prefers a particular party or candidates from their community and are rarely swayed by other issues.
“With the ruling Congress and JD(S) forming an alliance for the first time in 30 years, the BJP will face a litmus test in about 10 constituencies this time,” a senior BJP leader admitted.“In the other constituencies, it wouldn’t matter as it would be a direct contest between Congress and BJP.”
Although no exact details are available, leaders say Lingayats account for 17-19% of the population in the state, followed by Vokkaligas at 13-15%, Muslims at 13-15%, Kuruba’s at 9% and SC/ STs at around 24%. Other backward and a few upper caste communities make up the rest.
Previous voting patterns indicate Lingayat turnout on April 23 could play a crucial role in determining the BJP’s fortunes. The community could prove decisive in 12 of the 14 constituencies in North Karnataka.
In southern Karnataka, including the Old Mysuru region, Vokkaligas hold sway. Though the community has traditionally sided with the JD(S), their allegiance to the Congress in some constituencies is equally strong.
Scheduled castes (SC) and scheduled tribes (ST) votes will be crucial in Central and Western parts of the state, while Muslims will play a decisive role in Kalaburagi, Bidar, Bengaluru Central and Dakshina Kannada. Muslims constitute about 12% of voters in every constituency, but in Dakshina Kannada it is 22%, Bidar and Kalaburagi 19%, Dharwad 18%, Haveri 15% and Bengaluru Central 16%.
Given the sharp split between left and right wing factions among dalits, the might of SC/ST voters can tilt the balance in favour of the BJP, but a lot will depend on the degree of polarization.