Lok Sabha polls 2019: 12 battles that will decide fate of bigwigs in Hindi heartland

(This article was originally published by The Economic Times on 25/03/2019.)
NEW DELHI: Both the BJP and the Congress have announced more than half of their Lok Sabha candidates, and the regional parties too are in the process of finalising their candidates. ET has shortlisted a dozen Lok Sabha seats in the Hindi heartland that are expected to witness tough contests.Here’s a closer look:
Amethi- May 6 Rahul Gandhi Vs Smriti Irani
Although Amethi is a Congress bastion and SP-BSPRLD combine is not fielding a candidate here, party president Rahul Gandhi will face a spirited opposition as the BJP is putting i t s might behind its can- didate Smriti Irani. She lost to Gandhi in 2014, but since then she has been visiting the constituency regularly as well as attacking him relentlessly on a plethora of issues. It remains to be seen whether the seat that remained elusive for the BJP even during the Modi wave of 2014 will turn its back on the Congress.
Muzaffarnagar - April 11 Ajit Singh Vs Sanjeev Balyan
Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh is contesting from Muzaffarnagar for the first time on the strength of his credentials as a leader of the Jat community while the BJP’s outgoing MP Sanjeev Balyan will be fighting to retain his hold on the community in the area. With Singh contesting from the seat as part of the alliance, this constituency will serve as a test case for the electoral social equation of Jats, Muslims and Dalits.
Baghpat - April 11 Jayant Chaudhary Vs Satya Pal Singh
Jayant Chaudhary is contesting for the first time from his family stronghold of Baghpat, from where his father Ajit Singh lost to the BJP’s Satya Pal Singh in 2014. While Chaudhary faces the challenge of regaining his family’s lost glory, his opponent’s task may be considerably more difficult than that last time if the alliance works on the ground and he gets the support of Dalits and Muslims in addition to Jats.
Amroha-April 18 Kanwar Singh Tanwar Vs Kunwar Danish Ali Vs Rashid Alvi
Tanwar, the current BJP MP has a tough challenger in Danish Ali who is contesting on a BSP ticket. Amroha has more than 20% Muslim population, followed by sizeable Dalits, Sainis and Jats. However, another Muslim candidate, Rashid Alvi, fielded by the Congress could make it a triangular contest.
Firozabad- April 23 Akshay Yadav Vs Shivpal Yadav
The Yadav family battle will be most visible in Firozabad, where SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav’s brother Shivpal Yadav has challenged sitting MP and son of Ram Gopal Yadav, Akshay Yadav. Shivpal is contesting on his party PSP’s ticket. With influence among elder voters and grassroots workers, Shivpal is expected to pose a tough challenge to Akshay.
Badaun- April 23 Dharmendra Yadav Vs Shanghmitra Maurya Vs Salim Iqbal Sherwani
This is one of SP strongholds and the party has been winning this seat for the past six Lok Sabha elections. Badaun is also a seat with 15% Muslim and 15% Yadav population, making it a perfect seat for SP. However, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s nephew and sitting MP Dharmendra Yadav is facing a challenge this time on two fronts – the BJP has fielded UP minister Swami Prasad Maurya’s daughter Sanghmitra Maurya to ensure support of upper castes and non-Yadavs among Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The Congress has fielded former SP leader and four-time MP from the seat, Salim Sherwani. He could attract a fraction of Muslim voters, spelling trouble for Yadav.
Begusarai- April 29 Giriraj Singh Vs Kanhaiya Kumar
This has the makings of one of the most fierce battles in Bihar, with firebrand BJP leader Giriraj Singh taking on student leader Kanhaiya Kumar, who has been fielded by CPI. Since CPI is not part of the opposition alliance, the ride could be tougher for Kumar from one of the strongest communist bastions, often called Leningrad of the East. Both Singh and Kumar come from upper caste Bhumihar community and a division of votes could offer a chance to the alliance, which is yet to announce a candidate.
Jamui-April 11 Chirag Paswan Vs Bhudev Chaudhary
MP Chirag Paswan is facing a tough battle, with RLSP’s state president Bhudev Chaudhary in the fray. Chaudhary had won the seat in 2009 on a JDU ticket. This time he is banking on consolidation of Dalit and OBC votes while Paswan is betting on a section of Dalits and upper caste voters.
Gaya- April 11 Jitan Ram Manjhi Vs Vijay Manjhi
The BJP has given up its winning seat Gaya to JDU in NDA alliance, and hence the current MP, Hari Manjhi, is not contesting from the seat. Jitan Manjhi faces the JDU’s Vijay Manjhi. In the previous election, Jitan Manjhi contested the seat on a JDU ticket and stood third. However, in a changed scenario, Manjhi, as a HAM candidate, is a strong contender. Vijay Manjhi, who is currently an MLC, is the son of Bhagwati Devi, who won this seat in 1996.
Purnia- April 18 Santosh Kumar Kushwaha Vs Uday Singh alias Pappu Singh
Purnia is one of the two seats which the JD U won in 2014 despite the strong Modi wave that swept across Bihar. However, the equation has changed this time. Uday Singh, who contested on a BJP ticket in 2014, is the Congress candidate under the opposition alliance. Singh could give a hard day to Kushwaha with more than 50% SC/ST voters and 30% Muslim voters in the constituency. Kushwaha won last time because he was able to get a large section of Muslim votes, which might go with the Congress this time.
Garhwal- April 11 Manish Khanduri Vs Tirath Singh Rawat
Garhwal is up for an interesting battle, with BJP MP BC Khanduri’s son Manish Khanduri contesting on a Congress ticket. The BJP has fielded senior Khanduri’s disciple, Tirath Singh Rawat, from the seat. BC Khanduri is a fivetime MP and commands great support in the constituency, but his son contesting on a Congress ticket has given a new dimension to the battle. Both the leaders are claiming that they have BC Khanduri’s blessings.
Nainital-US Nagar- April 11 Harish Rawat Vs Ajay Bhatt
With the BJP winning 12 out of 14 assembly seats in 2017 in Nainital, the 2019 battle wasn’t considered to be a tough one for Ajay Bhatt, the BJP state president.
However, with the Congress fielding Harish Rawat, it has become so. Rawat commands great support among the Rajput voters.
There is anger among Rajputs here after the party denied ticket to sitting MP BS Koshyari. In 2017, Bhatt lost the assembly election from Ranikhet while his party formed the government in the state. Rawat was willing to contest from Haridwar but the party convinced him to challenge Bhatt in Nainital.