2019 NCAA Tournament: Gonzaga vs. FSU odds, Sweet 16 picks, bracket predictions from advanced model on 11-5 run

A coveted berth in the Elite 8 will be on the line Thursday when the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles collide in the Sweet 16 of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga (32-3), the 1-seed in the West Region, has been to the Elite 8 three times in program history, including two in the last four years (2015 and '17). Florida State (29-7) has also been to the Elite 8 three times, the last time coming a year ago when the Seminoles beat Gonzaga, 75-60, as a 9-seed in the Sweet 16 to get there. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:09 p.m. ET at the Honda Center in Anaheim. The Bulldogs are favored by 7.5 in the latest Gonzaga vs. Florida State odds after the line moved as high as -8 on Thursday, while the over-under for total points scored is 148.5. Before making any Gonzaga vs. FSU picks of your own, read the NCAA Tournament predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It's also on fire in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, calling 14 of the Sweet 16 teams correctly. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has homed in on Gonzaga vs. Florida State. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also has an extremely strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 70 percent of simulations. That one is available only at SportsLine.

The model has factored in that Gonzaga has seemed to have righted the ship after losing the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game to Saint Mary's. The Zags entered that game having won 21 straight by double-digits. Since that loss, Gonzaga has looked like its regular self, beating 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson by 38 and 9-seed Baylor by 12. 

In those games, the Bulldogs showed off their frontcourt depth. Junior forward Rui Hachimura, a projected first round pick in the NBA Draft, led the team with 21 points and eight rebounds against Fairleigh Dickinson. Against Baylor, fellow junior forward Brandon Clarke had a dominant game, matching a career-high with 36 points while also pulling down five rebounds, blocking five shots and throwing down five dunks. Gonzaga is 22-13 against the spread this season, far better than Florida State (17-18).

But just because the Bulldogs have been dominant statistically does not guarantee they will cover the FSU vs. Gonzaga spread and advance in the 2019 NCAA bracket.

The Seminoles have a deep front court to neutralize Hachimura, Clarke and the rest of Gonzaga's attack. Mfiondu Kabengele (6-10, 250) and Christ Koumadje (7-4, 268) lead an army of big men with the length and size to give the Bulldogs trouble.

FSU's depth was on full display in its 90-62 victory against Ja Morant and Murray State on Saturday. Kabengele, the ACC's sixth man of the year, had 22 points and seven rebounds. The Seminoles burned the Racers from outside with 11-of-27 three-point shooting and inside with 19 dunks or layups and a 45-33 rebounding advantage. The result was the team's largest margin of victory since late November.

So who wins Florida State vs. Gonzaga? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida State vs. Gonzaga spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's up more than $4,000 on top-rated college basketball picks the past two seasons.