Jalna in Marathwada, represented by the state BJP chief, faces one of the worst droughts and farmers have been having it tough with falling prices.
Maharashtra: Big battle between BJP-Shiv Sena and Cong-NCP
Rural discontent, especially among farmers, coupled with the crippling drought, caste arithmetic and the anger over demonetisation and GST are likely to impact the BJP’s and Shiv Sena’s chances of repeating its 2014 performance where it won six of the eight seats in Marathwada. In 2014, the Shiv Sena and BJP won three seats each and the Congress two. This time, though the BJP and Shiv Sena are facing a challenging battle to retain their seats even in strongholds like Beed, there could be some upsets in store for Congress too.
BEED In Beed, Pritam Munde, the younger sister of Pankaja Munde created history in 2014 when she won by a record margin of nearly 7 lakh votes (696,321). Since the polls were hold after the sudden death of her father Gopinath Munde and the NCP, which traditionally contests the seat, did not put up a candidate, Munde won by a huge margin.
The NCP feels that the margin needed to be covered to win this seat would be around 1.4 lakh votes; this is the margin that Gopinath Munde had in his 2009 Lok Sabha poll win. In the 2014 polls, he won by a 1.36 lakh margin.
NCP’s Dhananjay Munde, the enstranged cousin of Pankaja Munde, who is spearheading the campaign against Pritam Munde, has pitted Bajrang Sonwane against Pritam. Neither the Balakot air strikes, neither the Rs 6,000 payout for farmers have found much traction in Beed which goes to polls in the second phase on April 18.
The NCP is playing the caste and the agrarian distress card by bringing in Sonwane who is from the Maratha community ––this is the dominant community in Beed with around 11 lakh votes. The other dominant community is the OBCs which includes the Vanjaris from where Pritam Munde hails (with 7 lakh votes); followed by the 4.5 lakh Dalit voters and 3.5 lakh Muslim voters. The NCP plans to capitalise on the Marathas’ discontent against the government over the Maratha quota. While the state government has implemented the Maratha quota, the issue has been challenged in court. The Marathas feel that the state government has half-heartedly implemented the quota and hence it is hanging in a limbo.
The buzz is that Pritam’s elder sister Pankaja has not done anything for the Marathas while she was in the Devendra Fadnavis government and if the Maratha anger and the Muslim community votes are captured, it could lead to a victory for the NCP.
Farmer's anger: The other major drawback facing the BJP is farmers in Beed, who predominantly grow soyabean, have been forced to sell it at rates lower than what the government has fixed. Not all farmer has benefitted from the state’s farm loan waiver scheme and the negligible amount of money given to farmers in the name of crop insurance have only fuelled the anger.
But the BJP is counting on Prakash Ambedkars Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi’s candidate –– Professor Vishnu Jadhav. Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi has drawn huge crowds wherever he has gone and if Jadhav makes inroads in the Dalit and Muslim votebank, she could benefit from it. The constituency has 1.96 lakh new voters which could be a crucial factor.
LATUR The fight in Latur is slightly in favour of the BJP mainly because of Congress infighting. The BJP has dropped its highly unpopular candidate Sunil Gaikwad and replaced him with Sudhakar Shringare. The Congress has pitched Machindra Kamat who was earlier in the NCP. Kamat is said to be the choice of former Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil and Maharashtra Congress Chief Ashok Chavan. Latur is former Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh’s fiefdom. However, according to local Congress leaders, his son Amit was not even consulted before Kamat was given the ticket.
Amit Deshmukh or his supporters are not yet campaigning for Kamat. The infighting gives BJP the edge even though the party has miserably failed to solve the constituency’s problems. Being in a rain scarce region, water is available at a premium here. In 2017, the state had to send railway wagons filled with water to Latur and this year residents get water once every eight days. Farmers have not been getting adequate price for their crops. There are no major industries up in Latur and lack of power in rural villages is also a major issue. The BJP is hoping that the Congress infighting over Kamat’s candidature and the margin of 2.53 lakh votes that its candidate won in 2014 polls would help it. In Latur city, there seems to be a favourable opinion about the BJP among youngsters after the Balakot air strikes. The Congress is hoping that farmers’ anger may tilt the scales in its favour. Polling will be held in the second phase of April 18 here.
NANDED Considered a stronghold of the Chavan family for the past 40 years, this was the only seat along with Hingoli that the Congress won in the state in the 2014 polls. The BJP has put up a strong candidate against Chavan. Pratap Patil Chikhalikar, a Shiv Sena MLA from Loha in Nanded, who was taken into the BJP, will take on Chavan. The BJP believes that Chavan can be defeated and Devendra Fadnavis is personally monitoring the election campaign.
While Chavan is known as a popular mass leader in Nanded, the 2019 polls could be the toughest elections he will be facing so far. Chavan has been pointing out the central government’s involvement in the Central Bureau of Investigation and the Modi government’s ‘disregard for institutions’. Among the Dalit community, Chavan’s rhetoric is that the BJP government, if voted to power, would destroy the constitution given by Babasaheb Ambedkar.
The BJP has been talking of the Balakot air strike that has found some traction especially in the urban areas of Nanded. The party has also been talking of bringing Rs 11,000 crore worth of highway projects that connect to Nanded.
What makes Chavan’s journey to the Lok Sabha a question mark is the constitution of the electorate and the candidates. Ambedkar’s Bahujan Vanchit Aghadi is the key here; the party has given the ticket to Dr Yashpal Bhinge, a Dhangar. Bhinge is the one who took up the cause of the Dhangars to be given ST status right to the Supreme Court. There are around 1.75 lakh Dhangar voters in Nanded. Ambedkar’s alliance with AIMIMs also means that he is likely to get some Muslim votes too. The AIMIM has already made inroads into Nanded and in the civic polls, its candidates lost by narrow margins. The Samajwadi Party, in alliance with the BSP, has also put up a Muslim candidate. Chavan may be in trouble if Bhinge gets over 1 lakh votes and the SP-BSP candidate gets another 20,000 votes. Modi will hold a rally in Nanded on April 6 and on April 8, Prakash Ambedkar is set to hold a rally. (Polling will be held on April 18 in the second phase)
JALNA Maharashtra BJP chief Raosaheb Danve won the last 2014 parliamentary polls from here by a margin of more than 2 lakh votes, against Congress’ Vilas Autade. Danve is pitched against Autade this time too. Jalna is facing one of the worst droughts this time. Farmers have been having it tough with falling prices of their crops. The Congress is on a backfoot because there have been many claimants for the Jalna seat. Abdul Sattar, a local MLA and close confidant of Ashok Chavan, has been eyeing Jalna or Aurangabad. Since Sattar has been denied a ticket he could play spoil sport. (Polling will be held on April 23 in the third phase)
AURANGABAD Shiv Sena MP Chandrakant Khaire has been representing this seat as an MP since 1999. In what is a multi-cornered contest, he would face Subhash Zambad of the Congress, the AIMIM and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi supported candidate Imtiaz Jaleel. The region has four lakh Dalits and 3.5 lakh Muslims. If these two communities’ votes get fragmented, then Khaire may become an MP again. (Polling will be held on April 23in the third phase)
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