This trinity may decide who forms the next govt at the Centre

YS Jaganmohan Reddy is candid when he says he wants a hung parliament. The leader of YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) has repeated his wish at recent media interactions and party meetings. His objective is crystal clear: be relevant in the national political spectrum after May 23, when counting of the votes cast for the Lok Sabha elections begins.

YSRCP is one of the three large political parties that have remained unattached to any political combinations even as the campaigning for the Lok Sabha polls heats up — the others are K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha. The three are neither a part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) nor with any anti-Narendra Modi political grouping.

India will vote for the 17th Lok Sabha in a seven-phase poll between April 11 and May 19. While Andhra and Telangana will vote on April 11, Odisha will vote in four phases for the assembly and Lok Sabha. Andhra will also see simultaneous assembly elections.



The polls might well demonstrate the importance of Reddy, Rao and Patnaik — the unattached trio — due to at least a couple of reasons.



First, the three together can claim to have a strong base in 63 Lok Sabha seats — 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 17 in Telangana and 21 in Odisha — of the 543 going to polls. That they had won 40 seats in the 2014 general elections (YSRCP 9, TRS 11 and BJD 20) shows the clout the three will have in the event of a hung parliament. The situation, however, would change in the unlikely event of a lower count.

Second, all three leaders are mavericks. So they might decide to support either Congress or BJP, though the popular perception is they are more inclined towards BJP due to certain occurrences. For example, Reddy’s relations with Congress soured after his father and two-time chief minister of united Andhra Pradesh, YS Rajasekhara Reddy, died in a chopper crash in 2009. He faced multiple corruption cases and was even jailed for 16 months when the Congress-led UPA-II was in power. When the BJP-led NDA came to power, the central investigating agencies apparently went slow with his cases. However, in an interview to a news channel on Friday, Reddy said he was not nursing vengeance against anybody.

Referring to Congress, he said he had forgiven them and a special category status to Andhra was his priority. Reddy had earlier said he was ready to support any party that would sign on the dotted line that the state would be given special category status. In the interview, he also criticised BJP for cheating the people of the state over the special category status.

In Odisha, Patnaik seems to be hedging his bets. A chief minister for 19 years, the BJD chief had a decade-long partnership with BJP till 2009, when they parted ways due to differences over seat sharing. In 2017, BJD supported BJP’s presidential nominee Ram Nath Kovind, forcing political pundits to speculate he was leaning towards NDA. But months later, he put his weight behind the Congress candidate, Gopalkrishna Gandhi, for the vice-president’s post, thereby keeping the confusion alive. For the record, the Odisha chief minister had hailed Modi’s controversial move in 2016 to ban certain currency notes in circulation.



Among the three satraps, Telangana’s Rao is considered to be the most unpredictable. In a surprise move last year, the astute politician advanced assembly polls by six months as that reportedly gave his party, TRS, a clear edge. If he had not advanced the elections, Telangana would also be preparing for simultaneous assembly and Lok Sabha elections — like in Odisha and Andhra. Such a situation would have forced Rao to face two fronts. But the TRS chief had another shocker up his sleeve. After returning to power by winning 88 of the 119 assembly seats in December, he inducted just one minister to his cabinet: Mohammad Mahmood Ali got the home portfolio.

KCR, as Rao is commonly known, continued to run his government for over two months with one minister, making many ask if he was doing so for astrological reasons. Rao finally expanded his cabinet in February. No winning political party in the country has delayed government formation like this. The delay had made Prime Minister Modi ask at a rally in Mahbubnagar last week: “Tell us, who will decide Telangana’s future, the people or astrologers?” Rao had retorted by asking Modi to not get personal in his speeches. Earlier this week, he said, “Why is Modi after my nose? How does it matter if my nose is long or short?”



The political posturing of the three regional politicians has made it difficult for voters on the streets to nose out which way the wind will blow. They have no idea who their leader will align with at the Centre and, more importantly, why.

“So far as KCR’s support at the Centre is concerned, I guess, he may go either way, but more likely with the Congress,” says K Narsaya, a palm-wine trader from Gumpula village, Nalgonda district, Telangana. But the 48-year-old die-hard supporter of Rao has no answer when asked why his party leader would back Congress. All he knows is that if KCR comes to power, he would get up to Rs 1 lakh under a state government scheme that gives assistance to poor parents for the marriage of girl children.

In Andhra Pradesh, Murli Krishnan is wedded to Jaganmohan Reddy. “Jagan anna (big brother) helped me during my heart operation. I survived because of him,” says the truck driver. Before the start of a rally in Mylavaram, 45 km north of Vijayawada, Krishnan dances to the tune of YSR Congress’ political campaign song, “Ravali Jagan, kavali Jagan ( Jagan is coming, we need Jagan)”.

The song has registered over 12 million views on YouTube. What about Jagan’s role at the Centre? Krishnan does not pause for a moment. “If the BJP comes to power at the Centre, Jagan anna will support BJP, if Congress wins, he will support Congress,” he adds.

Like in Hyderabad and Vijayawada, voters in Bhubaneswar are also not sure whether their leader will go when the situation arises. The Odisha chief minister has deftly maintained equal distance from both Congress — BJD’s traditional rival — and BJP, which is becoming the main opposition in the state.

A shopkeeper in the Odisha capital, Rajkishore Ram, says Patnaik will bury his differences with BJP. “If the need arises, Naveen babu will go with BJP as he did it in the past,” says 66-year-old, ruling out his leader’s entry into an anti-Modi alliance.



In January, Patnaik had made it clear he won’t be a part of any grand alliance — the Telangana CM had unsuccessfully attempted to make a federal front with Patnaik, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and others. At the same time, Patnaik had stepped up his criticism of BJP over Mahanadi water-sharing dispute and the Centre’s reluctance to grant special category status to Odisha.

BJD had won 20 of 21 seats in Odisha during the 2014 general elections. “Neither NDA nor UPA is likely to get a clear majority this time,” says party spokesperson Sasmit Patra. “And that is where Naveen Patnaikji will play a key role.”

BJD is confident of returning to power in the state, too. Party sources say Patnaik has been able to hold his influence over the electorate mainly because of a slew of schemes — such as Mo jami mo diha (giving land pattas to the handless) and KALIA (cash assistance for farming) — and constantly hitting out at the Centre for neglecting Odisha. But the astute politician is keeping his cards close to his chest, leaving doors open for both the camps.

“Until results are declared and we know the numbers, we can’t commit anything,” adds Patra. BJP — which won 32% vote share in the 2017 Panchayat polls, pushing Congress to the third spot — seems to be treading cautiously. After all, an apparent bonhomie with BJD could prove costly to its electoral prospects.

Union Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan says: “Our main fight is with BJD and we will form the government after defeating it. The question of partnering with Naveen babu does not arise. His party is hand in glove with Congress in its anti-Modi agenda.”

In Telangana, the failure to form a federal front has not discouraged Rao from looking for alliances. The chief minister said he would support Reddy’s demand for special category status for Andhra Pradesh. This suggests they might make a postpoll bloc. It helps that they have a common rival in Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu.

On Friday, Reddy said in the interview he had no understanding with BJP or TDP and that Naidu had lost credibility. He also said his party would not expand beyond Andhra if it won. Reddy’s YSRCP — which managed to win only nine seats in the 2014 general elections — might just be on an upswing in Andhra Pradesh. Rallies organised by Reddy and his sister, YS Sharmila, have seen massive crowds. The party has not fought the 2018 assembly elections in Telangana. That is another reason why Rao has not been challenged in Telangana.

While Jaganmohan Reddy, KCR and Naveen Patnaik might hold a sizeable command in their respective states, the question is whether they would be able to overcome challenges and come together to influence the post-poll national political dynamics, in the event of a hung parliament. The answer will be clear by 12 noon on May 23, when early trends will show which way the winds are blowing.