Can Cong-JD(S) halt BJP charge in North Karnataka?

BENGALURU: The Congress-JD(S) combine is aiming for 20 victories out of the total 28 constituency races in the state. The outcome of this ambitious pursuit will depend on how it fares in North Karnataka, where the BJP juggernaut has been consistently winning nine to 11 seats since 2004.
Voters in the region’s 14 constituencies will make their choice on April 23 in the second phase of the elections.Barring Shivamogga and Vijayapura, where JD(S) has fielded its candidates, all other segments will see a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress.
The BJP seeks to win at least 10 of the 14 seats to continue its dominance in the region. In fact, the party’s overall hopes in the state are tied to North Karnataka as it is facing a stiff challenge from the Congress-JD(S) alliance in South Karnataka.
In 2014, the BJP put up a spectacular show in North Karnataka, winning 11 seats. The Congress was restricted to three here, while the JD(S) failed to open its account. In the 2018 by-poll, however, the coalition partners pulled one back by winning Ballari, which was a BJP stronghold.
Overwhelming support from Lingayats, who make up to 17 to 18 per cent of the population in the region, is the main reason behind the saffron party’s success. The community is the largest social group in 11 out of the 14 constituencies. The Congress lost favour among Lingayat voters in the 1990s after Rajiv Gandhi dismissed Veerendra Patil from the chief minister’s post and the Janata Dal disintegrated. The BJP gained popularity among them, and its focus on retaining their support is evident from the fact that BS Yeddyurappa is still the undisputed Lingayat leader of the party in Karnataka despite crossing the age of 75. The party’s current policy allows only leaders who are 75 or below to hold party positions.
Despite the Congress’s efforts to woo Lingayats back into its fold over the past decade, they have largely remained loyal to the BJP, with the Modi wave in 2014 further cementing the base. However, the partnership with the JD(S) and the 2018 by-poll success have boosted the Congress’s chances in North Karnataka. The party hopes to enlarge its vote share by consolidating the support of backward classes, Dalits and minorities.
“Together, the Congress and JD(S) have the potential to pull off a huge victory, but it all depends on how they handle their problem of plenty and disgruntled elements in their camps,” said a senior political observer in North Karnataka.
In 2014, overall, the BJP polled 43.37 per cent of votes, a record for the party in the state, to win 17 seats. The Congress polled 41.15 per cent of the votes, winning nine seats, whereas the JD(S) bagged two seats, both in South Karnataka, with 11.07 per cent vote share.