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This story is from April 11, 2019

Over to Magadh round of polls and partnerships in first phase of elections in Bihar

As the gruelling seven-phase Lok Sabha election begins in the state with polling in four constituencies in Magadh region in the first phase on Thursday, all eyes are on voters, who would play a decisive role in electing the next government at the Centre.
Over to Magadh round of polls and partnerships in first phase of elections in Bihar
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PATNA: As the gruelling seven-phase Lok Sabha begins in the state with polling in four constituencies in Magadh region in the first phase on Thursday, all eyes are on voters, who would play a decisive role in electing the next government at the Centre.
Much water has flown under the bridge since chief minister Nitish Kumar, riding high on his good governance plank, decided to go it alone in the state in the 2014 LS election after BJP projected Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate.

Nitish has travelled miles in the last five years. From launching a tirade against Modi to joining hands with him by deserting the Mahagathbandhan, Nitish has tried to send a message that nothing is impossible in politics.
In doing so, he has earned bouquets and brickbats alike. While the CM, who distanced himself from RJD to ‘discourage corruption’, was patted by many for his no-nonsense attitude, his frequent flip-flops as far as choice of ally is concerned did not do any good to his image. Political ‘opportunism’ slur is the biggest burden the CM is carrying this time.
The state, which elects 40 MPs, was no exception when the Modi wave swept the country in the 2014 election as it gave 22 seats to BJP and 6 to its ally Lok Janshakti Party. The JD(U) had then fought the election alone and bagged only two seats. Its vote share was a mere 15.80% (down 8.24% from 2009 LS polls). The RJD, which had fought the election in alliance with Congress, managed to secure 20.10% votes (a gain of .80% from 2009). The BJP, which had the luxury of Modi’s emergence as a national political icon, had swept the election by bagging 29.40% votes (a staggering 15.47% gain from its 2009 figure). Its ally Lok Janshakti Party (RJD) had also performed exceedingly well and bagged 6.40% votes.

Though the then Mahagathbandhan of JD(U), RJD and Congress stunned political pundits by handing BJP a crushing defeat in the assembly election the very next year despite Modi’s aggressive campaign, the scenario is altogether different this year.
The Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) is with BJP again. Going by the 2014 vote share, the two parties together enjoy a vote share of 49.50% . Add to this the LJP’s 6.40% and the figure jumps to an astounding 55.90% in favour of BJP. On paper, this vote share seems enough for an alliance. However, unlike in 2014, there is no Modi wave this time.
This election is all about alliances, not parties and their leaders. The two alliances—NDA and Mahagathbandhan—were stitched after much deliberations and muscle-flexing. Though the NDA was first to finalise the modalities of the alliance, the negotiations were not easy as Nitish was not ready to settle for anything less than BJP’s tally and LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan, who is also known as political ‘mausam vaigyanik’, turning the heat on the saffron party by raising issues like alleged dilution of SC/ST Act and demonetisation.
In the end, BJP, which had won 22 seats in the state in 2014, surrendered five seats to strike a 50:50 deal with JD(U). Under the formula, 17 seats each went to the kitty of BJP and JD(U) and six to the LJP. The fact that BJP ceded its ground to please JD(U) summed up the desperation of the saffron party to give a new dimension to its ‘tried and tested’ alliance with Nitish’s party.
The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, never looked comfortable in stitching the alliance. It all began with the game of one-upmanship between Congress and RJD. In the absence of Lalu Prasad, his younger son and leader of opposition in state assembly Tejashwi Prasad Yadav bargained hard with Congress to stamp RJD’s authority. Finally, RJD agreed on a 20:20 formula. Under the pact, RJD decided to contest 20 seats, leaving the rest of the 20 seats for other allies—nine for Congress, five for Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and three each for Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikasshil Insan Party. Later on, RJD gave Ara seat from its quota to CPI(ML) as a ‘goodwill gesture’.
After the bitter experience of Uttar Pradesh, where Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party left Congress out of the Grand Alliance, party president Rahul Gandhi decided to play it safe in Bihar and gave up to the RJD’s strong arm tactics. RJD, too, made an unexpected sacrifice by deciding to contest on just 20 LS seats. It surrendered some of its strong seats to allies despite protests by prospective candidates with large support base.
The road ahead for the two alliances, however, is bumpy as enticing voters in this age of technology, even in the rural areas, is an arduous task for all political parties, especially in a politically sensitive state like Bihar.
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