What is at stake for BJP and Congress in phase 1 of Lok Sabha elections

NEW DELHI: Ninety-one Lok Sabha seats are voting today as part of Phase 1 of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections. A total of 18 states and two union territories – Andaman & Nicobar Island and Lakshadweep – will be covered in this phase.

Barring the exception of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, BJP enjoyed an upper hand in the remaining 49 seats in the last general elections, where it won 29 of these 49 seats.In Hindi Heartland — Bihar, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh — the BJP won 16 of the 17 seats.
However, in the wake of the alliance forged by the regional parties, the saffron party is likely to face an uphill task if it wants to replicate its 2014 performance.
Follow Live Updates: Voting under way for 91 seats in 18 states, 2 UTs
Today, the BJP will defend 32 of these 91 seats. The saffron party can look for gains in West Bengal; it has established a strong presence in the two northern seats. It can also look for gains in Tripura West and Outer Manipur.
In Andhra Pradesh, the party would want the TRS to do well to minimise Congress seats. Similarly, in Telangana, it would be in favour of a strong showing by YSR Congress.
In Bihar, BJP would want its allies to win the three remaining seats. (The party is contesting only one of the four seats going to polls today. It won three of these seats in 2014.)


Congress will defend seven seats it won in 2014, including two in Telangana, and one each in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur and Mizoram.
Additionally, it can look for gains in Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Uttarakhand and UP.

Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, with a total of 42 Lok Sabha seats, are the two major states in phase 1. This is the first time that the two states will be going to Lok Sabha polls after the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh.
In 2014, in undivided Andhra Pradesh, TDP, TRS and YSRC were the three main parties with 16, 11 and 9 seats, respectively. BJP was a distant fourth with three seats.

BJP won all the eight seats in 2014 general elections. In seven of these seats, the victory margin was over 20%. Only in one seat, Saharanpur, where INC's Imran Masood yields considerable clout, the victory margin was 5.45%.
If Mahagathbandhan alliance in Uttar Pradesh succeeds in scoring an upset in western Uttar Pradesh, it could have a cascading effect in the rest of the states — which played a pivotal role in BJP’s victory in 2014.

Riding high on the Narendra Modi wave, the saffron party swept all the five seats with a healthy vote margin in 2014.

BJP clinched three of the four seats in the last general elections. In Jamui, LJP's Chirag Paswan was the unanimous winner. BJP did not contest from this seat. However, this year Paswan will face tough competition from Rashtriya Lok Samata Party’s Bhudeo Chaudhary.
In all the four seats, the winners’ vote share margin in 2014 general elections remained below 16% suggesting a close battle. This time, the BJP is contesting only from Aurangabad where Sushil Kumar Singh defeated Congress's Nikhil Kumar.

The last general elections in Maharashtra witnessed a one-sided contest. BJP and its ally Shiv Sena won all the seven seats. While BJP won five seats, the Shiv Sena bagged the remaining two. In four of these seats, the victory margin was over 20%.

In 2014, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress clinched both the seats in the state. In Alipurduars, Revolutionary Socialist Party's Manohar Trikey (27.72%) lost to TMC's Dasrath Trikey (29.46%) by a margin of merely 1.74% votes. BJP’s Birendra Bara Oraon (27.3% votes) was a close third. He lost to the TMC's Trikey by a margin of 2.16% votes.

In Odisha, BJD ruled the roost in 2014 by winning all the four seats, which will be going to polls in phase 1 on April 11. However, the BJD faced tough competition from its competitors. In three of these seats, the victory margin was less than 5%. In Nabarangpur, BJD’s Balabhadra Majhi won by a margin of mere 2,042 votes.

Out of the total 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state, five seats will go to polls on April 11. On these five seats, BJP was victorious on four in 2014, with an average victory margin of 15% votes. The fifth seat was won by Congress's Gourav Gogoi who defeated BJP's Mrinal Kumar Saikia by a margin of 8% votes.