AIADMK faces dual anti-incumbency as a result of its tie-up with BJP

The AIADMK, which won all but two of the 39 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls under J Jayalalithaa, is facing a dual anti-incumbency factor –– a result of its partnership with the BJP. This factor has been leveraged to the hilt by the DMK Congress alliance.
North: Big Leaders in Fight
Traditionally a DMK stronghold, with the PMK enjoying some pockets of influence, North Tamil Nadu, which includes three Chennai constituencies, voted for the AIADMK in 2014, securing 40-50% of the voteshare in most constituencies.

The DMK is facing AIADMK alliance partner and Vanniyar vote-bank holder PMK in six constituencies. It will take on the AIADMK in the rest of the seats but faces a DMDK candidate in North Chennai.

Dayanadhi Maran, former telecom minister, and former union minister S Jagathrakshakan, seek to re-enter Parliament from Chennai Central and Arakonam. AIADMK MP Jayavardhan from South Chennai will take on Thamizhachi Thangapandian of the DMK, daughter of former DMK minister V Thangapandian.

Tight Contest in Vellore
Cash for votes was an issue in Vellore with election officials seizing Rs 11.53 crore from the premises of a DMK worker. Kathir Anand, son of DMK treasurer Durai Murugan, is taking on MGR loyalist AC Shanmugam in Vellore. Muslimdominated areas like Ambur and Vaniyambadi in Vellore could tilt the balance in favour of the DMK, while the Mudaliyars, to which Shanmugham belongs to, could vote in favour of the AIADMK.

Job Losses may Hurt AIADMK
Loss of several thousands of jobs in Sriperumbudur after the closure of the Nokia factory and flight of factories to Sri City, Andhra Pradesh, could impact the AIADMK in Kanchipuram and Sriperumbudur.

Centre: Rebel Factor
Central Tamil Nadu, an agrarian belt with paddy, coconut, and sugar cultivators, had voted en-masse for Jayalalithaa in 2014.

The seven constituencies will see the influence of the rebel contender to J Jayalalithaa’s legacy –– TTV Dhinakaran in the fray this time. Here, more than caste equations, the popularity of the candidates and alliance equations matter the most.

The DMK is fielding former Congress president S Thirunavukkarasar in Trichy. In Nagapattinam, a communist stronghold, the AIADMK is facing an aggressive campaign by CPI workers for former MP M Selvarasu.

The Gaja Cylcone
The Cauvery Delta districts of Trichy, Perambalur, Thanjavur and Nagapattinam in Central Tamil Nadu, agrarian problems, the less than desired relief efforts after the Gaja Cyclone in November last year, are the hot issues.

West: CM’s Home Ground
The AIADMK hopes to repeat its success in the 2016 assembly elections in the Kongu polls, where the ruling party swept almost all the legislature seats.

Chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, who hails from Salem, is focusing a lot on this region. The DMK and the AIADMK will contest directly from Salem, Erode, Namakkal, and The Nilgiris in the region, in what is expected to be a pitched battle between the Dravidian majors.

GST, DeMo
At Kongu, a hub for small and medium enterprises, GST had disrupted businesses and demonetisation has crippled operations. The AIADMK has been forced to defend demonetisation, push for Aadhaar, and GST.

The Chennai-Salem eight-lane highway ––supported by AIADMK –– is hanging in a limbo as the land acquisition process is nixed by court.

Vote Split in Coimbatore
CP Radhakrishnan, a twotime BJP MP is in the fray agai from this industrialised city. Radhakrishan polled second in 2014 with 3.89 lakh votes in 2014. A local mill owner in Coimbatore said the BJP candidate has urban voter support but Kamal Haasan’s party has made inroads which could split votes.

South: Caste & Religious Divide

Caste dynamics, Polarisation
In 2014, Pon Radhakrishnan emerged the lone victor for the BJP in southern Tamil Nadu. This time, caste equations in seats such as Madurai, Theni, and Tenkasi and religious polarisation are dominant themes. Theni is set to witness a Thevar sub-caste clash between O Panneerselvam’s son OP Ravindranath Kumar and TTV Dhinakaran loyalist Thanga Tamil Selvan.

Besides Sivaganga where BJP’s national secretary H Raja is pitted against Karti Chidambaram, the AIADMK has allotted Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi and Kanyakumari to the BJP –– a decision that triggered protests in the party.

Thoothukudi, a Dravidian bastion that voted for J Jayalalithaa’s candidate to Parliament with a margin of over one lakh votes, is now splintered along religious lines.

Sterlite Controversy
The violent upheaval against Vedanta-owned copper smelter that resulted in 13 deaths has made people’s attitudes change towards the AIADMK.

Fishermen, belonging to a Roman Catholic sect called ‘Fernando’ were heavily targeted by the police after the shooting last May, polarising them against the AIADMK government. The BJP has been trying to consolidate the Hindu Nadar votes in Thoothukudi, the community to which state BJP president T Soundarajan belongs to.

A notice to Church attenders, seen by ET, prepared for priests by the Christian Livelihood Movement carried an open endorsement for the DMK-Congress combine, to “protect the secular fabric of the country.”

Port in Kanyakumari
In Kanyakumari, BJP’s Pon Radhakrishnan is trying to retain his seat in a contest with Congress’ H Vasantha Kumar. “We are upset by the religious overtones and hope for a more secular alliance this time,” said John Posco, a fishing net weaver in Kanyakumari. Fishermen have vowed to oppose the Kanyakumari-Kovalam-Manakudi Port.