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    Karnataka’s direct fight to have straight impact on Government

    Synopsis

    As half of Karnataka's 28 lok sabha seats go to the polls today, none of the three seats from where Gowda family members are contesting seems safe.

    ET Bureau
    BENGALURU: With half of Karnataka’s 28 Lok Sabha seats going to the polls on Thursday, the state, which used to see a triangular fight between JDS, Congress and BJP, is all set to see a battle between the ruling Congress-JDS combine and the BJP. The fate of 11-month old ruling coalition hinges precariously on the outcome of the state’s two-phase polls as a victory for the BJP in key constituencies could lead to the coalition partners falling apart in the state.

    The BJP is focusing its entire campaign on prime minister Narendra Modi. Never in the recent past has the BJP focussed so much on one personality that it has even fielded a 28-year old rookie in the Bengaluru South Lok Sabha seat (a traditional BJP area) as it knows that the candidate is inconsequential there.

    For the first family of JDS comprising patriarch HD Deve Gowda, chief minister-son HD Kumaraswamy and minister-son HD Revanna –– there’s lot at stake.

    Of the seven seats that the JDS got as its share out of Karnataka’s 28 seats, Gowda is contesting from Tumkur, the CM’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy from Mandya and Revanna’s son Prajwal from Hassan. None of the three seems safe seats at the moment: while Nikhil is facing a formidable challenge from independent candidate Sumalatha Ambareesh, wife of the late actor-turned-politician Ambareesh, Prajwal is fighting BJP’s A Manju, a 62-year old veteran who was a minister in the previous Congress government. And for Gowda, Tumakuru is an alien seat, while his BJP rival GS Basavaraju has won from here before. Political analysts say both cousins have to win for the coalition regime to survive, given the fact that there are issues within the first family, and both brothers are keen to see their sons build their political base in Hassan and Mandya.

    POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
    There are five broad political regions in Karnataka: the Old Mysuru region including Bengaluru; Central Karnataka including Davanagere and surrounding districts; Coastal Karnataka; Mumbai Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka. These regions currently have 16 BJP, nine Congress and two JDS MPs. One seat was vacant after Union minister Anathkumar’s death. In constituencies other than those in the Old Mysuru districts, JDS has a scant presence. In fact, it struggled to find candidates for Uttara Kannada and Vijayapura seats, which it had got as part of its seat-sharing deal with the Congress.

    Though the JDS bears the “secular” tag, the party is more identified with the Vokkaligas, the second largest community after Lingayats. The Lingayats, however, have no love lost for the JD(S) after HD Kumaraswamy reneged on his deal to transfer power to BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa during the former’s stint as CM.

    OLD MYSURU
    The JDS) is a force to reckon with only in pockets where Vokkaligas have a dominant presence such as Bengaluru City, Bengaluru Rural, Mandya, Mysuru, Chamarajangar, Hassan, Kolar, Tumakuru and Chikkaballapur. The party current holds two seats, while the BJP holds four and the Congress five. While the Congress is strong in rural parts of these districts, the BJP has deep roots in the urban pockets of Bengaluru and Mysuru.

    CENTRAL KARNATAKA
    The region comprises Chitradurga, Davanagere and Shivamogga. Both the BJP and Congress are strong, but the BJP currently holds two seats.

    MUMBAI KARNATAKA
    The BJP has been establishing its grip on the Mumbai-Karnataka seats of Haveri, Dharwad, Belagavi, Chikkodi, Bagalkot and Bijapura holding five of these seats.

    HYDERABAD KARNATAKA

    In Hyderabad Karnataka, which includes Bidar, Gulbarga, Raichur, Koppal and Ballari, the Congress is quite strong, and currently has three seats.

    COASTAL KARNATAKA
    The BJP won all three seats— Mangaluru, Udupi-Chikkamagaluru and Uttara Kannada. It has deepened its footprint in this hilly region leveraging the divide between Hindus, Muslims and Christians. The BJP has been playing the victim card by running campaigns on the killings of RSS workers. This is also a region where the Socialist Democratic Party of India (SDPI), with alleged links to the Popular Front of India (PFI), is active. Several Muslim voters feel let down by the Congress, as a result of which they look at options such as SDPI.

    Chikkamagaluru was once a Congress stronghold, from where the then prime minister Indira Gandhi had contested from in 1978. Ballari too was a Congress bastion with party leader Sonia Gandhi having won from here in 1999. In the years that followed, BJP’s influence has increased in Ballari. In the by-elections to the Lok Sabha seat vacated by the BJP, the Congress candidate VS Ugrappa recorded a stunning victory, and is seeking re-election with the backing of the JDS.

    KEY LEADERS IN THE FRAY
    Congress floor leader in the LS Mallikarjuna Kharge (Gulbarga), M Veerappa Moily, Union ministers DV Sadananda Gowda, and Ananth Kumar Hegde (Uttara Kannada) are in the fray.

    REGIME SURVIVAL
    At stake is the reputation of former Congress CM Siddaramaiah, who heads the JDS-Congress Coordination Committee. After a hard bargain, he got Mysuru seat, where the Congress has fielded CH Vijayashankar. While the Congress support is critical for the success of the JDS candidates in Tumkur, Hassan and Mandya, the JDS will have to work overtime if the Congress has to win in Mysuru. It is in this context that Siddaramaiah’s statement that his party has to win in Mysuru if the coalition regime is to survive is significant.


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