BJP, Congress try to get caste & tribe mix right

Riding on the "Modi wave", the BJP had bagged all the 26 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Five years later, local issues have resurfaced. If the 2014 polls saw the saffron party’s best ever show in the state, it was Congress’ turn to stage its best performance in two decades during the 2017 assembly election, when it restricted the BJP’s tally to double digits.

NORTH GUJARAT
Sabarkantha, Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad East & Ahmedabad West

KEY CANDIDATES
Amit Shah (BJP) Gandhinagar, Geeta Patel (Congress) Ahmedabad East

While the BJP is comfortable in the urban seats of Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad, the party faces some serious discontent from farmers and communities like the Patidars and Thakores in Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Patan and Mehsana. Mehsana was the epicentre of the Patidar agitation in 2015. While Mehsana was a BJP stronghold, the Patidar agitation and the party’s internal discord have made the party shaky this time. Similarly, Patan has an overwhelming Thakore population which could pose a challenge, along with Banaskantha, as the Congress has fielded Parthi Bhatol –– a heavyweight from the dairy cooperative from Banaskantha –– and Jagdish Thakore, a strong Thakore leader from Patan.

With national BJP president Amit Shah contesting from Gandhinagar, one of the safest seats for the BJP in Gujarat, the question is whether Shah will break all records of victory margin as he has been extensively campaigning in the area. The two other seats — Ahmedabad East and Ahmedabad West — too have been loyal to the BJP and with the urban voters backing the party, the Congress is unlikely to make inroads in the area. However, Patidar discontent may impact the margins.

SAURASHTRA
(Surendranagar, Kutch, Jamnagar, Junagarh, Porbandar, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Rajkot)

KEY CANDIDATE
Paresh Dhanani (Congress) Amreli

Farm distress, water scarcity and Patidar discontent are the major issues of the region. While the area let down the BJP significantly in the 2017 election, Amreli poses the most serious challenge to the party in 2019. The Congress has fielded its leader of opposition in the Assembly Paresh Dhanani who has a strong grip on the constituency which is aready seeing strong anti-incumbency against BJP MP Naran Kachhadia. With both the candidates from the Patidar community, local issues like farm distress are giving sleepless nights to the BJP. The region has witnessed thousands of farmers rallying against insurance companies for alleged nonpayment of claims and agitations over land issues. Low MSP for cotton and groundnut has also been issues. Sources in the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh admit that farmers’ disaffection can spell serious trouble for the party. Two more seats — Junagarh and Surendranagar — are likely to see a keen contest with the dominating Koli voters deciding the fate of the candidates.

In Porbandar, BJP has fielded Ramesh Dhaduk — a Patidar— replacing Patidar strongman Vitthal Radadiya. While the discontent of the Radadiya faction may impact the election to some extent, strong allegiance to the BJP and the nationalist agenda is likely to see the party through.

Central Gujarat
(Kheda, Anand, Vadodara, Chhota Udepur, Panchmahal, Dahod)

KEY CANDIDATE
Bharatsinh Solanki (Cong) Anand

Traditionally, Anand and Dahod –– reserved seats for the scheduled tribes –– were Congress’ safe seats, which were lost to the BJP during the 2014 Modi wave while Vadodara Chhota Udaipur and Panchmahal remained with the BJP. The region, susceptible to communal mobilisation, has responded more to communal triggers than other areas of the state. This election, the Congress is hopeful of reclaiming Anand where it has fielded Bharatsinh Solanki, son of former Gujarat chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki and a former Union minister himself. In Dahod, BJP’s Ramesh Katara is taking on BJP turncoat Babu Katara, who was embroiled in a human trafficking case in 2007 and was thrown out of the party. Babu has edged out Congress heavyweight Prabha Taviyad in Dahod. BJP, however, is not expecting much trouble in the region apart from a serious contest in Anand.

SOUTH GUJARAT
(Bharuch, Bardoli, Navsari, Valsad and Surat)

KEY CANDIDATE
Chhotu Vasava (BTP) Bharuch

Traditionally, whichever party wins Valsad goes on to form the central government. Rahul Gandhi started his campaign from Dharampur in Valsad this time, much in the footsteps of his family. Basic issues of the region include farmer and tribal unrest because of land acquisition for the much-hyped Statue of Unity and bullet train project. While the Congress had hoped to bag at least Bharuch seat by fielding its heavyweight leader Ahmed Patel (who has excused himself ), the contest has turned triangular with tribal strongman Chhotu Vasava throwing his hat in the ring under the banner of his own party — BTP. Congress has fielded young Sherkhan Pathan while the BJP has repeated its tribal leader Mansukh Vasava.