Lok Sabha elections: In PM Modi's home state, challenges for both BJP and Congress

Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah made it to the highest echelons of power in the national capital, their home state of Gujarat has held a special place on India's electoral map. Considered the home base of BJP, Gujarat will go to polls in Phase 3 on April 23 and the two-way battle between the BJP and the Congress in the state will be one of the most keenly-watched contests in the country.
Since the battle for Gujarat is a matter of prestige for the Modi-Shah duo, the BJP cannot afford to appear weak in the coastal state. The sentiment was clear when PM Modi said that the loss of even a single seat in the state will invite taunts and questions from his critics. Meanwhile, a resurgent Congress is looking to consolidate on the gains of the 2017 assembly elections when it almost pushed the ruling party to the wall.
However, both the parties have their work cut out for them. While the BJP is battling anti-incumbency and factors like agrarian distress, the Congress appears weaker compared to 2017 due to a spate of defections and the loss of Alpesh Thakore, who formed the troika of Hardik-Alpesh-Jignesh that helped the party in the 2017 assembly elections.
Will the BJP repeat its 2014 performance and manage another clean sweep in Gujarat or can the Congress make headway in the ruling party's bastion? Here is a look at some of the key factors that can guide the political landscape in Gujarat.
The test of Brand Modi
During the 2014 general election, the BJP's campaign pitch was centered around Narendra Modi and, by extension, the "Gujarat model". The people of the state connected to the party's "Gujarati pride" poll plank and aspired to install a Gujarati leader as the Prime Minister in Delhi. It was the ensuing "Modi wave" that helped the party win all 26 seats in the state with an impressive vote share of nearly 60% and dislodge the Congress even in bastions like Anand.
However, a lot has changed since the previous general election. Factors such as Patidar discontent, rural distress and a lacklustre post-Modi administration have hurt the state leadership in the last five years. The writing on the wall was clear after the outcome of 2017 assembly election results. Despite a last-hour campaign blitzkrieg by Modi, which may have just helped the BJP hold on to power, the party had to settle for less than a 100 seats in the 182-member house. The Modi persona will again be put to test in the Lok Sabha polls but without the bold guarantee of ensuring another perfect score of 26-0.
Amit Shah's electoral debut
In 2014, Modi's decision to choose Vadodara as his second seat came as a shot in the arm for the state BJP unit and energized party cadres across the state. In 2019, it is Shah's turn to assume that role. The party's decision to field Shah from the prestigious Gandhinagar seat and place him in the league of veterans like L K Advani, six-time MP from the constituency, and former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who won from the seat in 1996, is as symbolic as it is strategic.
Party workers are upbeat about Shah's maiden electoral bid and hope it will strengthen the BJP's position in Gujarat. "We take great pride in the fact that PM Narendra Modi is from Gujarat. In the same way, party workers are thrilled that Amit Shah will also represent Gujarat in the Lok Sabha," state chief minister Vijay Rupani said after the BJP announced Shah's candidature. Shah knows lakhs of workers personally in the Gandhinagar constituency and managed the Lok Sabha seat during the terms that Advani represented the constituency. That his local connect and rapport with party cadres will help BJP reap rich dividends in the state is pretty much a foregone conclusion.
Congress's bid to hold on to its 2017 gains
Going by the voting patterns from 2017 assembly polls, the BJP may end up losing as many as eight Lok Sabha seats to the Congress in the general election. In 2017, the Congress received more votes than the BJP in constituencies of Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Surendranagar, Junagadh, Amreli and Anand. However, the Congress's poll prospects are not as bright in the North Gujarat region as they were just two years ago.
The trio of Jignesh Mevani, Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor was the primary reason why the Congress made big gains in the North Gujarat region, which has a significant presence of Patidar, Dalit and OBC communities. The support of these young turks, who represent different castes, helped the party post its best performance in the state in almost three decades. But nearly two years later, their plunge into politics seems to have taken a hit.
Thakor, a Congress MLA from Radhanpur, quit the party just weeks ahead of the Lok Sabha elections citing "betrayal". Dalit leader Mevani, who won as an Independent from Vadnagar in 2017 with the Congress's support, is now focusing on a national level role. And Hardik's electoral ambition suffered a major blow when the Gujarat high court refused to stay his conviction in a rioting case. Though Hardik continues to campaign for the party, the fact that he will not enter the electoral fray will certainly hurt the Congress's prospects.
Patidar anger and farm distress
Despite losing its formidable trio, the Congress is still hopeful of putting up a strong show in the state, especially in the Saurashtra and North Gujarat regions where Patidar discontent and farm anger remain crucial factors. State Congress leaders are confident that the party might wrest at least four Lok Sabha seats in the Saurashtra region — Amreli, Junagadh, Botad and Surendranagar — from the BJP. The party's confidence is also evident from the fact that it traditionally fares well with the rural voters in the state and won a lion's share of its seats in the 2017 assembly polls in agrarian pockets.
On the other hand, the BJP seems to have gone back to the drawing board and has rolled out a plan to reverse the damage following its 2017 rout in Saurashtra. Since the state polls, the BJP has pulled off a coup by winning over senior Congress leader and OBC strongman Kunvarji Bavaliya. It has also managed to poach four Congress MLAs to rebuild its strong position in the region.
The BJP also claims that Patidar discontent is no longer a factor in the state and expresses hope that the rural voters will support it in the national elections. The party's confidence comes from two key decisions taken by the Modi government this year — 10% quota for the general category poor and Rs 6,000 annual income scheme for farmers.
But despite last-minute induction of Congress leaders and the PM-Kisan scheme, wooing rural voters remains a challenge for the BJP. The arid Saurashtra region saw one of its worst draughts last year and this is where the BJP lost 11 assembly seats to the Congress in the 2017 state polls. With Modi himself underlining the importance of winning all 26 seats in Gujarat, the Saurashtra region may just decide whether or not the party can repeat its 2014 feat.