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    Modi’s nationalism and Rahul’s loan waiver find takers in good numbers in Madhya Pradesh

    Synopsis

    The standout fact is that BJP was routed in the Gwalior-Chambal belt in the recent Assembly elections as Congress won 26 of the 34 seats –– the highest since the state was formed.

    pragya---digvijay---agencieAgencies
    Sadhvi Pragya Singh Thakur (left) and Digvijaya Singh.
    BHOPAL | VIDISHA | RAJGARH | GUNA | GWALIOR: As Madhya Pradesh goes to vote on May 12, it would see high-profile battles for “VIP seats” which will decide the fate of political stalwarts. Congress veteran Digvijaya Singh is locked in a tight contest with Malegaon blast accused Sadhvi Pragya in Bhopal, Jyotiraditya Scindia is contesting from Gwalior royals’ family borough Guna, Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar is in Morena and there is a tough fight in BJP’s stronghold Vidisha, which has been won by external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj, former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee and former MP chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

    What’s interesting is the fact that BJP was routed in the Gwalior-Chambal belt in the recent Assembly elections as Congress won 26 of the 34 seats –– the highest since the state was formed. ET travelled through Gwalior-Chambal and Madhya regions to find the key factors turning voter sentiment and whether Congress retains the edge of 2018 polls.

    THE CASTE CALCULUS

    Gwalior-Chambal region, comprising Morena, Bhind, Gwalior and Guna parliamentary segments, is now synonymous with a deep caste divide, which seems to be the main factor in these elections. The roots of this divide between the upper castes and Dalits are in the protests that ravaged the region in April 2018. Gwalior city’s Thatipur area was the epicentre of the violence that erupted following a March 20 Supreme Court order last year that banned automatic arrests under the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. Though both sides have blamed each other for the violence, police firing and subsequent deaths, it has left an indelible mark on the region.

    Getram, father of Rakesh Tamotiya who was killed in the violence on April 2, 2018, says, “We are living in constant fear. We were assured a government job, adequate compensation, a small tenement and an arms licence. But nothing has come.”

    This cluster of Dalit tenements in Bhim Nagar, Jagjivan Ram Nagar and Galla Kotha have been loyal BSP voters. Some even think that the government aid under the SC/ST Act, which came after the violence, was sent by Mayawati. However, it is the Congress they are rooting for this time. Mohan Jatav, whose 22-year-old son Deepak was killed, says, “The upper caste men still come and threaten us.” The common perception is that the Modi government did not represent facts before the Supreme Court leading to the adverse order.

    The sentiment is felt across the region, even in Guna. Sitting Gwalior MP and Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar was forced to move base to Morena. Both parties are openly talking about the violence. While BJP takes the credit for turning the clock back on the order through a legislation, Congress blames the saffron party for the lives lost and siding with the upper castes.

    1


    BATTLE OF PRESTIGE
    Directly or indirectly, bigwigs from both sides are involved in this high stakes battle. Even though Digvijaya Singh is contesting from Bhopal, his political influence will be tested as two of his confidants—Rajgarh candidate Mona Sustani and Gwalior candidate Ashok Singh—have been fielded. In Vidisha, Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s trusted lieutenant Ramakant Bhargava is fighting his first parliamentary election. Meanwhile, Scindia had been lobbying for a ticket from Gwalior for his wife Priyadarshini. However, the request was denied and Ashok Singh, who had lost narrowly even during the Modi wave of 2014, was favoured. Scindia, who enjoys great mass following, has been entrusted with campaigning for Singh. In Bhopal, former chief ministers Chouhan and Uma Bharti have been roped in to drive Sadhvi Pragya’s campaign.

    2


    NATIONALISM DEBATE
    Across the state, the common factor remains nationalism and Modi’s popularity. However, in Gwalior-Chambal and Madhya constituencies of Vidisha, Bhopal and Rajgarh, local issues are in the fore –– BJP is slamming the Kamal Nath government for its “failure” in delivering its poll promises of farm loan waiver and unemployment allowance. The Congress is focusing on development and the “We have delivered” theme. Congress’ Ashok Singh says, “About 15 days ago, I wrote a letter to the PM seeking his definition of ‘nationalism’. There has been silence. I don’t think he will reply. But I want to tell my electorate that I am a desh bhakt nationalist.”

    Bhaiyyaji Lal, a resident of Biaora village in Rajgarh, says, “We don’t have jobs. Nobody is thinking of farmers. What will Pakistan do in this election?” A fruit seller listening to this debate says, “For us, it is what the community decides. We are maalis, we vote for BJP. It has nothing to do with Pakistan or anything.”

    TURNOUT MATTERS
    After the first phases, political parties are keenly looking for a pattern in high voter turnouts. Sudhir Mandeliya, a Congress functionary in Gwalior, says, “If the voter turnout is high in rural areas, it favours Congress. We need to carefully look at which area has the high voter turnout.” In Bhopal, for instance, Congress is eyeing 4.5 lakh Muslim voters who had voted for BJP’s Alok Sanjar in 2014, but who are obviously disconcerted with the candidature of Sadhvi Pragya. Congress is working at the booth level to ensure this constituency turns out to vote. Prashant Saini, a native of Morena who is a BJP functionary in Gwalior, says, “The voter turnout is going to make the biggest difference for us.”


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