Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

India’s Narendra Modi Appears Headed for Re-election, Exit Polls Show

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, shown in Varanasi, India, last month, seems positioned to govern with a strong hand for five more years.Credit...Sanjay Kanojia/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

NEW DELHI — Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one of the most powerful and divisive leaders India has produced in decades, appeared headed for re-election, according to exit polls released Sunday at the end of mammoth parliamentary elections.

Mr. Modi seems to have emerged from the largest democratic vote in human history relatively unscathed by growing complaints across India about joblessness and distress on farms.

According to all of the major exit polls, Mr. Modi’s brand of brawny Hindu nationalist politics, coupled with his efforts to project a strong image of India abroad, played well among the 900 million registered voters. If the voter surveys prove accurate, Mr. Modi is positioned to govern with a strong hand for five more years.

To the very end, he campaigned as a passionate Hindu. Mr. Modi spent Saturday night and Sunday morning, the last day of the election, praying at a Hindu shrine and meditating in a remote Himalayan cave.

Image
Voters waiting at a polling site outside Varanasi, India, on Sunday in the final phase of the country’s six-week parliamentary elections.Credit...Rajesh Kumar Singh/Associated Press

At least seven exit polls released by Indian media organizations on Sunday night predicted that Mr. Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., and its allies would win at least 280 of the 545 seats in the lower house of Parliament, empowering them to choose the next prime minister.

[Read the latest updates on India’s election results.]

If the actual results back the polls up, it will be a much more dominating performance than many analysts had thought was possible. Official results are expected on Thursday.

“The exit polls are surprising,” said Sudha Pai, a former political science professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, the capital. Mr. Modi’s social media efforts and the fact that the opposition was divided delivered bigger-than-expected gains, she said.

Similar exit polls in other recent Indian elections have accurately predicted the broader trends.

The exit polls this time forecast that the Indian National Congress, the leading opposition party, would do marginally better than its stunning defeat in the last elections in 2014. But it still seemed destined to remain a distant second.

Rahul Gandhi, Congress’s leader and the scion of an Indian political dynasty, had tried to pick up votes by appealing to communal harmony and minority rights. But that seemed no match for Mr. Modi’s aggressive and well-financed campaign machine, which enjoys the fervent support of many grass-roots groups within India’s Hindu majority.

“One thing we know for sure is that Modi remains incredibly popular despite everything that’s happened in the last five years,” said Milan Vaishnav, a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Nothing really sticks to him.”

The elections were a six-week affair. Voting was conducted in stages, with different parts of the country voting at different times. The first votes were cast in mid-April and the last ones were on Sunday. All results will be released together, on Thursday.

Image
Rahul Gandi, leader of the Indian National Congress party, after casting his ballot last week in New Delhi.Credit...Sajjad Hussain/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Indian officials moved from constituency to constituency across this vast landscape, from high snowy mountains to lush tropical isles in the Andaman Sea.

Wherever he campaigned, Mr. Modi made national security a major issue. Earlier this year, grumbles about his missteps on the economy had been growing, and farmers had protested against his government, saying its policies were making them poorer.

But in February, Mr. Modi got a huge boost. After militants struck Indian forces in the disputed territory of Kashmir, which both India and Pakistan claim, Mr. Modi ordered airstrikes on Pakistan.

No matter that independent security analysts said the airstrikes missed their targets. Or that Pakistan downed an Indian fighter jet the next day.

Image
Supporters of Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party at a rally this month in Allahabad, India.Credit...Sanjay Kanojia/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Indian flags popped up across the country overnight, raised by a burst of jingoism, and Mr. Modi’s approval ratings swiftly increased.

As news of the exit polls spread, the people most distressed were India’s minorities. Under Mr. Modi’s government, mob violence against Muslims, who make up about 14 percent, and lower caste Hindus has increased, and the bloodshed often goes unpunished.

Mr. Modi’s brand of politics, rooted in Hindu supremacist groups that believe Hindus are the rightful rulers of India, has polarized this heterogeneous country, raising fear and tensions.

If the exit poll data is any indication, it seems the opposition parties’ complaints that India has become more divided under Mr. Modi did not change many voters’ minds. According to the data, Mr. Modi’s party won in most of the areas it won in the last election.

The big losses that some political analysts had predicted in northern India do not seem to have materialized.

Like any exit polls, those in India are imperfect, but their accuracy has improved in recent years.

The major exit polls in 2014 correctly predicted a win for the B.J.P.-led coalition. In 2009, exit polls accurately forecast that Congress would gain the most seats, though the data underestimated the number ultimately won by the Congress alliance.

The current exit polls were conducted by Indian research and survey organizations, many with decades of experience, which partnered with news media outlets. According to the polling organizations, the sample size for each exit poll varied from 40,000 voters to two million.

Some analysts have cautioned that exit polls may overstate Mr. Modi’s support because some people would be scared to say they voted against him. But overall, political scientists said they seemed reliable.

Video
bars
0:00/7:48
-0:00

transcript

How Modi Tried to Use a Religious Crisis to Win Votes

Our reporter Jeffrey Gettleman traveled to Kerala to see how Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to use a controversy at one of India’s holiest shrines to win another five-year term.

I’m trying to get to Sabarimala Temple, one of India’s holiest Hindu shrines. “You’re going to Sabarimala?” “We’re going to the top.” But it’s not easy. “We go talk to him?” “That man.” “O.K. Let’s go.” There are police everywhere. “Hello, sir.” They seem to be on high alert. “Times?” “New York Times.” “American. American.” “’New York Times. The New York Times, over.” “Thanks for your help, yeah?” “Thank you, sir.” In the end, I get through, and I walk among thousands of pilgrims who are here to worship the god Ayyappa. “Oh, cool. There it is. There it is. This is it. It’s like a whole little town here.” One group I don’t see? Women, between the ages of 10 and 50. The devout believe Ayyappa is a celibate god and those women could tempt him. But I do meet the vigilantes who are here to stop any young women from entering. “Right here, what are you looking for?” “Right here, we’ll be asking: How old are you?” Traditionally, women of childbearing age have been banned from coming here. But last year, the Indian Supreme Court said it was illegal to block them. The decision erupted into a religious crisis that lasted for months. [chanting] The devout were furious. They said it was an assault on their religion. And the political right wing seized an opportunity. They rushed in, calling themselves the defenders of tradition, and helped fuel violent protests. So, I came here to feel the reverberations. How much can a controversy over one temple shape politics in the world’s largest democracy? I’m Jeffrey Gettleman. It’s election time, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely win another five-year term. [cheering and applause] This is the first time I’ve actually seen Modi in person. And wow, to rouse his base, he knows exactly what to say and how to say it. He’s trying to leverage the controversy over Sabarimala Temple into votes for his party, the B.J.P. Reporter: “Hello, ma’am. So, you like Modi?” “Yeah, definitely.” “Why?” “I think —” Reporter: “Some people say B.J.P. divides India between Hindus and Muslims. What do you say?” Reporter: “Even the Muslims?” “Yeah.” Reporter: “So, you think of it as Hindus or Indians?” Among many Modi supporters, this is a core belief, that India is a Hindu nation, despite the fact that people of many religions live here. And I wonder what this means for minorities, and for the future of this democracy. See, since Modi came to power five years ago, hate crimes against Muslims have shot up. Lynch mobs have killed dozens of people suspected of slaughtering cows, which are sacred to Hindus. To be clear, Modi doesn’t encourage the violence, but critics say he hasn’t forcefully condemned it, either. Now, his party is riding this wave of Hindu nationalism into the most secular parts of the country. That’s another reason why I came here, to Kerala. It’s a progressive state. Modi’s party has never won a single Parliament seat from here. This is the party that hold the most seats in Kerala, the Indian National Congress. It stands for a pluralist, secular India. So this is the last place I’d expect the Hindu right to succeed. But the state has turned into a real battleground, all because of Sabarimala. Not far from the temple, I meet up with K. Surendran on the campaign trail. He’s a B.J.P. candidate for Parliament, and he was one of the thousands arrested for rioting at Sabarimala and physically blocking women from entering. It made him a hero of the Hindu right. It’s impressive to see him work the crowd. He doesn’t even have to say much. [singing] People here know exactly where he stands on Sabarimala, and that’s what matters. Modi’s party has another advantage — a strong ground game. These men are volunteers with the R.S.S. — The hardline Hindu organization known for churning out leaders. They’re basically Modi’s foot soldiers. There are thousands of branches like this one. Modi, himself, actually rose up through their ranks. Hari Mohan joined this group when he was 9, and now he helps recruit some of the younger guys. As soon as their workout ends, he and his R.S.S. friends fan out to door-knock for Modi and the B.J.P. What’s interesting is Hari doesn’t talk about jobs, farms or the broader economy — Modi isn’t doing so well on those. Instead, Sabarimala Temple is really the issue. I realize that for most people here, even women, the controversy isn’t about gender equality. It’s about traditions, and who will protect them at all costs. India is a deeply religious country. India is also a secular democracy. These two things are becoming harder to square as religion, and one religion in particular, comes to dominate politics. This moment feels like a battle over very different visions for India’s future. And what happens here in Kerala could predict the direction of the entire country.

Video player loading
Our reporter Jeffrey Gettleman traveled to Kerala to see how Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to use a controversy at one of India’s holiest shrines to win another five-year term.

“In the majority of the cases, exit polls have depicted the true picture,” said Josukutty Cheriantharayil Abraham, director of the survey research center at the University of Kerala. “It may not be correct in terms of the number of seats or vote percentage, but it could definitely show the trends.”

Mr. Gandhi did not comment on the exit polls. After the voting ended, he complained in a Twitter message that India’s election commission’s “capitulation before Mr. Modi and his gang is obvious to all Indians.’’

In contrast, the B.J.P. posted a cartoon on Twitter of Mr. Modi crushing a scattered opposition with a giant lawn mower as spectators give him the thumbs-up.

“With this,” the illustration read, “the opportunistic hodgepodge is over.”

Ayesha Venkataraman contributed reporting from Mapusa, India, and Suhasini Raj from Jaipur, India.

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 4 of the New York edition with the headline: Modi Appears Headed for Another Term as India’s Leader. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT