VIJAYAWADA: YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress appears headed for a landslide victory in Andhra Pradesh if one were to go by exit polls released after the conclusion of the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha elections on Sunday evening. Intriguingly, while most predicted a YSRC sweep in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, exit polls by Today’s Chanakya, C-Voter-Republic TV, and RG-Flash of former MP Lagadapati Rajagopal favoured N Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party holding out hope for the yellow party and suggesting that the results might go down to the wire.
Elections for 25 Lok Sabha and 175 Assembly seats were held simultaneously in the State on April 11. India Today-Axis and CPS gave YSRC 130-135 and 130-133 Assembly seats respectively. Both claimed TDP would be restricted to 37-40 and 43-44 seats respectively. According to Aaraa, YSRC may win 117-135 segments and the TDP 38-56. Aaraa, much like the CPS, came up with a more or less accurate survey after last year’s polls in Telangana.
Its survey says YSRC would up its vote percentage to 48.78 per cent while the TDP’s could be down to 40.15 per cent. Film actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena is likely to get 0-2 Assembly seats, as per India Today-Axis exit polls. Aaraa gave Jana Sena vote share of 7.81 per cent, suggesting Pawan’s party ate into the TDP’s vote share this time around.
In 2014, the TDP had won 102 Assembly seats and the YSRC 67 but the difference in vote share between them was marginal with the TDP-BJP alliance (with Pawan’s support) securing 46.69 per cent and the YSRC 45.01 per cent.
Mixed predictions: YSRC jubilant, TDP leaders put up a brave face
As far as the Parliamentary exit polls are concerned, Times Now- VMR gave YSRC 17 seats and the TDP 8. Similarly, India Today-Axis predicted 18-20 seats to YSRC and 4-6 to TDP. Interestingly, Today’s Chanakya, gave TDP a massive 14-20 seats. YSRC, according to Today’s Chanakya, is expected to get 5 to 11 LS seats.
C-Voter-Republic TV too gave an edge to Naidu’s party with 14 seats over 11 for YSRC. Jan Ki Baat-Republic TV, however, claimed YSRC could win 13-16 Lok Sabha seats and the TDP 8-12. News18-IPSoS survey too said the battle between the two parties could be neck-and-neck, predicting 13-14 seats for YSRC and 10-12 for TDP. Interestingly, it claimed the BJP could win a seat in Andhra — something unthinkable. NDTV’s poll of polls gave the YSRC 15 Lok Sabha seats and 10 to the TDP. NewsX-Neta gave a whopping 20 seats to the YSRC and five to the TDP.
Out of the 175 Assembly segments in the State, most exit polls gave YSRC over 110 seats. However, the controversial Lagadapati Rajagopal’s RG-Flash said the TDP would form the government with 90-110 seats. The former Congress MP, whose prediction in Telangana Assembly elections last year proved wrong, said the YSRC would manage to clinch 65-79 seats. In 2014 too, most of the exit polls favoured the YSRC. However, finally, the TDP, supported by Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena and the BJP, won 102 seats.
As the exit polls poured in, TDP leaders put up a brave face. TDP senior leader Somireddy Chandramohan Reddy told TNIE that several surveys gave predictions in favour of the TDP. “I strongly believe that schemes like Pasupu Kumkuma (financial benefit to self-help groups), enhancement of social pensions and Annadata Sukhibhava (financial aid to farmers) will give us the mandate as there are more than one lakh such beneficiaries in every Assembly constituency,” he said, adding that party chief Naidu had advised them not to believe in the exit polls as “most of the national channels and nation-wide survey agencies are caught in the trap of BJP and Modi.”
The YSRC, meanwhile, is jubilant. Former MP and senior leader YV Subba Reddy said exit polls reflected what they had been saying for months before the polls and also after the polls. “Though Naidu conjured up a few tricks like distributing money to women under the Pasupu Kumkuma scheme just before the elections, the people knew his true colours and decided to kick him out,’’ he said.
He added that YSRC chief YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, who covered about 3,641 km during his padayatra, instilled confidence among the people. “We are sure of winning 125-135 Assembly and 20-22 MP seats,’’ Reddy asserted.
PK not to be kingmaker?
The Jana Sena Party of Pawan Kalyan was projected to play a kingmaker in the State, but going by exit polls it’s most unlikely to be a force to reckon with. No exit poll survey indicated the party winning more than a couple of seats in the 175-seat Assembly.
Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the People’s pulse. Exit polls have proved to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances. While undoubtedly TDP govt will be formed in AP, we are confident that non-BJP parties will form a non-BJP govt at the center.
N Chandrababu Naidu @NCBN