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News Analysis

The Choice in India: ‘Our Trump’ or a Messier Democracy

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India during a roadshow in Varanasi, India, last month.Credit...Adnan Abidi/Reuters

NEW DELHI — In Hungary, Viktor Orban demonized immigrants and secured an expansion of his power. In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan purged his enemies and won a new term. In Australia, Scott Morrison shrugged off calls for tougher carbon-emissions rules and was unexpectedly kept on as leader.

And in India, where the world’s biggest parliamentary election appears to be boiling down to a binary choice — Yes or No on Prime Minister Narendra Modi — the electorate seems poised to bring back Mr. Modi, extending the wave of victories by right-wing populists around the world.

India’s election finished on Sunday and the results are scheduled to be announced Thursday. The results may reveal not just a decision on Mr. Modi but a deeper one on what kind of government India really wants.

[Read the latest updates on India’s election results.]

Does it want a dominating leader who keeps a tight grip on power? Or would it be happier with a messier but more freewheeling coalition government?

And do Indians prefer a religiously driven nation or a secular one? Mr. Modi’s political rise began deep in the ranks of a Hindu nationalist organization, and under him, mob violence has surged against India’s minority Muslims. Many Indians are concerned about the legacy Mr. Modi will leave on India’s social fabric should he remain in power for five more years, the parliamentary term.

Around the world, it has become the age of the political big man, and no one disputes that Mr. Modi is the biggest force India has produced in decades.

He stirs huge crowds. He sets wildly ambitious goals, such as building 100 million toilets in five years, which he essentially reached (though he failed to deliver on his promise to create millions of new jobs). He projects a strong image of India abroad, putting India in position to play a larger role on the world stage as the United States and China vie for influence around the region. He is decisive and acts more like a president than a prime minister.

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Mr. Modi and President Trump at the ASEAN Summit in Manila, the Philippines, in 2017.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

At the same time, Mr. Modi, 68, is widely accused of dividing his own people, pitting religious and social communities against each other and cutting out other layers of government in a quest to consolidate power.

Many of Mr. Modi’s supporters see his personalization of power as a good thing. If the exit polls predicting his victory are reliable — and previous exit polls in India have broadly been — it seems that he has followed the same winning recipe of other successful populist and right-leaning politicians like Mr. Orban and Mr. Erdogan.

“Modi is doing what these other leaders are doing — he’s projecting resolve, masculinity, determination, daring and courage,” said Ashutosh Varshney, the director of the Center for Contemporary South Asia at Brown University. “People who are voting for him are voting for a strong national leader.’’

“It’s all coming from the same phenomenon,’’ Mr. Varshney added, “a rise in populism.”

For years, India was run by fractious, weak governments that got tied up in parliamentary dogfights. Big initiatives failed to take off. India struggled to assert itself internationally. In the eyes of his supporters, Mr. Modi is the surest bet for this country to grasp glory and actually get something done.

These days, it’s not unusual to hear Indians describe Modi as “our Trump,” which is said in antipodal ways, either with pride or scorn.

“Trump and Modi are twins separated by continents,” said Chandra Bhan Prasad, a well-known political commentator. “Both are against knowledge, they consider the past as the golden period, they consider themselves the center of gravity.”

Political analysts say there is no shortage of similarities between the two, including their combative style, their prolific use of Twitter and their talent for stoking nationalism — and spreading fear — to firm up their bases.

Mr. Modi’s aspirational message to India’s young and fast-growing population is not so different from Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again.”

In Indian politics, there’s no one who can touch Mr. Modi in terms of his forcefulness or his aura. His white bearded face is everywhere and he is a master of the grand gesture. He spent the last moments of the election campaign praying at a Hindu shrine and meditating in a remote Himalayan cave — in front of a film crew. The video of him sitting against a rock wall, eyes closed in apparent bliss, was beamed around India.

His party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., has built the most organized and richest campaign machine. Some Indian media sites estimate that it has raised more than $700 million, a whopping amount that dwarfs the total of all other parties by several times.

And he enjoys another advantage: His party has a serious ground game. The B.J.P. is closely connected to a network of Hindu religious groups that have sprung into action this election season and sent vast legions of volunteers across India to knock on doors and target voters, down to individual apartment blocs.

Even among Indians who said they voted for the Congress Party, led by Rahul Gandhi, in recent state elections, several said in interviews that when it came down to choosing a national leader, they wanted Mr. Modi.

“The Modi factor seems to be the No. 1 factor in the election,’’ said Josukutty Cheriantharayil Abraham, a political scientist at the University of Kerala.

One reason is how Mr. Modi makes voters feel. He has insisted on a bigger role for India in the world, and it speaks to the desire of many here for a stronger national image.

“Modi is not shy in taking decisions in the national interest,” said Ajit Kumar, a former Indian ambassador.

In February, Mr. Modi nearly went to war with Pakistan, which proved to be a huge boost as the election drew near. The next month, he announced with great fanfare that India now had the capability to shoot down satellites hurtling through space, which only a few countries can do.

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How Modi Tried to Use a Religious Crisis to Win Votes

Our reporter Jeffrey Gettleman traveled to Kerala to see how Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to use a controversy at one of India’s holiest shrines to win another five-year term.

I’m trying to get to Sabarimala Temple, one of India’s holiest Hindu shrines. “You’re going to Sabarimala?” “We’re going to the top.” But it’s not easy. “We go talk to him?” “That man.” “O.K. Let’s go.” There are police everywhere. “Hello, sir.” They seem to be on high alert. “Times?” “New York Times.” “American. American.” “’New York Times. The New York Times, over.” “Thanks for your help, yeah?” “Thank you, sir.” In the end, I get through, and I walk among thousands of pilgrims who are here to worship the god Ayyappa. “Oh, cool. There it is. There it is. This is it. It’s like a whole little town here.” One group I don’t see? Women, between the ages of 10 and 50. The devout believe Ayyappa is a celibate god and those women could tempt him. But I do meet the vigilantes who are here to stop any young women from entering. “Right here, what are you looking for?” “Right here, we’ll be asking: How old are you?” Traditionally, women of childbearing age have been banned from coming here. But last year, the Indian Supreme Court said it was illegal to block them. The decision erupted into a religious crisis that lasted for months. [chanting] The devout were furious. They said it was an assault on their religion. And the political right wing seized an opportunity. They rushed in, calling themselves the defenders of tradition, and helped fuel violent protests. So, I came here to feel the reverberations. How much can a controversy over one temple shape politics in the world’s largest democracy? I’m Jeffrey Gettleman. It’s election time, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely win another five-year term. [cheering and applause] This is the first time I’ve actually seen Modi in person. And wow, to rouse his base, he knows exactly what to say and how to say it. He’s trying to leverage the controversy over Sabarimala Temple into votes for his party, the B.J.P. Reporter: “Hello, ma’am. So, you like Modi?” “Yeah, definitely.” “Why?” “I think —” Reporter: “Some people say B.J.P. divides India between Hindus and Muslims. What do you say?” Reporter: “Even the Muslims?” “Yeah.” Reporter: “So, you think of it as Hindus or Indians?” Among many Modi supporters, this is a core belief, that India is a Hindu nation, despite the fact that people of many religions live here. And I wonder what this means for minorities, and for the future of this democracy. See, since Modi came to power five years ago, hate crimes against Muslims have shot up. Lynch mobs have killed dozens of people suspected of slaughtering cows, which are sacred to Hindus. To be clear, Modi doesn’t encourage the violence, but critics say he hasn’t forcefully condemned it, either. Now, his party is riding this wave of Hindu nationalism into the most secular parts of the country. That’s another reason why I came here, to Kerala. It’s a progressive state. Modi’s party has never won a single Parliament seat from here. This is the party that hold the most seats in Kerala, the Indian National Congress. It stands for a pluralist, secular India. So this is the last place I’d expect the Hindu right to succeed. But the state has turned into a real battleground, all because of Sabarimala. Not far from the temple, I meet up with K. Surendran on the campaign trail. He’s a B.J.P. candidate for Parliament, and he was one of the thousands arrested for rioting at Sabarimala and physically blocking women from entering. It made him a hero of the Hindu right. It’s impressive to see him work the crowd. He doesn’t even have to say much. [singing] People here know exactly where he stands on Sabarimala, and that’s what matters. Modi’s party has another advantage — a strong ground game. These men are volunteers with the R.S.S. — The hardline Hindu organization known for churning out leaders. They’re basically Modi’s foot soldiers. There are thousands of branches like this one. Modi, himself, actually rose up through their ranks. Hari Mohan joined this group when he was 9, and now he helps recruit some of the younger guys. As soon as their workout ends, he and his R.S.S. friends fan out to door-knock for Modi and the B.J.P. What’s interesting is Hari doesn’t talk about jobs, farms or the broader economy — Modi isn’t doing so well on those. Instead, Sabarimala Temple is really the issue. I realize that for most people here, even women, the controversy isn’t about gender equality. It’s about traditions, and who will protect them at all costs. India is a deeply religious country. India is also a secular democracy. These two things are becoming harder to square as religion, and one religion in particular, comes to dominate politics. This moment feels like a battle over very different visions for India’s future. And what happens here in Kerala could predict the direction of the entire country.

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Our reporter Jeffrey Gettleman traveled to Kerala to see how Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to use a controversy at one of India’s holiest shrines to win another five-year term.

Voters across different demographic groups are responding, too.

One of them, Rohita Dwivedi, a marketing professor in Mumbai, talked about how she felt that one of India’s biggest problems was an inferiority complex. Citing Mr. Modi’s vision, and his success in delivering on promises to help the poor and fight corruption, she said, “As an Indian, I am finally proud.”

Politicians are products of their time. In many different societies, globalization is unsettling people, creating a craving for a return to a simpler and more glorious past. Add to that social media, which enables people to filter out what they don’t want to hear. The result, analysts say, is a new generation of strongmen.

Part of the their success lies in an ability to speak to voters directly, bypassing the press or other moderating filters that might spotlight problems.

Mr. Erdogan, for example, makes several big speeches on a daily basis that are carried by friendly broadcasters straight into homes, sidewalk cafes and offices, making them virtually inescapable. President Trump is known for his late-night tweets. At 60 million followers, he is the world’s most followed elected official in office.

Right behind him? Mr. Modi, at 47 million followers.

Democracies are technically built to keep out autocrats. And like the United States, India is equipped with historically independent institutions, such as its Supreme Court and its press.

But Mr. Modi is not India’s first leader to push the boundaries. Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister and Rahul Gandhi’s great-grandfather, developed a cult of personality and ruled virtually unchallenged for 17 years.

Then, in the 1970s, his daughter, Indira Gandhi, a prime minister from the Congress Party, declared a state of emergency and jailed political opponents and censored the press.

An opposition party that included precursors to today’s B.J.P. won the next elections, in part because of anger over Mrs. Gandhi’s autocratic impulses.

Kai Schultz and Hari Kumar contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: India’s Voters Seem Poised to Reward Modi’s Populist Approach. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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