Imlisanen Jamir
A good exit poll always surprises and most polls following the Lok Sabha elections which concluded on May 19 did surprise.
If they are to be believed, the BJP-led NDA will return to power, with the Congress-led UPA expected to fall far short of numbers to reach the half-way mark—a tremendous win for the ruling dispensation.
As shocking as the huge landslide victory for Narendra Modi might be, it is not wise to discount it. While the exit polls are an outlier, remember that an outlier need not be wrong.
Throughout this election, despite the claims that this was a landmark moment for Indian politics, there was a creeping feeling that this was a completely one-way race. What worked for Narendra Modi was himself, the money, the media and the electoral machine of the BJP on overdrive. On the other hand, in the case of the opposition, there was neither a message nor a credible messenger.
What we have witnessed this election is a complete dominance of the Modi government on the narrative, supported of course by the media which has been very partisan. It was a narrative built around construed notions of strength, fear and nationalism.
Secondly, the recent poll has also shown that in the case of the opposition, they were tried and found wanting. Despite the rhetoric, they did not provide any serious opposition at all and what was the message again? ‘NYAY’ came much in too late, and by the time anyone could even being to figure out what it meant, the time to vote was too near.
Also, the BJP had a will to power and while the opposition had personal ambitions clashing with each other; the latter scenario also adversely affecting those disjointed efforts to stitch together opposition alliances. It’s safe to say that the BJP had a clear roadmap (as questionable as that roadmap is), while the opposition was completely clueless.
What we are witnessing is the possibility of rewriting the rules of the game. And if there is anything to read from this, it is that there is an urgent need for an alternative—an alternative opposition that delivers an alternative narrative.
In this context, when there is such a lopsided race (again if the exit polls are proven to be true), it is important not to fall into narrative traps. It would be folly to retrospectively start reading intentions from consequences—thoughts like ‘because Modi won, his government must have been great; because he won, whatever he did was correct.’ That is the type of reading of the situation that we need to be cautious of.
Comments can be sent to imlisanenjamir@gmail.com
