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On Politics With Lisa Lerer

Did Anti-Abortion Activists Overreach in Alabama?

The Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the only abortion clinic in Mississippi.Credit...Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.

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We’re only five months into 2019, but already it’s been a banner year for the anti-abortion movement.

Eight states have passed abortion restrictions, with the hope that one of them could lead to a legal challenge of Roe v. Wade. False claims of “infanticide” have Democrats on the defensive. And last week, the movement claimed its biggest victory yet: passage of a near-total abortion ban in Alabama.

But could the biggest “win” for anti-abortion activists in years actually be a political misstep?

That’s the fear being raised by some Republicans, who worry that the Alabama law reaches beyond what voters — or the Supreme Court — support. There’s a certain irony to the situation: President Trump’s support of the anti-abortion movement emboldened activists; now, the president and his allies are concerned those activists’ bold moves could cost the party.

Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House minority Leader, said the Alabama law “goes further than I believe.” Ronna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, described it as against her “personal belief.”

The split within the party revolves around one major issue: the lack of exceptions for cases when the pregnancy is caused by rape or incest.

Even Mr. Trump has publicly distanced himself. On Saturday, he tweeted, “As most people know, and for those who would like to know, I am strongly Pro-Life, with the three exceptions - Rape, Incest and protecting the Life of the mother - the same position taken by Ronald Reagan.”

Measuring views on abortion is notoriously difficult because so much of how people respond depends on how pollsters ask the question. But one thing polls have consistently shown is that most people do not favor laws as strict as the Alabama measure. A Gallup poll conducted last June found that a majority of Americans think abortion should be legal up until the third trimester if the pregnancy was caused by rape or incest.

Already, Democrats are trying to leverage the Alabama law into something that will not only motivate their voters but give them ammunition against the aggressive — and fairly successful — labeling of their party as extremist on abortion.

Meanwhile, The Times’s Supreme Court reporter, Adam Liptak, writes that the court seems unlikely to even take up the Alabama law because it would force the justices into a direct confrontation with Roe, dashing the very reason many activists began pushing for these new state-level restrictions in the first place.

We don’t know exactly how voters will respond to this fight, especially with the presidential election still far off. State-level gains may energize conservative voters, driving them to the polls in great numbers for Mr. Trump. But for now, top Republicans fear they could take a hit with independent voters — particularly women in suburban swing districts, who are likely to play a key role in the race — without any real gain in the courts.

Whether that kind of political calculation matters to an energized anti-abortion movement is a whole different question.

Take what one activist told my colleague this weekend: “The advice of lawyers is of less concern than it ever has been in the pro-life movement right now,” said Samuel Lee, a longtime lobbyist for anti-abortion legislation in Missouri. “They don’t care. Social movements sometimes take on a life of their own.”

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Kentucky is voting in primary elections on Tuesday, with one statewide race in particular attracting some attention. Our colleague Maggie Astor sent us this primer.

So what is this election?

Voters in Kentucky will choose their nominees for several statewide offices, including secretary of state and attorney general. But the biggest race is the Democratic primary for governor.

Who’s running in that race?

There are four candidates: State Representative Rocky Adkins; the state attorney general, Andy Beshear; Adam Edelen, a former state auditor; and Geoff Young, an activist and perennial political candidate.

Mr. Beshear is the best known — his father, Steve Beshear, was a popular governor from 2007 to 2015 — but Mr. Edelen has liberals pretty revved up. He’s been campaigning mostly in Kentucky’s left-leaning cities, Louisville and Lexington, while Mr. Beshear and Mr. Adkins are focusing on rural areas.

And what happens after Tuesday?

Whoever wins is expected to take on Gov. Matt Bevin, a Republican with the dubious distinction of being the least popular governor in the country. (He will actually face three of his own primary challengers on Tuesday, but despite his abysmal approval ratings, polls show him winning the primary easily.) Democrats think they can capitalize to retake the governorship of a very red state.

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The Environmental Protection Agency has a plan to wipe thousands of pollution-related deaths from the books by changing the way it calculates risk. Many experts said the approach was not scientifically sound.

Rihanna will become the first black woman in charge of a major luxury fashion house in Paris. She gave T magazine an exclusive first look at her new line.

Washingtonian magazine takes us inside the posh world of D.C.’s V.I.P. diners, who can nab a seat at the most exclusive restaurants with just a text message.

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The 2020 Democrats are not happy about “Game of Thrones.” (Don’t read this if you’re not caught up!)

For years, politicians have fawned over Daenerys Targaryen, seemingly the only non-awful leader in the Seven Kingdoms. But with the Khaleesi’s transformation to villain in the show’s final episodes, they’re having to walk back their praise.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, who had written an op-ed cheering the Mother of Dragons, had a change of heart before Sunday night’s finale. “I’m so blue about Daenerys,” she told reporters. “I’m trying to figure out who is going to be on the Iron Throne, but it sure as heck can’t be Daenerys.”

In a Fox News town hall on Sunday, Mayor Pete Buttigieg said Daenerys had “made some highly questionable leadership decisions.”

But perhaps no one took it harder than Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. “I’m so pissed off,” she said about the character’s turn. “She’s somebody who made sure the lowest income, the least empowered, could have a voice,” she said, adding, “Why did the writers have to turn her into a mad queen?”

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