Analysts: Rift could attract factories

Analysts: Rift could attract factories

Thailand and Asean can benefit from the US-China trade war in the mid to long term, say academics and tech analysts who believe Thailand presents an attractive site for factory relocation from China.

"The trade war is intense and will drive multinational firms with a manufacturing base in China to relocate to avoid higher tariffs," said Suthikorn Kingkaew, director of Thammasat Consulting Networking and Coaching Centre.

He believes Thailand's location offers a geographical advantage and can be used as a distribution centre for countries in Indochina.

Mr Suthikorn said Vietnam is also luring investment from China thanks to its lower minimum wage of only 220 baht a day, compared with 308-325 baht in Thailand.

Mr Suthikorn said the US has reason to increase tariffs on Chinese goods as the Chinese government is believed to have manipulated the yuan, keeping the rate low to gain from exports.

He likened this trade war to the 1980s when the US and Japan tussled over Japan's big trade surplus with the US. Japan ultimately increased its currency rate, forcing a number of Japanese companies to relocate factories, with several setting up in Asean, said Mr Suthikorn.

China has prepared by investing in several Asean countries over the past decade, including the massive One Belt One Road infrastructure project to connect China with Asean, he said.

Several factories in China are interesting in moving and exporting from plants in Thailand, said Mr Suthikorn.

"Companies in big cities that bear higher labour costs, such as those in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Hangzhou, may need to relocate," he said.

He said if the technology dispute between the two giants is not settled, Huawei may be forced to use its new operating system, HongMeng.

Global smartphone shipments totalled around 1.6 billion units, 60-70% of which are supported by Google's Android, with Apple's iOS making up much of the remainder.

Weeradej Panichwisai, research manager of IDC Thailand, said Thailand can exploit the trade war by competing with Vietnam as a production base for electronics components.

Kulthirath Pakawachkrilers, chief executive at TeC Thailand, which conducts business matching for China and Thailand, said several manufacturers in China have decided to relocate their plants to Vietnam and Thailand as joint ventures. For example, GoerTek, the maker of Apple's AirPods, has relocated plants to Vietnam, while some Chinese electronics suppliers have partnered with SVI, an electronics manufacturing solution in Thailand.

"The tariff measure sent a strong message to Chinese companies, as several manufacturers have relocated overseas as orders from the US are still coming in," Ms Kulthirath said.

She said ongoing political instability could be a disadvantage for Thailand, turning investors to Vietnam.

"TeC has received many requests from Chinese investors to help find land and opportunities for investment here worth 693 million baht. Yet some are still waiting on political stability," said Ms Kulthirath.

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