Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first term in office was characterised by a tug of war between a politically centralising government in New Delhi and independent-minded State parties across the nation. Now, given that the results of the election point only one way, it is likely that his second term will witness the proliferation of hegemonic Hindutva politics in north, central and eastern India, juxtaposed with a more liberal-pluralist ethos in the south.
Changed political landscape
First, let us look at how this election has reshaped the political landscape of ‘standout’ States, the ones led by strong regional leaders/ parties that appeared to offer a considerable resistance to the 2014-19 “Moditva” doctrine.
One of the biggest stories of this election is how the BJP made deep inroads into West Bengal, capitalising neatly on the collapse of the Left Front. While Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress continues to hold an edge in 21 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP has surged ahead in 18 seats. This remarkable entry into a State that was a bastion of Left politics for more than three decades has come on the back of several factors: the deepening salience of majoritarian politics at the grass-roots level driven adroitly by the RSS and the VHP; the growing use of money to lubricate the wheels of local politics towards a Hindutva narrative, including influence exerted upon temples and during religious festivals; and a purposeful economic outreach programme by these organisations that sought to bring Dalit and Adivasi communities within the Hindutva fold. This quiet saffron ‘revolution’ appears to have left the Trinamool playing catch-up and has been coterminous with the political decimation of the Left in West Bengal.
In Telangana, also led by a powerful regional satrap, the BJP is on track to considerably improve its tally, from one Lok Sabha seat to possibly five, out of 17. Contrarily, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi headed by Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao is facing the prospect of a major setback given that it secured a landslide victory in last December’s Assembly election. There are similarities as well as differences to the West Bengal case here. A parallel experience is that voters of the State appear to have expressed different political preferences across Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The difference is that the BJP’s victory here may have had less to do with grass-roots outreach and local politics than the sheer overwhelming popularity of the Hindutva world view and the projection of Mr. Modi as a uniquely qualified leader running a presidential-style national campaign.
With West Bengal and Telangana falling into the BJP’s lap, only three major States remain that are driven by strong regional aspirations, distinct ethnic and linguistic identities, and parties that are unapologetic about standing outside of the mainstream of Indian political discourse, howsoever that may be defined: Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
Kerala is the last hope for the Congress in the 2019 election, given that it has not won a landslide victory in any other State. In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front coalition has secured a strong lead in 19 of the 20 parliamentary constituencies.
Andhra Pradesh, which has had its share of charismatic regional leaders, looks to be a clean sweep for Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party. However, Mr. Reddy has made political overtures towards both the BJP and the Congress in the past, and it is unclear which way he might lean. What is clear is that for him the grant of special category status matters most and he will support the party that moves forward with that grant. It is unclear whether, if the BJP were to take this step, Mr. Reddy would remain outside its umbrella on any other grounds.
On the poorest footing
Tamil Nadu perhaps represents the one State where the BJP is on the poorest footing in terms of its politics lacking resonance with the broader populace. It faces the least prospects for making inroads through the campaigning methods it has deployed successfully elsewhere. The likely overwhelming victory of the DMK alliance will bring pause to the political expansion momentum of the BJP across most other States. The BJP’s prospects are weaker still for piggybacking on the AIADMK, a party that appears to be gradually imploding.
Even more, the DMK has, in this election, unambiguously claimed the mantle of the Dravidian movement that, at its peak, had a sharp anti-Hindu, anti-north India, anti-Hindi edge. Certainly, it has moderated to a more accommodative form today, but what the vote of the Tamil people shows is that they have chosen to step back from the headlong plunge into the saffronisation of Indian politics that so many other States seem to have signed up for.
With West Bengal and Telangana joining the bulk of the major States in their embrace of Hindutva, it is now only in the ‘deep south’ that the values of secularism and pluralism may truly find expression within the political mainstream.
narayan@thehindu.co.in
