Coalition parties took leads in less than a third of their Assembly segments

May 25, 2019 11:46 pm | Updated May 26, 2019 09:12 am IST - Bengaluru

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has lifted the BJP across Assembly segments in the State, but a pattern of dissidence and disconsonance among MLAs within the Congress-JD(S) alliance is seen in the Assembly-segment voting patterns.

BJP’s historic performance has seen them take leads in 170 Assembly constituencies (or nearly 80% of Assembly segments in 27 parliamentary constituencies they contested in), while the Congress-JD(S) alliance secured leads only in 47 Assembly seats. Independent candidate Sumalatha secured leads in seven out of eight seats in Mandya.

A look at the Assembly-wise performance points to the contrast in campaigns of the BJP and the alliance. Of the 104 Assembly constituencies won by BJP in 2018, they secured leads in 92% of seats and even managed an additional 10 lakh votes for their parliamentary poll candidates. This indicates that a well-oiled, unified electoral machine capitalised on the popularity of the party and PM Modi here. For the BJP, their biggest lead was in Belagavi south where it secured a 89,663 vote lead, while their largest margin conceded to the alliance candidate was just 19,900 votes in Hassan city against the formidable JD(S) machinery there.

Dissidence during campaigning has had no impact in the case of the BJP. In Hukkeri (Belagavi LS), where BJP MLA Umesh Katti’s brother Ramesh Katti was denied a ticket, BJP secured a lead of over 30,000 while the Congress only marginally improved their votes compared to 2014. Vijayapura where BJP leader Basanagouda Yatnal had objected to the selection of Union Minister Ramesh Jigajinagi as candidate, or in Bengaluru south, where murmurs of discontent rose over the selection of Tejasvi Surya, did not damage their prospects.

In sharp contrast is the seats with INC-JD(S) MLAs where the alliance managed to secure leads in less than a third of their 117 Assembly seats. Alliance candidates shed over 48 lakh votes compared to their performance in 2018, and primarily in seats where their alliance partner is stronger (see graphic) .

In Gokak (Belagavi Lok Sabha constituency), where Congress MLA Ramesh Jarkiholi vocally threatened to leave the alliance, BJP led by over 60,000 votes, while the Congress shed half its votes it had in the 2018 polls. Others who had first raised the banner of revolt include Athani (Belagavi) MLA Mahesh Kumathalli (Congress lost 20,000 votes here) and Kudligi (Ballari constituency) MLA B. Nagendra (BJP lead by 22,000 votes here).

In Chikkaballapur, where Congress MLA K. Sudhakar had called the alliance unholy, BJP’s votes shot up by 17 times to take a lead of over 35,000. In Chamundeshwari, which saw alliance clashes in the open in a continued rivalry between JD(S) Minister G.T. Devegowda and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, JD(S)’s 1 lakh votes shifted to the BJP.

In Mandya and Chitradurga, where Congress or JD(S) leaders were open in their defiance, the alliance candidate lost a significant number of votes. These figures are in sharp contrast to places where MLAs actively worked for their candidate. The alliance gained their biggest lead in Kanakapura, the home of Congress strongman D.K. Shivakumar, who campaigned intensely for his brother D.K. Suresh. In this seat alone, the Congress got more than 77% of the votes cast and secured a lead of over 1.1 lakh votes.

Similarly, amidst the 3.5 lakh vote loss for the Congress in Bengaluru south, the constituencies of Ramalinga Reddy (BTM Layout) and his daughter Soumya (Jayanagar), who helmed the Congress campaign, threw up the smallest margin of defeat.

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