View: As US haste to withdraw becomes obvious, there is surge in violence in Afghanistan

BY-AVINASH MOHANANEY
Former IB Officer, who served in Pakistan and Kashmir

Afghanistan is living up to its reputation of being a graveyard of empires. First, it was the British, then the Soviet Union and now the US. The tribes inhabiting Afghanistan despise foreign rule. As the US haste to withdraw becomes obvious, there is a surge in violence.

According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, 2018 was the bloodiest year in terms of civilian casualties as 3,804 people lost their lives –– an 11% increase in civilian deaths compared to 2017. The figures include 24% casualties as “collateral” damage in the operations led by the Afghan national security forces and their international backers.

The report raises serious concern for all countries in the region, including India, that 20% of the violence was perpetrated by Islamic State –– Khorasan Province (Daesh).

This is a 118% increase over the previous year. This year, the situation seems to be no different.

The Taliban refuses to de-escalate. They continue with their policy of using violence as a leveraging tool for negotiations –– a trick they must have learnt from Pakistan. They have not budged from their demand of complete withdrawal of US troops. At the meeting at Doha, Qatar, on July 7-8, with the Afghan government representatives attending in their “personal” capacity, Taliban agreed to minimise civilian casualties to zero.

The Taliban version of the statement has references to withdrawal of foreign troops. How much comfort can the US and Afghan government draw from these talks? It can be gauged from the statement issued by the Taliban just two days later (July 10), reiterating its commitment to jehad as a means to throw out foreign occupiers in Afghanistan.

The US continues to find it difficult to get a commitment from the Taliban without crucial international support, particularly from Pakistan.

After holding another round of talks with the Taliban at Doha on July 9, Zalmay Khalilzad, US Special Representative, reached Beijing on July 10 to brief diplomats of Russia, China and Pakistan. He was successful in getting a commitment from all, more importantly Pakistan, that violence has to be brought down and the Taliban has to engage with the Afghan government representatives.

Much to the chagrin of India, Pakistan has again emerged as a key player for the US in bringing around Taliban to work out a deal. As the talks continue, the rewards for Pakistan are trickling in. Soon after the talks, Gen Mark Milley, President Trump’s nominee to head the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate hearing that “If confirmed as chairman, my objective will be to preserve the defence relationship between the US and Pakistan even as we press Pakistan to take action on US requests”. Earlier, Pakistan got the approval of $6 billion International Monetary Fund loan on July 3 with $1 billion released immediately to shore up its economy.

India’s interests among Afghans could only be protected, if in the final settlement, Taliban is asked to prove its popularity in the elections. But, in case the US strikes a Faustian bargain with the Taliban in its hurry to leave, then there would not be much difference in what Taliban did in the ‘90s and what they would be doing now.

Apart from suffering casualties and economically, the US’ prestige is badly hurt. It had to beg the same Taliban, who were once declared as terrorists. It is time for the US to gradually withdraw and let Afghans decide their future. The process has to be Afghan led and Afghan owned keeping in mind the democratic aspirations of the people there. India would gain in the long term – that’s what matters finally.