Resumption of Indo-Pak dialogue a far cry despite recent developments

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) verdict on Wednesday preceded by Pakistan’s softening of approach on Kartarpur corridor besides opening of airspace after a gap of five months and crackdown on LeT founder Hafiz Saeed could help reduce tensions between Delhi and Islamabad which has been on the boil since the February 14 Pulwama terror attack. However, the Indian establishment, it seems, is not keen to resume dialogue with its neighbor in the near future.
Indo-Pak ties have remained lukewarm -- or perhaps frozen -- since Pathankot and Uri terror strikes in 2016 with India launching a concerted campaign to isolate Pakistan’s terror infrastructure and masterminds. The Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) decision to re-induct Pakistan into the Grey List and the support that India got from Pakistan’s traditional friends in the Gulf were a reflection of the sincerity of India’s case. Two cross-border strikes by the Indian military in 2016 and 2019 against terror infrastructure created a new normal in Indo-Pak ties.

The return of Narendra Modi to power did not alter Delhi’s approach as the PM stayed away from any dialogue with his Pakistani counterpart Imran Khan at the SCO Summit except for exchanging pleasantries. India’s red line has been that terror and talks cannot go together and Islamabad has not taken any concrete measure, other than some cosmetic steps, to address the concerns, said an official who did not wish to be identified. SGPC has invited Modi for the November 12 event of the opening of Kartarpur corridor which might also see the presence of Khan, but a meeting of the two still seems like “a far cry”, the official said.

There have been plenty of atmospherics through Track II dialogues in various capitals in South and SE Asia and the USA may nudge India for talks with Pakistan as they plan to withdraw troops by this September. However, this may not impress Delhi to launch a peace process with Islamabad in the near future, given the past experience, including January 2016 incident when an air base in Pathankot was attacked within a week of Modi’s Lahore trip.

It may be recalled that Modi did not show interest to launch any kind of dialogue with Khan despite the latter’s appeal after the election results on May 23. Also, BIMSTEC leaders were invited for the PM’s swearing-in ceremony but the Pakistani PM wasn’t.

Further Sino-Pak ties, including China Pakistan Economic Corridor, remains a challenge with the corridor passing through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Chinese penetration in Pakistan and its increasing presence in Gwadar remains a sticking point in Indo-Pak relations.