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Kenya

Kenya: Drought Emergency Plan of Action Operation - n° MDRKE044 update No: 1

Attachments

Summary of major revisions made to emergency plan of action:

March 2019: The Short Rains Assessment report released in March indicates a worsening food security situation, with some counties having moved to a Crisis phase (IPC3) and IFRC launches a Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) operation, to support 10,000 families with a one-off cash transfer.

April 2019: IFRC launches an Emergency Appeal, expanding the scope of the operation in terms of areas of intervention and people to be assisted.

May 2019: KRCS continued to monitor the drought situation through joint rapid assessments, in areas showing worsening situation of the drought as well as disbursement of Cash transfers to the supported community members.

June 2019: Post Distribution Monitoring of the Cash Transfers and continued monitoring of the drought situation and reported on the drought update one.

A. SITUATION ANALYSIS

Description of the disaster

In 2018, a short rainfall season across much of Kenya, which stemmed from below average rainfall from October to December, resulted in large-scale crop failure, low pasture regeneration and water scarcity, which considerably deteriorated the food security situation. However, the effects of this hazard continue to be felt by vulnerable communities.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) bulletins for January 2019 indicate that 16 counties (West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi, Samburu, Nyeri (Kieni), Marsabit, Mandera, Lamu, Laikipia, Kitui, Kilifi, Isiolo, Garissa, Embu, Baringo, Turkana and Wajir) are currently experiencing increasing food insecurity (IPC21) with the situation expected to worsen as a result of the ongoing effects of the drought. Wajir County is the worst affected in the country with Turkana,
Marsabit, Baringo, Samburu and Garissa also experiencing significant deterioration in the food security situation. Some communities in these affected counties are already in IPC 3 with the situation projected to further deteriorate. This Emergency Appeal is primarily informed by the 2019 Short Rains Assessment (SRA) (published in March 2019) https://www.ndma.go.ke/index.php/tutorials/short-rains-assessments which indicated that a total of 1,111,500 people are currently food insecure and require immediate food assistance in order to avoid people resorting to negative coping strategies.. This includes 843,900 people in IPC 3 and a further 267,600 people in IPC 2.

Real time observations showed that rains in the 2018 season had a late onset and early cessation, with long dry spells experienced in many places. Overall, many parts of the country including Arid and Semi-Arid lands (ASAL) recorded below average rainfall with the exception of counties such as Makueni, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere) and Laikipia, which received near normal rainfall. Counties in Western, South Eastern and Coastal regions of Kenya received average rainfall. This resulted in overall unfavourable conditions for rain-fed agriculture, surface and ground water storage recharge and pasture regeneration.

Cessation of the short rains, which were generally below-average in many areas, resulted in a warning of a decline in food, water and pasture in a number of counties. Pasture conditions have continued to deteriorate in most pastoral livelihood zones with the worst cases reported in Turkana, Baringo, Tana River and Wajir, where pastoral livelihood zones are at Alert to Alarm phase according to the five stages of drought, indicating a worsening situation. Diminished forage resources have triggered migration and concentration of livestock to dry season grazing areas. Diminishing resources increases competition for the resources, which is a major trigger of resource-based conflicts if not managed early enough.

The nutrition situation remains critical (Phase 4; GAM WHZ 15.0 - 29.9 percent) in Turkana, Samburu and Mandera counties as well as East Pokot and North Horr sub-counties while the nutrition situation in Wajir, Tana River, West Pokot, Garissa and Laisamis counties are at serious level (Phase 3; GAM WHZ 10.0 -14.9 percent). An estimated 541,309 people (including children under 5 and pregnant and lactating mothers) require treatment for malnutrition. This is due to an observed increase in severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseloads which rose from 85,105 cases to 113,941 cases in the above counties.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) prediction for March, April, and May indicated that counties that are worst affected by the current drought and food insecurity would be expected to receive depressed rainfall. These include parts of Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, Tana River and Wajir counties. KMD assessment of the rainfall recorded from 1st March to 30th May 2019 indicates that the rainfall performance was generally poor over most parts of the country. Several meteorological stations in the country recorded rainfall that was less than 50 percent of their seasonal Long-Term Means (LTMs) for MAM season. The seasonal rainfall was characterized by late onset and poor temporal and spatial distribution. Much of Kenya has experienced mainly hot and dry conditions in March and April 2019 with most areas reporting below average rainfall according to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). March to April 2019 was amongst the driest period in some parts of the country since 1981. This is despite heavy rainfall being reported in some parts of the country within the last week of April. Parts of the Coast, South- Eastern and Northern were worst hit receiving rainfall that was well below the normal LTM. Most parts of the Coast have been receiving moderate to heavy rainfall from mid-May. However, the totals are still below what is normally received in the month of May except a few parts of Kilifi County which surpassed the normal. The most depressed rainfall has been recorded over Northwestern (Samburu, Turkana), North-eastern (Wajir, Garissa, Mandera) and South-eastern (Machakos, Kitui, Makueni).
The KMD outlook for June-July August (JJA) indicates that the Western highlands, the Lake Victoria Basin, parts of central Rift Valley (Nakuru, Nyahururu) are likely to receive normal rainfall with a tendency to above normal (enhanced rainfall) while the Coastal strip is likely to experience depressed rainfall. The rest of the country is expected to remain generally dry.

Since most ASAL regions of the country are already under food security stress, the poor rainfall performance will not result in full recovery in most of these areas, resulting in a prolonged food insecurity that is likely to persist through to September 2019. KRCS therefore proposed to carry out cash and food interventions during this period. According to the April food security outlook issued by FEWSNET, current stressed (IPC2) outcomes are expected to be sustained through to June with significant declines in food security expected to occur from July through September, with an early start to the lean season occurring in June. FEWSNET further predicts low crop yields due to delayed and reduced rainfall resulting in increased food prices with poor households likely to be worst affected by food shortage. The June September 2019 FEWSNET food security outlook further warns of increased food stress in pastoral zones caused by below-average terms of trade and reduced household income during the July-September dry season, coupled with heightened resource-based conflict. Tana River, Garissa, Mandera, Isiolo, Baringo, Samburu, Wajir, Marsabit, and Mandera are predicted to be pushed into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in August