In Karnataka, drought is deeply connected to agriculture -- measured with a delay in the Kharif crop that starts from June. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the state has received 350.3 mm rainfall, against the actual of 403.8 mm expected.
This means a 27 per cent deficit, with 70 per cent of the state covered by rainfall so far. It is not all that bad, still, we’ll have to wait till August 31 to get the real picture. Yet, it is a settled habit of the mind that Kharif too starts from June 1, when rainfall starts, and any skewing of that pattern upsets expectations. But if we do not keep the onset of monsoon as June first week, then there is no rainfall problem.
Now the Indian government’s geology department is thinking seriously about whether it is right to say that the onset of monsoon is to be marked from June 1. According to IMD data from the last 10 years, the onset of monsoon has been on time only for three years. So they are seriously mulling whether to postpone the date of the monsoon itself -- at least in relation to the traditional June 1 calendar.
Having said that, there is no doubt about weather patterns changing in other ways too, especially in terms of aerial distribution. Some regions experience very good rainfall and next year it is very scanty. Surprisingly in Karnataka, the so-called rainfall-endowed Malnad and coastal areas have been facing scarcity this year. Kodagu, Dakshin Kannada, and Udupi districts have seen highest scarcity as on date.
Last year, the pre-monsoon was good in south Karnataka, before that the pre-monsoon was good in Hyderabad Karnataka. So there is a change in the pattern of distribution of the South West monsoon. There has been a change in the wind patterns also. According to a study by Madhura Swaminathan and his team, there is a significant shift in the rainfall pattern and other weather parameters including moisture, heat exposure days and temperatures.
This year, south interior parts of the state are witnessing a 15 per cent deficit in rainfall. The figure for Malnad is 37 per cent while it is a surprising 47 per cent for Kodagu. These statistics continue, Dakshin Kannada is seeing a 50 per cent deficit while Bidar has a 52 per cent deficit in rainfall. Kolar and Bengaluru rural have received some excess rainfall but not by much. Just as far back as last year, the numbers told a different story. Malnad had received 48% higher rainfall compared to normal while we remember the Kodagu floods that caused so much damage.
Politically for Karnataka, it is the Cauvery basin that decides if the state has received good rainfall. The KRS is the most closely watched reservoir. But I believe the Western Ghats are the lifeline and the benchmark, not only for the state but for India.
To tackle the problem, we must introspect. On climate change as well as plans and innovations not linked to the normal calendar for rainfall. If there is a delay in the monsoon, there must be alternative plans, currently unavailable with the government, the industry and the market.
But, it is easy to blame the weather gods rather than introspect. There has been a drought since the past 4-5 years, but we are still not ready with plans. Next year, there could be early monsoon showers but we are not prepared to tackle it.