There was not a singular ah-ha moment for Broncos general manager John Elway and his personnel staff as the 2017 season fell apart with an eight-game losing streak.
There didn’t need to be.
It was all right in front of Elway each Sunday as he and director of player personnel Matt Russell watched from their stadium suite and every Monday when they reviewed the wreckage on video.
Just two years removed from a Super Bowl title, the Broncos’ draft model was fractured and needed to be fixed.
“We looked exactly at where we’ve been and what had been going on,” Elway said during an interview with The Denver Post last month.
Where the Broncos had been: A perennial playoff team who previously hit on early-round talents like outside linebacker Von Miller (round 1, 2011) and Derek Wolfe (round 2, 2012). Just as importantly, they found mid-to-late-round gems such as tight end Julius Thomas (fourth round, 2011), defensive lineman Malik Jackson (fifth round, 2012), linebacker Danny Trevathan (sixth round, 2012) and center Matt Paradis (sixth round, 2014).
What the Broncos had going on: Minimal contributions from the drafts in 2013-14.
Thus, the course change entering the 2018 draft.
The new emphasis was on prospects with more experience and therefore viewed to be more prepared to face adversity, learn quickly and make an instant impact.
The average college games played by the eight-man 2017 class was 40.8. Two played at least 50 games.
The average of the 10-man 2018 class was 47 games (five of at least 50 games) and this year’s six-man draft class averaged 44.2 college games (three of at least 50 games).
In the 2013-15 drafts, only four players appeared in at least 50 college games.
Elway believes college playing experience fortifies a prospect’s resolve.
“Character is a big thing, but then again, you’re not going to be perfect when it comes down to that,” he said. “I think the two years (2015-16) showed us we needed to find more character guys.”
When the Broncos open the season at Oakland, 12 of the 16 players selected in the last two drafts could be active. That includes outside linebacker Bradley Chubb, receiver Courtland Sutton, inside linebacker Josey Jewell, tight end Noah Fant and left guard Dalton Risner. Quarterback Drew Lock is injured.
Of this year’s class, led by Fant and Risner, Elway said: “Everybody knows it’s a big step up to the regular season from the preseason. How they’ll adjust, we’ll have to wait and see. So far, I like what they’re doing.”
It is critical for the Broncos’ current and future success that their 2018-19 drafts work out. Players on rookie contracts who are productive mean less money is spent on free agents and less time is spent on scouring the waiver wire for reinforcements.
The flaming out of quarterback Paxton Lynch, the 2016 first-round pick, forced the Broncos to sign Case Keenum ($15 million salary cap hit) last year and trade for Joe Flacco ($18.5 million) this year. Those salaries prevented Elway from addressing other roster needs.
On the 90-man roster to start training camp, only three Broncos drafted from 2011-15 remained on the roster out of 38 selections: Miller, Wolfe and tight end Jeff Heuerman (third round, 2015).
Others, like Thomas, Jackson and Trevathan parlayed star turns into lucrative free-agent contracts elsewhere. That represents a nod to the Broncos’ personnel and coaching staffs.
But allowed to walk in free agency or cut were first-round picks from 2013-16 — defensive tackle Sylvester Williams, cornerback Bradley Roby, outside linebacker Shane Ray and, most notably, Lynch.
If the Broncos created draft momentum in 2018, it started when Chubb fell to them at fifth overall. Chubb and Sutton will be the lynchpins to that class, just as Fant, Risner and Lock will be for this year’s class. If they work out, the Broncos can allocate money toward second contracts for those players and toward filling other spots on the roster. If not, the churn will begin again.
ELWAY’S DRAFTS
A look at Broncos general manager John Elway’s drafts and how much college experience the player selected brought to the NFL:
2011
Round Player Position College College games
1 Von Miller OLB Texas A&M 47
2 Rahim Moore S UCLA 37*
2 Orlando Franklin OT Miami (Fla.) 51
3 Nate Irving LB North Carolina State 34
4 Quinton Carter DB Oklahoma 44
4 Julius Thomas TE Portland (Ore.) State 11
6 Mike Mohamed LB California 50
7 Virgil Green TE Nevada 50
7 Jeremy Beal DL Oklahoma 54
2012
Round Player Position College College games
2 Derek Wolfe DE Cincinnati 45
2 Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State 25 *
3 Ronnie Hillman RB San Diego State 26 *
4 Omar Bolden CB Arizona State 41
4 Philip Blake OL Baylor 38
5 Malik Jackson DT Tennessee 46
6 Danny Trevathan LB Kentucky 52
2013
Round Player Position College College games
1 Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina 45
2 Montee Ball RB Wisconsin 49
3 Kayvon Webster CB South Florida 49
5 Quanterus Smith DE W. Kentucky 46
5 Tavarres King WR Georgia 56
6 Vinston Painter G Virginia Tech 32
7 Zac Dysert QB Miami (Ohio) 46
2014
Round Player Position College College games
1 Bradley Roby CB Ohio State 37 *
2 Cody Latimer WR Indiana 32 *
3 Michael Schofield OT Michigan 52
5 Lamin Barrow LB LSU 51
6 Matt Paradis C Boise State 35
7 Corey Nelson LB Oklahoma 45
2015
Round Player Position College College games
1 Shane Ray OLB Missouri 40 *
2 Ty Sambrailo OT Colorado State 48
3 Jeff Heuerman TE Ohio State 51
4 Max Garcia G Florida 39
5 Lorenzo Doss CB Tulane 37 *
6 Darius Kilgo NT Maryland 42
7 Trevor Siemian QB Northwestern 44
7 Taurean Nixon DB Tulane 38
7 Josh Furman DB Oklahoma State 45
2016
Round Player Position College College games
1 Paxton Lynch QB Memphis 38 *
2 Adam Gotsis DE Georgia Tech 48
3 Justin Simmons S Boston College 50
4 Devontae Booker RB Utah 44
5 Connor McGovern C Missouri 49
6 Andy Janovich FB Nebraska 50
6 Will Parks S Arizona 53
7 Riley Dixon P Syracuse 39
2017
Round Player Position College College games
1 Garett Bolles LT Utah 34 *
2 DeMarcus Walker DE Florida State 52
3 Carlos Henderson WR Louisiana Tech 36 *
3 Brendan Langley CB Lamar 31 *
5 Jake Butt TE Michigan 49
5 Isaiah McKenzie WR Georgia 35 *
6 De’Angelo Henderson RB Coastal Carolina 50
7 Chad Kelly QB Mississippi 39
2018
Round Player Position College College games
1 Bradley Chubb OLB North Carolina State 49
2 Courtland Sutton WR SMU 39
3 Royce Freeman RB Oregon 51
3 Isaac Yiadom CB Boston College 48
4 Josey Jewell LB Iowa 50
4 DaeSean Hamilton WR Penn State 53
5 Troy Fumagalli TE Wisconsin 52
6 Sam Jones G/C Arizona State 32 *
6 Keishawn Bierria LB Washington 54
7 David Williams RB Arkansas 42
2019
Round Player Position College College games
1 Noah Fant TE Iowa 36 *
2 Dalton Risner G Kansas State 50
2 Drew Lock QB Missouri 50
3 Dre’Mont Jones DT Ohio State 39 *
5 Justin Hollins LB Oregon 52
6 Juwann Winfree WR Colorado 38
- – early entry
A look at the Broncos’ past two draft classes, where general manager John Elway went for players who had proven production in college.
2018 CLASS
Round Player Position
1 Bradley Chubb OLB
Goal: Match or exceed last year’s total of 12 sacks and thrive in new coach Vic Fangio’s system.
2 Courtland Sutton WR
Goal: Approach his 71-catch rookie total, but become a red zone threat (only four touchdowns in ’18).
3 Royce Freeman RB
Goal: Serve as the No. 1A tailback to Phillip Lindsay and improve his yards-per-carry average of 4.0.
3 Isaac Yiadom CB
Goal: Continue to show a physical style of play on special teams and if called upon as the No. 4 corner.
4 Josey Jewell ILB
Goal: Be a reliable, every-down player who is physical against the run and plays well in zone coverage.
4 DaeSean Hamilton WR
Goal: Whether he’s the Nos. 3 or 4 receiver, increase his per-catch average from 8.1 yards.
5 Troy Fumagalli TE
Goal: Out all of ’18, carry over his decent camp as a receiver to become a reliable third tight end.
6 Sam Jones G
Goal: On the 53-man roster all of last year, make the roster again this year.
6 Kieshawn Bierria ILB
Goal: Maintain his worth on special teams to make the roster. He was cut on Aug. 31, 2019.
7 David Williams RB
Goal: Catching on with another team; was waived in early August, for second time.
2019 CLASS
Round Player Position
1 Noah Fant TE
Goal: Be an all-round pass-catcher/blocker so defenses don’t know what’s coming when he’s in the game.
2 Dalton Risner LG
Goal: The starter since the first OTA, have a seamless transition from college right tackle to NFL left guard.
3 Drew Lock QB
Goal: Ideally, the Broncos’ plan is for Lock to not play as a rookie, instead learning from veteran Joe Flacco. Lock was placed on IR.
4 Dre’Mont Jones DE
Goal: A strong start to camp suggested he can be a rotational player in the base- and sub-defenses.
5 Justin Hollins OLB
Goal: If called upon, show his versatility by moving to inside linebacker in nickel situations.
6 Juwann Winfree WR
Goal: As the Nos. 5-6 receiver, prepare himself for a full-time role in 2020.
