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Withdrawal of the South-West monsoon from North-West India, which normally starts from September 1, is now expected to become orderly and established in a week’s time.
Until then, moist South-Easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal would ensure that most parts of East and Central India as well as North-West India and the West Coast would remain variously wet.
Fresh rain surge
In between, there is a possibility a fresh surge of rain would head in from the Bay and push in towards Central India before running into the withdrawing monsoon over Gujarat and Rajasthan.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service seems to broadly agree with the outlook but sees a blow-up of rains over the East Coast, including over the Tamil Nadu coast and later over Odisha.
For now, the monsoon is holding up strongly over parts of Central India, West India and the West Coast, backed by a low-pressure area over North Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South-West Uttar Pradesh.
On Wednesday, the monsoon trough passed through Ganganagar, Alwar, the centre of the ‘low,’ Ambikapur, Jamshedpur and Digha, before dipping into North-East Bay of Bengal.
A second trough runs from South Gujarat, ending up in a cyclonic circulation over Coastal Bengal, cutting across the ‘low’ and passing through North Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
These systems would bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls over Madhya Pradesh for at least the next three to four days. A similar forecast is valid for Odisha for the next three days and for the plains of Bengal and Gujarat until tomorrow (Thursday).
Above-normal rain
An extended forecast for three days from September 16 to 18 (Monday to Wednesday) sees the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over North-East India, and parts of East and Central India.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over the northern parts of the West Coast while it would be isolated to scattered over the rest of the country outside North-West India, where it would be isolated.
Cumulatively, above-normal rainfall is forecast over Gujarat, the West Coast, East Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and the plains of Bengal during the current week, ending tomorrow. It would be normal to below-normal for the rest of the country.
During the week that follows (September 12 to 18), above-normal rainfall is indicated for the hills of North-West India, and parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Above-normal rainfall is also likely over Central India, including over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, North Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. It would be normal to below normal over the rest of the country.
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