Preston Smith (91) and the Green Bay Packers will be looking to improve to 6-1 Sunday when they host ... [+]
The Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders are two of the NFL’s surprise teams in 2019.
When the year began, the Westgate in Las Vegas had Green Bay’s odds of winning the Super Bowl at 19-to-1. After a 5-1 start, the Packers’ odds are down to 14-to-1.
Oakland, which is off to a surprising 3-2 start, has seen its odds drop from 75-to-1 to 50-to-1.
The two teams meet Sunday at noon at Lambeau Field.
Here’s a look at each positional group and which team has the edge.
QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers lifted an undermanned team to victory Monday by rallying the Packers from a nine-point, fourth quarter deficit. Rodgers was patient, precise and didn't ask his reserve wideouts to do things they were incapable of. It was one of his better performances as a Packer.
Oakland’s Derek Carr completed a career-high 68.9% of his passes last year and has upped that to 73.3% this season. With a motley crew of weapons in the passing game, Carr also has a respectable quarterback rating of 96.7.
Since Oakland head coach Jon Gruden came aboard in 2018, it's been rumored he’d like to replace Carr. But Carr is athletic, tough, highly competitive and strong-armed, and will likely be the Raiders’ quarterback when they move to Las Vegas next season.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
RUNNING BACKS
Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs is off to a terrific start, ranking sixth in the league with 86.0 rushing yards per game. Jacobs is a three-down back with a prototypical combination of size (5-10, 220), skill and power.
According to Pro Football Focus, Jacobs ranks in the top-10 in broken tackles per rushing attempt (0.26) and yards after contact (3.6).
Green Bay has the luxury of riding the hot hand these days.
Two weeks ago, Aaron Jones was dominant with a four-touchdown day against Dallas. Last week, Jamaal Williams (14 carries, 104 yards) had his day in the sun.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
RECEIVERS
Green Bay’s Davante Adams will miss his third straight game with a turf toe injury. Geronimo Allison (concussion) was upgraded to questionable Saturday, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle/knee) is also questionable.
If Green Bay’s top three can’t go, no-names Allen Lazard, Jake Kumerow and Darrius Shepherd will be the top targets. Collectively, that group has 16 career catches.
“It is what it is and it’s next man up and like we’ve said all along, it’s not like the standard is going to change,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “So, those guys got to get their mind right and be ready to play ball.”
Oakland’s No. 1 weapon in the passing game has been tight end Darren Waller, who already has 37 receptions this year. Waller, a sixth round draft pick by Baltimore in 2015, had just 18 career catches before exploding this season.
Tyrell Williams, the Raiders’ top wideout, has been declared out with a toe injury. That means Oakland’s top three will be the pedestrian trio of ex-Packer Trevor Davis, former Cowboy and Giant Dwayne Harris and rookie fifth round pick Hunter Renfrow.
ADVANTAGE: Raiders
OFFENSIVE LINE
Oakland’s offensive line was one of the worst in football in 2018, but has improved dramatically.
The Raiders made ex-Patriot Trent Brown the highest-paid offensive lineman in the history of the NFL (four years, $66 million) last offseason. To date, Brown has been the best right tackle in football and has been worth the huge investment. Brown (calf) is doubtful to go Sunday, though, meaning monstrous David Sharpe (6-6, 343) would likely get the nod.
Left tackle Kolton Miller, a first round draft pick in 2018, was brutal as a rookie, but is having a strong second season. Center Rodney Hudson, now in his ninth year, remains one of the best in the business.
Right guard Gabe Jackson, who signed a $56 million extension two years ago, is poised to make his 2019 debut after suffering an MCL strain in training camp. Left guard Richie Incognito, now 36, was signed in late-May and has played surprisingly well.
Green Bay left tackle David Bakhtiari, an elite player the last two seasons, hasn't played to that level in 2019 and has been flagged four times for holding.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
DEFENSIVE LINE
Green Bay entered Week 6 ranked 26th in the league in rushing defense (138.2) and 31st in yards per carry (5.2). The Packers moved up to 23rd (124.5) and 26th (4.9) in those categories after limiting the Lions to 56 rushing yards on 20 carries (2.8) last week.
Defensive end Dean Lowry played arguably his best game of the year.
Raiders coach Jon Gruden hired former-Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther to run his defense. Guenther has since torn it down and built it back nearly from scratch.
Guenther runs a 4-3, zone based scheme and is known as a brilliant blitz designer.
While the Raiders don't have household names up front, they rank sixth in rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.7) and 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (92.0). Oakland has just nine sacks, though, which ranks 28th.
Clelin Ferrell, the Raiders’ first round draft pick and the fourth overall selection in April, is off to a slow start (one sack), but could be a star. Defensive end Benson Mayowa, now on his fourth team and in his second stint with Oakland, has a team-high 4.5 sacks.
ADVANTAGE: Even
LINEBACKERS
Green Bay’s Preston Smith ranks third in the NFL with 7.0 sacks, while Za’Darius Smith ranks fifth (6.0). When each player gets near the quarterback, they’re finishing.
B.J. Goodson, a player the Packers’ traded for in early September, is playing more than 2018 third round draft pick Oren Burks. Outside linebacker Kyler Fackrell is also playing more than 2019 first round pick Rashan Gary.
Oakland was dealt a blow when Vontaze Burfict was suspended on Sept. 30 for the rest of 2019 following a helmet-to-helmet hit on Colts tight end Jack Doyle.
Strongside linebacker Tahir Whitehead, a former Lion, is Oakland’s top player in this group and the Raiders’ leading tackler. Weakside linebacker Nicholas Morrow is a former Division III player who moves well, while middle linebacker Justin Phillips recently was promoted from the practice squad.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
SECONDARY
Packers cornerback Kevin King was picked on for gains of 58 and 66 yards last week. Safety Will Redmond, who’s playing for the injured Darnell Savage (ankle), is an aggressive, attacking safety who can be exposed.
The Raiders rank 22nd in passing yards allowed per game (263.6) and 26th in opposing quarterback rating (103.9). Some of that is due to mediocre play in the secondary, but some is also from a lack of pass rush.
Third-year man Gareon Conley is the Raiders’ top corner. Cornerback Daryl Worley, who was picked on last season, has been much improved in 2019.
Oakland suffered a blow when rookie first round strong safety Johnathan Abram was lost to a torn rotator cuff injury in Week 1. Karl Joseph, a 2016 first round pick, has stepped in for Abram. Free safety Lamarcus Joyner, an ex-Ram, is undersized (5-8, 191), but can cover and hit.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Packers traded return ace Trevor Davis to Oakland on Sept. 18 and likely regret that move today.
Green Bay’s return game is a mess. On Monday, rookie Darrius Shepherd showed no burst on his five kickoffs (17.4), and tried catching a punt that was over his head. Shepherd fumbled and Detroit’s Tavon Wilson recovered.
Despite Shepherd’s horrendous outing, Green Bay insists it will stick with him this week.
On the opposite sideline, Davis is a dynamic kickoff and punt returner, while Dwayne Harris (43.7) is a sensational kick returner.
Raiders punter A.J. Cole, who went undrafted in 2019 and signed with Oakland after participating on a tryout basis at the team’s rookie mini-camp, is off to a strong start (47.2). Kicker Daniel Carlson, the leading scorer in the history of Southeastern Conference, was released by Minnesota early in his rookie year of 2018. Carlson has been terrific for the Raiders, though, where he’s made 20-of-22 field goals (90.9%).
ADVANTAGE: Raiders
COACHING
Oakland’s Jon Gruden, who was out of the league for nine years, was given a 10-year contract in 2018 to reverse the fortunes of this once-proud franchise. Gruden is on his second stint with the Raiders (1998-2001) and also won a Super Bowl in Tampa Bay (2002).
Gruden has a brilliant offensive mind and is one of the league’s all-time grinders. Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock are in the process of overhauling the roster, and after last year’s four-win season, the duo is starting to see progress.
Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur is the first coach in franchise history to begin his rookie season 5-1.
ADVANTAGE: Raiders
PREDICTION: Packers 23, Raiders 21
