Just as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced a cyclone alert for the Gujarat coast and a Yellow Message in view of the approaching extremely severe cyclone Maha, it has also hinted that a cyclone is brewing in the Bay of Bengal.

LINK: http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/allindiawxfcbulletin.php

The IMD located Maha over West-Central and the adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea, about 670 km West-South-West of Porbandar (Gujarat), 720 km West-South-West of Veraval (Gujarat), and 770 km West-South-West of Diu at 5.30 am this (Tuesday) morning.

Maha may maintain its intensity, while slowly shifting its direction to the North for a brief interval and, may, thereafter move rapidly East-North-East (executing a U-turn) with a gradual weakening.

Maha is expected to cross the Gujarat coast between Diu and Porbandar as a conventional cyclone, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 70-80 km/hr, gusting to 90 km/hr by early Thursday morning.

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At the same time, things are getting hot in the Bay of Bengal, with yesterday's (Monday) low-pressure area over the North Andaman Sea intensifying as a well-marked low-pressure area the same night, earlier than expected.

It has moved West-North-West and has concentrated into a depression, and lay centred over East-Central and the adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal and the North Andaman Sea early this (Tuesday) morning.

This was about 150 km West-North-West of Maya Bandar (Andaman Islands); 950 km South-South-East of Paradip (Odisha); 1,020 km South-South-East of Sagar Islands (Bengal); and 1,000 km South-South-West of Khepupara (Bangladesh).

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The depression is expected to intensify into a deep depression into the night (Tuesday) and into a cyclone on Wednesday/ Thursday. It may continue to move West-North-West initially, and then North-North-West towards the Odisha-Bengal coasts, the IMD said without giving a timeline for landfall.

The causative low-pressure area for this building cyclone in the Bay was borne out by a remnant of erstwhile tropical storm Matmo that crossed the Vietnam coast a couple of days ago.

The IMD's projected track and intensity point to a very severe cyclone in the making in the Bay, with the East Coast under threat.

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Reverting back to extremely severely cyclone Maha, which is scheduled to approach the Gujarat coast weakened as conventional cyclone, the IMD has pointed to the possibility of the storm remnants setting up an interaction with an incoming western disturbance over North-West India (which itself was responsible for shifting Maha's track towards Gujarat and deflecting the Bay cyclone away from the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coasts).

Rain alert for West, North-West India

This interaction will trigger heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over the Gujarat and Saurashtra coasts on Wednesday and Thursday, in what would likely be another harsh non-seasonal spell for farmers.

Isolated heavy falls have been forecast for regions as far apart as Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh on Thursday.

Gujarat : Light to moderate rainfall at most places, with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra and Gujarat (Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Surat, Bharuch, Anand, Ahmedabad, Botad, Porbandar, Rajkot) on Tuesday, and isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Bhavnagar, Surat, Bharuch, Anand, Ahmedabad, Botad, Vadodara on Thursday.

Maharashtra : Light to moderate rainfall at most places, with isolated heavy falls over Madhya Maharashtra and North Konkan (Palghar and Thane districts) on Wednesday and the northern-most districts of Madhya Maharashtra on Thursday 7.

Wind warning

Gujarat , Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli : Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 km/hr, gusting to 60 km/hr, to commence over the North-East Arabian Sea, along and off the Gujarat coast from Wednesday to Thursday morning.

It is very likely to accelerate to 70-80 km/hr, gusting to 90 km/hr, along and off Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Diu, Amreli districts; 60-70 km/hr, gusting to 80 km/hr over Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Anand, Ahmedabad, Botad, Porbandar, Rajkot districts; and 50-60 km/hr, gusting to 70 km/hr over Surat, Navsari, Valsad, Daman and Dadra & Nagar Haveli from Wednesday evening, for the next 12 hours. It will decrease thereafter.

Maharashtra : Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 km/hr, gusting to 60 km/hr, likely along and off the Maharashtra coast from Wednesday morning, may increase to 50-60 km/hr, gusting to 70 km/hr from the evening along and off Palghar and Thane districts for the next 12 hours.

Detailed warnings with respect to the sea condition, warning to fishermen and expected damage to buildings/ houses, roads and other infrastructure are available at the link below:

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/alert_view.php?ff=20191105_al_1179

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