Sessions' entry sets up wild GOP Senate race

It’s not quite a rewind to the wilder days of Alabama elections — like the Democratic gubernatorial primaries in 1958 and 1978 that drew 14 and 13 candidates, respectively.

However, Jeff Sessions’ non-surprising decision to try to regain the U.S. Senate seat he held for two decades before joining President Donald Trump’s cabinet as attorney general has certainly thrown a drop or two of acetylene on what already was poised to be a heated Republican primary race next year.

Eight GOP candidates are bidding to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Doug Jones, who has no opposition.

With apologies to state Rep. Arnold Mooney of Shelby County, who’s run some television ads touting his conservative credentials, former businessman and evangelist Stanley Adair and community activist Ruth Page Nelson, there are five serious candidates: U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne, R-Fairhope; Secretary of State John Merrill; former Chief Justice Roy Moore; former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville — and Sessions.

That’s a high-powered field — so who’s going to win? Well, if we knew that with certainty, we’d be enriching ourselves in Las Vegas. (You can put down a bet on anything there).

Here’s a little analysis, though, four months ahead of the primary. (It’s actually going to be a short campaign compared to the never-ending race for the presidency.)

First, each of the top contenders is as conservative as you can get. Anyone who drops the epithet “RINO” in this campaign is just being silly.

Sessions’ time as attorney general didn’t go well, as he drew Trump’s enmity for recusing himself from the investigation of alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential race and eventually was forced out.

Trump has had nasty things to say about Sessions then and now, but indicated in an interview last week that he wouldn’t campaign against him. Perhaps Sessions’ first campaign ad — in which he expressed “full support” for the president — had something to do with that.

However, don’t be surprised if Sessions’ rivals start poking at the Trump-Sessions relationship. Byrne was pictured in Trump’s box during Saturday’s Alabama-LSU football game in Tuscaloosa, and said after Sessions entered the race that Alabama needs a senator “who will stand with the president and won’t run away and hide from the fight.”

Tuberville went on the attack like he was back on the sideline coaching, trying to put an opponent away. He accused Sessions in a tweet of failing Trump “at his point of highest need” and put out an ad highlighting some of the president’s most venomous remarks about the former senator.

Some observers believe Moore, who barely lost to Jones in the 2017 special election for the Senate seat in the wake of accusations of sexual assault dating back decades, may finally have worn out his welcome. Don’t bet on it. He has a devoted cadre of followers who see him as a paladin marching as to war, with the Cross of Jesus going on before (apologies to Sabine Baring-Gould and Arthur Sullivan). They will vote for him regardless of how many people — including Trump — say bad things about him or how many obstacles are placed in their path.

Merrill has been an effective secretary of state — we’ve praised his efforts multiple times in this space — and is touting his success as a “conservative reformer” in his campaign appearances. However, wonder how much staying power he’ll have, or if he’ll get drowned out, with the heat that the other top candidates are going to generate.

Prediction: Byrne, Sessions and Tuberville will play “can you top this” as far as who’s most closely tied to Trump, in a state where support for the president is arguably the most intense. If those three beat up on each other too badly, it could open the door for Moore with his solid bloc of support to earn a runoff spot, and create some consternation for a lot of Republicans in both Alabama and Washington, D.C. Merrill looks like a spoiler.

Tune in after March 3 to see if we’re on target or skittering through the ozone.