After 72 years of bitter dispute, punctuated by three wars and many skirmishes between India and Pakistan (both now nuclear weapon powers), innumerable acts of terrorism and rising human rights abuses, the time has come for a serious effort to resolve the half-forgotten Kashmir crisis. The international community, led by the U.S. and the U.K., needs to play a role in this effort.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decree stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special status took formal effect this month, with the territory being split in two, both territories directly administered from Delhi. Hundreds of thousands of Indian troops are trying to keep the peace, as political leaders are detained, internet services cut and local movement restricted.
This is a retrograde step which has inevitably raised tensions further between India and Pakistan, who have fought over the sovereignty of Kashmir ever since independence in 1947. In such a febrile atmosphere, there is a real risk that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) will be tempted once again to promote militant infiltration across the disputed Line of Control, leading to further acts of terrorism in Kashmir or other parts of India, which in turn could trigger military conflict between the two nuclear weapon states.
Activists from AIDWA hold placards during a protest against the 100 days of oppression on people of ... [+]
This is not fanciful speculation. Following a terrorist attack on the Indian parliament in 2001, which the Indian Government blamed on Pakistan, both sides mobilized their armed forces and it took intensive international diplomatic and political pressure by the U.S. and U.K. to get both sides to back down. In February this year, both countries conducted air strikes across the border (and an Indian fighter jet was shot down in Pakistan territory) and further shelling took place just a few weeks ago.
The main victims of this latest Kashmir crisis are of course the Kashmiri people themselves, who have seen their freedoms and human rights once again trampled on. But Pakistan has suffered too from the long running crisis–its economic development since independence has been distorted by bloated military spending and its democracy compromised by the army exploiting the perceived threat from India and the division of Kashmir. Nor is it cost free for India–it finds its itself once again in the dock of international opinion, criticised by international human rights organisations, its reputation as the world’s largest democracy tarnished and its global ambitions dented.
But the wider international community is also affected. India’s latest action is bound to increase the levels of disaffection and extremism in the majority Muslim population of Kashmir. That in turn risks increased radicalisation of Kashmiri populations in the West. In the U.K., around 60% of the 1.5 million British nationals of Pakistan origin come from the Mirpur area of Pakistan controlled Kashmir, and so are deeply affected by what happens in Kashmir. So, there could be national security implications for the U.K.
There are potentially financial costs too. After the military stand-off in 2001/2, the British Government estimated that a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan could cost the U.K. up to £20 billion, as a result of the threat to British nationals in the region, increased migration pressures, lost business opportunities and humanitarian and reconstruction costs.
More widely, the Kashmir crisis is a threat to the authority of the UN and the rules-based international system, at a time when that system is already threatened by e.g. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and China’s militarisation of the South China Sea. Multiple Security Council resolutions dating back to the 1940s and 1950s calling for a plebiscite to give Kashmiris a say in their future have been ignored by India. That remains a concern for all countries that believe in, and rely on, a properly functioning rules based international order.
The concern felt in the U.K. by the latest turn of events in Kashmir was highlighted last week at a panel discussion in which I participated at Chatham House in London. As Abdurrehman Chinoy, a London-based entrepreneur at the event, commented: "The South Asian community in the U.K. is very dynamic and generally tolerant towards each other. It can also influence policy and ideas back home in India and Pakistan. We need now a dialogue to finally resolve the Kashmir issue, so that the communities can continue to live peacefully alongside each other outside the sub-continent."
For all these reasons, I believe that the international community has a strong interest in helping to resolve the Kashmir crisis. The U.K. has a particular responsibility–when the British partitioned India in 1947, in their haste to leave the subcontinent, they failed to tackle the well-known differences over Kashmir, thus creating an explosive bone of contention between India and Pakistan that has plagued the region ever since.
And yet, a bit like with the Israel/Palestine dispute, the elements of a peaceful solution to the Kashmir crisis are well known. They are not dissimilar to the Good Friday agreement on Northern Ireland: no change of sovereignty, but a soft border between the two halves of Kashmir allowing free movement for the local population and the establishment of some cross-border institutions covering, for instance, tourism and the environment. But, again as in the Middle East, the political stars have never quite been aligned for this agreement to be finalised. They came closest in 2006/7, when, following extensive back channel dialogue, agreement along these lines was hammered out and endorsed by both the Pakistan and Indian leadership at the time. But, unfortunately, the political environment in Pakistan began to fray in early 2007 and India decided to delay the deal and the opportunity was then lost, as Indian public opinion understandably hardened following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai in 2008.
In my view, the time has come to try again. The international community should make a further effort to stimulate talks between India and Pakistan, before this latest crisis leads to more conflict and makes any peaceful solution impossible.
