Bank on Mullins to have weekend team in 'Klassical' shape

Some horses will be primed and ready to go, while others need one or more warm-up runs before hitting their peak. No horse is the same as another, but I do find that trainers follow certain patterns.

One short-cut I've found in November is to focus on yards that train their horse with a view to winning first time out.

It doesn't always work, and as I say every horse has its own style which you have to look into, but if you take a look at the data for horses running in the month of November which haven't raced in 180 days or more, there are some quite striking findings when it comes to trainers.

I ran a report on such horses from 2008 to the present, and to make sure the sample sizes were reliable, I only included trainers who had at least 100 qualifiers.

By far, the best of the lot was Willie Mullins and you can trust his horses to be primed and ready during the month of November. Since 2008, he's had 311 November runners which hadn't raced in 180 days or more - and 127 of those won, an impressive strike-rate of 41 per cent.

Considering Mullins' overall strike-rate for all races is 26 per cent, those figures are quite significant. In fact, had you backed each of those 311 runners, you'd have almost broke even to traditional SP, or made a healthy profit of 21 points if betting to Betfair SP.

We are already halfway through November but he's had a few such winners this year, most notably Douvan, which won on Thursday after a 569-day absence, although granted that lay-off was mostly down to injury. Nicky Henderson is next on the list, but still quite a bit behind with a strike-rate of 32 per cent for November horses returning after a break, with Harry Fry in third at 25 per cent.

Those three trainers contrast drastically with someone like Gary Moore, who has had 13 winners from 175 bets, a strike-rate of just seven per cent. On that basis, you'd have to avoid such runners from the likes of Moore, although at 12 per cent it must be noted that his overall strike-rate is lower than Mullins'.

I've dished out a lot of figures in this column but I'm acutely aware that the only figure that counts is the profit or loss at the end of the week, so hopefully Mullins' The Big Getaway won't let me down this afternoon in the bumper at Punchestown (3.40). He was last seen 198 days ago at this course when second in a similar race at odds of 4/7.

Following that loss, I can see why some would be reluctant to back him at a short price again today, but of the four horses in the seven-runner field which have actually raced, he's definitely shown the most promise and that was his second time taking the runner-up spot, having finished behind Fiddlerontheroof at Navan on his debut under rules back in March.

The horse that beat him last time, Sixshooter, has since gone on to win a novice recently in really good style, and this looks like a great opportunity for this point-to-point winner to get off the mark.

If an odds-on bet for The Big Getaway doesn't float your boat, consider backing Gordon Elliott's Barra, which has been chalked up at 12/1 in tomorrow's Listed Frontline Security Grabel Mares Hurdle (1.05 Punchestown). There's only five runners here, and Mullins' Stormy Ireland is likely to go off as favourite at around even-money, but I think that's a bit short for a horse which failed to fire at all in the Prix La Barka at Auteuil last time.

Fair enough, it was a Grade Two but she quickly folded when push came to shove. Barra has been racing over fences recently but was a useful enough hurdler in her time and it's very interesting to see her back over the smaller obstacles.

Finally, getting back to today, I'm happy to take odds of 9/4 for Moon Over Germany in the Grade Two Elliott Group Craddockstown Novice Chase (1.25).

Do the double

Soccer

It was great to see Ireland beat New Zealand 3-1 on Thursday, but the real test is on Monday when the Boys in Green take on Denmark, who beat us 5-1 in Dublin in 2017 to end our hopes of World Cup qualification. Ireland have improved since, but we’ve still put the pressure on ourselves after the Switzerland loss. Denmark are favourites at 11/10, but I’m keen both teams to score at 10/11.

Racing

Willie Mullins is the leading trainer in the Morgiana Hurdle (2.0 Punchestown) with nine wins – including three from Hurricane Fly – and it’s hard to get away from Klassical Dream which looks nailed on today, albeit at a very short price around 4/7. Unbeaten since arriving in Ireland, the Supreme Novices’ winner looks the real deal and can take another step towards the 2020 Champion Hurdle.

* Last week’s double was successful at an overall price of 11/4

Each-way

David O’Meara’s So Beloved has been around the block with 66 career races, the last win being 42 races ago back in 2016. But, in fairness, he’s been keeping good company and a lot of those contests were Group or Listed, and he’s been going reasonably well lately back down in handicaps. He hasn’t raced at Lingfield since winning a handicap in 2014, but he’s back today for the Bombardier Golden Beer Handicap (1.0) and odds of 12/1 make appeal. His rating is on the slide from 105 earlier on this year to today’s 96, and that gives him a real chance of making the placings at least, having gone well in the Balmoral Handicap off 2lbs higher.

Weekend selections

1.0 Lingfield: So Beloved (e/w)

1.25 Punchestown: Moon Over Germany

2.0 Punchestown: Klassical Dream

3.40 Punchestown: The Big Getaway

1.05 Punchestown: Barra (tomorrow)

2.50 Punchestown: Sayo (tomorrow)