Insider: 23 things to watch in must-win game for Colts against Jaguars

INDIANAPOLIS — A Colts team mired in the muck of a two-game losing streak has to find a way to get back on track this week at 1 p.m. Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium (WTTV).

Two short weeks after the Colts looked like a possible AFC contender, Indianapolis (5-4) will be fighting for its playoff life against the Jaguars (4-5). A loss here would leave the Colts in need of a miracle down the stretch; a win would put them back in the thick of the AFC South race. With that in mind, here’s what to watch.

1. Adam Vinatieri. For obvious reasons.

2. The return of Jacoby Brissett looms large against a defense still built around its “Sacksonville” pass rush. The Jaguars are tied for fifth in the NFL with 30 sacks this season. Brissett’s mobility is something of a question — Frank Reich wouldn’t say his quarterback was back to 100 percent — but his strength and escapability are far ahead of backup Brian Hoyer.

3. For all of those sacks, the Jaguars haven’t forced many turnovers this season, producing only 10. Brissett’s return is going to make it difficult for Jacksonville to turn around that trend this week. In two games of playing time, Hoyer turned the ball over six times, as many turnovers as Brissett has had the entire season. The negative effects of taking too many chances have been on display the past two weeks; Brissett’s going to limit those chances.

4. Brissett is still working with far less than a full deck at wide receiver. T.Y. Hilton is out for the third consecutive game, and since he was drafted, the Colts have never won a game he’s missed. Indianapolis is also still missing Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell. With all three of them out last week, Colts wide receivers had just five catches last week, and the trio of Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson and Chester Rogers has to play above its prior production.

5. Eric Ebron is in dire need of a season-changing performance. After calling for the ball last week, Ebron was given 12 targets, but he caught only five, let the ball get ripped away from him in the end zone and struggled to connect with Hoyer. If the game plan gives him chances again, he has to make more out of them.

6. Mo Alie-Cox is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game, and if the blocking tight end can’t go, it’s a significant loss for the ground game. Alie-Cox is considered a key part of the running game, and Ebron can’t replicate his power.

7. A Colts running game that has been far too uneven the last couple of weeks must take advantage of a Jaguars defense that has been terrible on the ground this season. Jacksonville ranks 22nd in rush yards allowed (120.2 per game) and 29th in yards per carry (4.94). If the Indianapolis offensive line can shake off whatever cobwebs plagued them against the Dolphins, Marlon Mack should be the offense’s driving engine in this game.

8. A good running game would play a key role for Brissett. Churn out yards on the ground, and the Colts will be in second-and-short and third-and-short, making it easier for Brissett to get the ball out quickly.

9. Anthony Castonzo and Braden Smith are going to have their hands full. Jacksonville rookie Josh Allen (7 sacks) and third-year rusher Yannick Ngakoue (4) are deadly off the edge, and Dawuane Smoot has four sacks as a reserve rusher.

10. The experienced hand on the defensive line is Calais Campbell, who has 5.5 sacks and can line up inside and outside. Expect him to get a lot of work on the left side of the defensive line, against Smith and Mark Glowinski.

11. If Jordan Wilkins (ankle) isn’t able to play, Nyheim Hines is going to have to play a big role, both in the running game and the passing attack. Hoyer missed Hines in the progression too many times last week; if the Jaguars secondary has everything covered downfield, Hines needs to be able to turn checkdowns into first downs.

12. Jacksonville no longer has Jalen Ramsey, but A.J. Bouye is still a force at cornerback. The other cornerback, Tre Herndon, is a former undrafted free agent in his second season, and the Colts wide receivers need to make the most of those matchups.

13. Brissett must make sure Indianapolis gets back to playing good situational football in his return. Up until last week, the Colts had been great on third down, fourth down and in the red zone, but Indianapolis failed on both of its fourth-down tries, converted just 5 of 13 on third down and scored just one touchdown in five trips to the red zone. Brissett’s return should help.

14. The Jacksonville offense is something of an unknown. Nick Foles, the quarterback Reich guided to a Super Bowl in Philadelphia, is back after breaking his clavicle in the season opener, and the offense is likely going to look different under his guidance than it did with Gardner Minshew at the helm.

15. Jacksonville’s offensive line has been in the middle of the pack in pass protection, giving up 22 sacks this season, but the return of Foles might mean the ball comes out of the pocket a lot faster, making it more difficult to get home for sacks.

16. Leonard Fournette has been a force this season, ranking third in the NFL in rushing with 831 yards and second on the Jaguars with 40 catches. Slow down Fournette, and the Colts defense has a good chance to slow down Jacksonville overall.

17. Second-year receiver D.J. Chark has blossomed into a bona fide No. 1 target, and with Pierre Desir likely still out due to a hamstring injury, the trio of Rock Ya-Sin, Kenny Moore and Marvell Tell is going to have its hands full with him. Chark has 43 catches for 692 yards and six touchdowns this season.

18. Chark also has his help back. Dede Westbrook battled injury earlier this year, but when he’s been available, he has 32 catches for 383 yards, and he’s dynamic enough to get work done if the Colts blanket Chark.

19. Jacksonville is completely healthy, a rarity for any team’s 53-man roster. With all hands on deck and coming off of a bye, the Jaguars are going to be fresh.

20. Minshew created problems with his legs as a scrambler, rushing for 235 yards this season. Foles is more of a pocket passer, and that takes an element away from the Jacksonville offense, which hasn’t had much of a secondary rusher besides Fournette.

21. In a bad year for kickers around the NFL, Jacksonville’s Josh Lambo is perfect on field goals and has missed just one extra point.

22. Jacksonville’s ground game has been good this season, good for ninth in the NFL, but the Jaguars have also been somewhat spotty. There were 200-yard outbursts against Denver and Cincinnati, but Jacksonville has also been held under 100 yards four times, and the Indianapolis run defense is playing very well.

23. Darius Leonard was terrifying last week. If the Colts can get that kind of turnover production again, from Leonard or from somebody else, they should win the turnover battle, given Brissett’s return.