National Weather and Temperatures: Monday, January 27

West and South India saw a deficit in rainfall during the first three weeks of January (January 1 to 21) while North-West, Central, East and North-East India recorded normal to excess rainfall. Among the meteorological subdivisions in these regions, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Saurashtra & Kutch, Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka and most of the South Peninsula recorded deficit, scanty or no rainfall.

The eastern parts of Gujarat and Konkan & Goa topped the rain deficit charts with -100 per cent each, while Andaman & Nicobar Islands, North Interior Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, and Tamil Nadu & Puducherry were only slightly better.

South peninsula sees hot winter

Global weather models have been hinting at the possibility that Peninsular India, especially the southern parts, may heat up abnormally during the impending spring/summer. Indications to this effect have already been evident in how some parts in these regions — such as Coastal Karnataka and Kerala — have experienced a ‘hot winter’ with day temperatures shooting past the normal by 3-5 degrees Celsius. But January-based forecasts put out by these models do not show any significant deficit in rainfall for any of these areas.

Meanwhile, an active (weather-creating) western disturbance is expected to enter North-West India today, having already reached North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. It may cause fairly widespread to widespread rain/snow over the hills of North-West India with isolated heavy rain/snow over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh tomorrow (Tuesday) and over Uttarakhand on Wednesday.

Detailed forecast for the region

Today: Thunderstorms accompanied by hail and lightning at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Rajasthan and with lightning at isolated places over Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Strong wind (speeds reaching 45-55 kmh) over North-West and West-Central Arabian Sea (indicating the reach of the western disturbance to the South). Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea.

Tuesday: Heavy rain/snow at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Thunderstorms accompanied by hail and lightning at a few places over Punjab and Haryana and Chandigarh; isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan; and with lightning at isolated places over Madhya Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Odisha.

Wednesday: Heavy rain/snow likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand. Dense to very dense fog over Punjab and Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi; Dense fog in isolated parts over Rajasthan. Thunderstorms accompanied by hail and lightning at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and with lightning at isolated places over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Jharkhand, Bihar, plains of Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Warming impact of western disturbance

An extended outlook valid until February 1 said that minimum temperatures may rise gradually, by 3-5 degrees Celsius over North-West India (thanks to the moisture presence and warming effect of the western disturbance). No significant change in the rest of the country during the next two days and a 3-5 degrees Celsius fall over North-West and East India thereafter, as the western disturbance would have left the country. Shallow to moderate fog is likely in the morning hours over Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand and Odisha tomorrow and the day after.

This (morning, dense to very dense fog was observed over parts of Punjab and East Uttar Pradesh while it was moderate over isolated parts of West Uttar Pradesh. Ambala and Bahraich with reported visibility falling to 25 metres or below and below 200 metres in Bareilly.

Yesterday, the maximum temperature of 36.8 degrees Celsius was recorded at Punalur (Kerala) and the lowest of 4.4 degrees Celsius was at Bahraich (East Uttar Pradesh) over the plains of the country.

New Delhi was at 14 degrees Celsius and cloudy at 10 am this (Monday) morning. Mumbai was overcast at 27 degrees Celsius, clearly impacted by the western disturbance, while Kolkata was slightly cooler at 19 degrees Celsius but mostly sunny.

In the South, a light fog hung over Chennai, holding the mercury level at 28 degrees Celsius.

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