Denver Post Broncos writer Ryan O’Halloran posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season.
You can pose a Broncos- or NFL-related question for the Broncos Mailbag here. Follow Ryan for more daily updates on Twitter.
I see frequent comments about general manager John Elway drafting poorly. On the other hand, I understand drafts are a crap-shoot by nature. Has anyone done a comparison of, say, the five- to 10-year draft records of all NFL teams, or, better yet, the overall records of each current NFL management team? (Can we identify the top shot-caller on each team?) What percentage of their drafted players stayed in the NFL, started, or made All-Pro — with adjustments to compensate for what the number of all the picks were? I’m curious if the Broncos’ overall draft record is good, bad, or in the middle of the pack. Somebody must be tracking that.
— Randy Welch, Denver
That sounds like a massive project, Randy. The way I look at somebody’s success rate is a) Did the draft pick receive a second contract? … and b) What was the hit rate on first-rounders? Of the players eligible for a second deal in Elway’s drafts (2011-16), Von Miller, Derek Wolfe, Jeff Heuerman and Andy Janovich. signed second contracts. That’s it. This offseason, that percentage could change if the Broncos re-sign Justin Simmons and Connor McGovern from Janovich’s 2016 draft class. Elway has made eight first-round picks. So far, only Miller has signed a second deal. Sylvester Williams, Bradley Roby, Shane Ray and Paxton Lynch didn’t. Again, that’s it. Garrett Bolles, Bradley Chubb and Noah Fant are still playing on their rookie deals.
Take them for what they are worth, but many mock drafts have the Broncos taking a receiver in the first round. While that is definitely an area to address in this draft, the Broncos should be using their draft capital to shore up the offensive line, a defensive quarterback-type linebacker or cornerback as it is very likely that Chris Harris is going to leave. That said, I believe it is imperative for them to be aggressive, but smart and move up targeting the likes of Jeff Okudah (Ohio State), Isaiah Simmons (Clemson), Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) and Andrew Thomas (Georgia). They must be able to hit on their first-round pick as an impact player.
— Chad Matejicka, Cedar Grove, N.J.
If the Broncos don’t sign a veteran receiver, drafting one in the first round makes sense. Ditto for a cornerback regardless of whether Chris Harris re-signs. I get a lot of emails about the offensive line in the first round, but there appears to be good value at guard after the first round. Like it or not, the Broncos are committed to (stuck with?) left tackle Garett Bolles and right tackle Ja’Wuan James this year. Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons would be a perfect fit because he’s so versatile and can play in space. But the Broncos would have to trade way up from No. 15 to get him.
I have always loved the Broncos, but have been very frustrated the last few years. I should feel lucky to follow them because a lot of other teams have had a lot more bad seasons. I hope this draft gives us even more hope we get back to good years!
— Kirk, Fort Collins
I’ll take Kirk’s comment and turn it into some analysis. Kansas City’s Super Bowl win on Sunday night was its first in 50 years … in its first appearance in 50 years. During that span, the Broncos played in eight Super Bowls (three wins). The Raiders last won a Super Bowl in 1983 and have appeared in the game only one other time. The Chargers have played in one Super Bowl (a loss) in their history. The Broncos’ fan base is used to success, which fuels their frustration during lean times. That doesn’t excuse the last four years, though.
I am a firm believer that the game is won in the trenches, both offensively and defensively. I would like the Broncos to select either Javon Kinlaw, the stud defensive lineman from South Carolina, or the big offensive tackle Mekhi Becton from Louisville. Either way, Denver would upgrade their line play. They can address receiver, linebacker and cornerback in the later rounds. What do you think?
— Kenny Wikler, Lake Oswego, Ore.
I wrote about Kinlaw during my trip to the Senior Bowl. He was regarded as the best player during the week of practices but did not play in the game (knee). Watching Kinlaw’s tape is interesting. He has flash plays and then some plays where he may have had a tackle if he didn’t let up. But he’ll be a high first-round pick, maybe even in the top 10. Becton is an interesting prospect. He’s gigantic (listed at 6-foot-7 and 365 pounds) and he proved to be consistent enough to start all 33 games of his college career. If the Broncos use a first-round pick on an offensive tackle, we’ll find out for real what they think of Bolles and James.
OK, Ryan. You’ve been given the keys to be the Broncos’ new general manager. How would you build a team to beat the Chiefs? As much as I love our defense, I feel like we need more speed in the secondary. And a beefed-up offense to counteract Kansas City’s. What do you think?
— Michael, Castle Rock
Well, John Elway’s parking spot would be the first perk — literally 15 steps to get inside the building. Great question about how to overtake the Chiefs. Does it mean loading up on cornerbacks to account for Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman? Does it mean adding a linebacker to cover Travis Kelce? Or does it mean getting in an arms race and adding offensive skill to keep up with the Chiefs’ offense? My lean as Broncos general manager would be to fortify cornerback (free agency and first-round pick) and linebacker (draft). The Broncos scored one touchdown — one! — against Kansas City this year. That exhibits the gulf.
Are we going to lock in on a deal with Justin Simmons? The man has been a tour de force for the Broncos and I feel like he’ll be among the best safeties in team history when it’s all said and done. What’s holding Elway from wrapping up a contract?
— James Tran, Parker
At the very least, the Broncos will use the franchise tag on Simmons, which would keep him in the fold while also trying to work out a long-term deal by mid-July. Nothing is holding Elway up at this point. Remember, he just changed chief negotiators, hiring Rich Hurtado last week. Once Hurtado gets up to speed, he can maybe touch base with Simmons’ agent, Todd France, with whom he used to work with.
Do you think the Broncos will make much of a splash in free agency? We need someone new at left tackle. And if linebacker Cory Littleton is available, we should make a run at him.
— Tyson, Denver
They have the money to make a splash. According to Over The Cap, the Broncos have $61.9 million available space and that number will grow once they make some decisions on veteran players. Simmons will take up a chunk of that, but the call for Elway is which holes to fill in free agency (costly) and which can wait until the draft (more cost effective). Littleton had 125 and 134 tackles the last two years for the Los Angeles Rams and he figures to depart. If Vic Fangio feels he can cover effectively, that would be a nice pick-up.
Subscribe to our Broncos Insider newsletter to get the latest team news sent straight to your inbox.
