After successful primary, some thoughts on what's next

Congratulations to New Hampshire, its volunteers, voters and Secretary of State Bill Gardner. The First-in-the-Nation Primary 2020 is over and it’s time to reflect on it and look to the future.

In the wake of the disgraceful Iowa Caucus debacle, there were calls for national political parties to review the order of states in the primary process. The “lack of diversity” in Iowa and New Hampshire were called out as a reason we shouldn’t be granted the honor of being the #FITN. The results in New Hampshire and the success of the voting process should tell the decision makers: don’t throw the New Hampshire baby out with Iowa’s bathwater. Democratic primary voters chose a self-described socialist first, a gay man second, and a woman third. I’d say that’s pretty diverse. At least as diverse as the candidate field itself. It went off without a hitch. I heard of not one irregularity in the voting process. I heard of no challenges to the legitimacy of the results.

Iowa’s problem was twofold — basic incompetence and faulty technology. In New Hampshire, we employ a low-tech way of voting. Paper ballots, a black marker and counting machines. Thousands of volunteers worked in every polling location in the state to ensure the integrity of the process, as overseen by our longtime secretary of state, who has worked for decades to ensure a successful voting system and maintain our status in the presidential nominating process. Great job, 603! We have, yet again, consummated our status in the process of choosing a president,

What do the results show us?

Bernie Sanders came in first, as predicted. Not predicted? Literally everything else.

In 2016, Bernie also won here, but did so by 22% over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, he got less than 2% more than a newcomer to the national stage, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. This is telling about the electorate of this great state — voters do their research, consider closely each candidate and independently and are willing to give someone who started with no money, no name recognition, and was a blank slate to people here, the opportunity to be heard and considered. Moving the #FITN to a large “more diverse” state like California, would never allow a Mayor Pete (I call him that because I can’t pronounce his last name) a chance. A close third was Sen. Amy Klobuchar. A third-term U.S. senator from Minnesota who, 10 days earlier, no one predicted would come in where she did. It wouldn’t have happened in a state you can only campaign via advertising.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren came in a distant fourth and her campaign is effectively over. If you can’t even get double-digits in the state you share a media market with, where you have close to 100% name recognition before you announce, you aren’t going further.

Of course, let’s not forget fifth-place Joe Biden, even though he forgot our state. Dear Uncle Joe, you broke my heart. You left before all votes were even cast. You jetted off to South Carolina without thanking your team on primary night. You abandoned and dismissed your volunteers, your staff, and your voters and earned not one vote in South Carolina by doing so. Although, I guarantee you lost votes here. I have long defended you to my fellow Republicans, not because of your policies, which I disagree with, but because of your character, which I admire. Your actions that day lacked character and demonstrably sealed your fate in this race to the White House.

While mostly a symbolic vote, the Republicans had a primary too. Not surprisingly, President Trump got 85% of the vote. Surprising? The turnout. Turnout is historically very low in the primary of the incumbent party. There’s a “why bother” mentality, when you know who is easily going to win. However, nearly 130,000 Republican ballots were cast for Donald Trump. In comparison, in 2012, the last time an incumbent was running in a presidential primary, Barack Obama got less than 50,000. What does that tell us? The energy for Donald Trump is very high.

So, now what? My prediction, for what it’s worth: It’s a four-person race. Bernie, Mayor Pete, Sen. Klobuchar and the soon-to-be on a ticket, Michael Bloomberg. He’s the great anomaly. Biden and Warren and every other single-digit-er are done. Some have realized it, others have not. I think Bernie and his self-described socialistic views will start hurting him in the South and will be rejected on Super Tuesday and beyond. Mayor Pete is smart, charismatic and has a great future. He’s simply too young (38) and inexperienced (mayor of a city smaller than Manchester) and as we enter states that haven’t had the chance to meet him, like Granite Staters did, those facts will hurt him. He’s young, he has time. His time is just not now. If Klobuchar can grow and better organize her campaign, she’s one to watch. She’s comparatively moderate, not bombastic, experienced and likable. Can she compete with the money of self-funding billionaire Bloomberg? That’s the question.

I think we’re either going to see Donald Trump take on a woman and personality very different than himself, or a battle of the billionaires, which would be interesting for the Democrats. In either of those scenarios, what’s my prediction for November? Heck if I know. I’m possibly wrong about all of this!

Alicia Preston is a former political consultant and member of the media. She’s a native of Hampton Beach where she lives with her family and three poodles. The opinions expressed are her own. Write to her at PrestonPerspective@gmail.com.