As state Democratic primary date nears, no sense of who is a front-runner in North Dakota

North Dakotans aren’t used to having particularly loud voices in the presidential primary process.

And once again, with little more than a dozen delegates available in the March 10 North Dakota Democratic presidential primary – compared to Minnesota’s 75 and the hundreds of delegates in California, Florida and Texas – North Dakota has gotten a comparatively tiny slice of attention from leading Democratic candidates.

But with the chase for the nomination splintered a half-dozen ways, it’s still unclear which, if any, candidate will win the majority of delegates necessary to clinch the race by mid-July’s Democratic National Convention. And with ad buys and campaign staff flowing to far-flung campaign trail outposts like Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, it’s becoming more likely that every delegate will matter.

That means North Dakota’s comparatively tiny primary will be as important as ever.

"I think broadly speaking, unlike maybe 2016, every vote, every delegate really matters this cycle, in that I don't think we will go into the national convention knowing who the winner is,” said Democratic-NPL chairwoman Kylie Oversen. “And so in a state like North Dakota, yes, there's a smaller number of delegates, but those could mean the difference between winning and losing the nomination."

And this early in the race, Oversen said it's just too soon to say who North Dakotans tend to favor.

"We don't have any polling," she said. "I don't have any sense of favorites."

The Democratic Party’s complex system of “delegates” is central to the nomination race. There are thousands of those delegates for the taking, and they’re apportioned on a state-by-state basis across primary season. In order to win the presidential nomination outright, a candidate must arrive at July’s national convention, to be held in Milwaukee, with a majority of them – nearly 2,000.

Right now, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders appears to be a heavily favored front-runner, winning New Hampshire’s primary and the popular vote in Iowa, though he is by no means assured victory. The political forecasting website FiveThirtyEight.com gives him only a one-in-three chance of winning the nomination outright. That’s longer odds than the two-in-five chance that no candidate earns a clear win, forcing a brokered convention that will decide on a nominee.

North Dakota’s contest, on March 10, will be different than it was before. Previously, the party has held caucuses – oftentimes a complex process mixing public debate and public voting – but this year’s will feature early ballots and a primary-style selection.

The change comes as Democrats nationwide pivot away from the caucus model, which is often held in the evenings or for just a few hours. The events have been criticized for excluding those who might work during those hours, be unable to leave their young children at home or might face some other obstacle to attending.

Voters can request a mail-in ballot by contacting the party at 1-877-455-9367, or by visiting https://demnpl.com/primary . Voters must request the ballots on or before Tuesday, Feb. 25, and they must be postmarked by March 5. Everyone who will be 18 by the date of the November general election is eligible to cast a ballot.

Voters can cast ballots on the day of the election at 14 sites in cities around the state, with addresses listed on the party’s website. Vote will have from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. CT to cast their ballots.

That’s markedly fewer locations than the party once had. Asked to reconcile the party’s interest in a more inclusive caucus with a reduced number of places to vote, Oversen said it was a matter of “efficiency.”

“There's a cost to having more locations, and because we had the vote-by-mail option, there wasn’t a decision made to eliminate (more polling sites),” Oversen said.

Alex Rohr, a spokesman for the state party, said more than 2,000 mail-in ballots already have been requested, forecasting a potential boost in turnout once the caucuses are complete.

Changes in the caucus style could also have an effect on the outcome. Mark Jendrysik, a political scientist at UND, points out that Sanders’ 2016 victory in North Dakota – which he won by a landslide – is likely linked to his campaign’s ability to drive out young, enthusiastic supporters whose schedules and lifestyles allowed them to attend a caucus.

But with shifting caucus rules in 2020 – and a long menu of Democrats to choose from – it's not clear how this year's caucus will unfold

"It's very hard to predict what might happen,” Jendrysik said, pointing out that North Dakota’s early voting has been happening as support for candidates has ebbed and flowed in recent weeks, and also that despite Sanders’ front-runner status, fellow senator and candidate Amy Klobuchar hails from next-door Minnesota.

“Momentum is shifting all over the place,” he said. “It could be we end up with a mixed result, because candidates are still in the race."

That hasn’t stopped observers from trying. Sanders’ greatest obstacle, it’s been widely speculated, is that his far-left, progressive brand of populism can’t take hold beyond the relative fringes of the party. Another theory is that once other moderate candidates drop out, support will coalesce around a relative centrist like former Vice President Joe Biden or South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

"Based on conversations with voters across the state I see support for candidates across the state,” Oversen said. "... The obvious answer is since 2016, I think all us, including experts, are very bad at predicting voter behavior.”

Oversen also added a note of contrition. Her party has suffered major political setbacks in recent decades, surrendering much of the state’s offices to the GOP and losing its last U.S. Senate seat, held by Heidi Heitkamp, in 2018.

“We've failed to do the proper outreach in the past, and we're working to correct that. It's genuine,” she said. “(We’re) working hard to create and enact solutions to the problems that are impacting the well-being of rural communities.”